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Last month, we polled Canadians on the perceived strengths and weaknesses of the Conservative government. In our most recent poll we asked Canadians to articulate what they believed the main strengths and weaknesses of the Liberal Party were.
Of note, both the Conservatives and the Liberals received an overall negative brand score with more Canadians likely to cite a weakness than a strength. However the negative definition of the Conservatives is significantly stronger than that of the Liberals (Conservative defined weaknesses 65%, Liberal defined weaknesses 49%). With the change in leadership for the Liberals, there are still a significant number of Canadians who have yet to cast judgment on the Liberals with one of every two Canadians being unable to articulate a Liberal strength or weakness. This points to the fact that the Liberals still require a significant effort to define themselves and explains the Conservative attempts to fill the Liberal perception void.
The research also suggests that Canadians are more likely to cite the respective leaders as a party weakness than any other factor. Beyond the leader, the Conservative brand has a greater tendency to be driven by performance factors such as managing the economy, being consistent and well organized. The Liberal brand, beyond Ignatieff, tends to be driven by experience and the perception that it is more balanced on issues and is more centrist in its approach.
Looking at the weaknesses of the two parties, there are interesting threads of opinion. For the Conservatives, many of their brand weaknesses relate to their style of politics while for the Liberals their brand weaknesses relate to the past or organizational capabilities.
The latest Nanos poll suggests that the election dialogue between Harper and Ignatieff has lifted the Conservatives in Ontario, at the expense of the Liberals, the NDP and the Greens. We know from other research that Ontarians are more likely to be concerned about the economic downturn than other Canadians. Liberal focus on employment insurance likely has less resonance in Ontario than other regions such as Atlantic Canada and Quebec.
Looking at the longer term trend, the overall national shift has been marginal and shows that it continues to be a tight race between the Conservatives and the Liberals. The poll suggests some regional shifts but no significant national shifts as a result of the Harper Ignatieff election showdown.
If an election occurred at the time of the poll, it would most likely yield yet another minority government. However, this observation does not take into account a number of other factors such as - the election preparedness of the parties, their ability to run a good campaign and the performance of the leaders.
Looking at the net impression scores for the leaders it’s clear that the Tories need to focus on rebuilding Stephen Harper’s brand in the province of Quebec and that the Liberals need to focus on defining the image of Michael Ignatieff - who still lacks significant definition.
The latest Nanos poll helps one understand the overall image of the Conservative government of Canada. By asking Canadians, unprompted, to articulate their views of strengths and weaknesses we can get to the nuance of what people associate with the government without introducing any content or information.
The research indicates that Canadians are more likely to associate weaknesses with the Conservative government as opposed to strengths (65% can articulate a weakness and 36% can articulate a strength). Of concern for the Tories is that one of every five Canadians believes the Conservatives have no strength whatsoever. Comparing that to the 3% who say the Tories have no weakness suggests that the anti-Harper sentiments are much firmer than the pro-Harper sentiments. Likewise, the weaknesses associated with the Conservatives at the time of the survey are linked to many of the former strengths – Stephen Harper himself, transparency in government and economic management.
Properly crafted and validated by the political target, negative ads can be a powerful political tool.
Research by Nanos on the impact of the recent Conservative ads attacking Michael Ignatieff indicates that in the short term they have not had a significant impact. A majority of Canadians consider the ads ineffective and believe that they reflect poorly on the Conservatives.
Of note, the ads have had a marginally negative impact on the impression of Michael Ignatieff primarily among committed Conservative and NDP voters. However, the attack ads have had less of an impact in Atlantic Canada and in battleground Quebec.
Our most recent national poll indicates support for the federal Liberals continues to incrementally trend upwards.
Considering the economy is in the midst of a significant downturn, the Conservatives have generally done well in maintaining their overall support. While they continue to trail the Liberals it’s not realistic for an incumbent government to expect their polling numbers to improve in this economy. The reality is that the Conservatives are still strong in the West and are generally competitive in Ontario. The greatest erosion of Conservative support has occurred in the province of Quebec.
Although the numbers in Quebec for the Conservatives are currently low, one should be cautious because voter volatility in Quebec has historically been much higher than in other parts of the country. A look at Ontario indicates that the Liberals currently have an eight point lead. We know from our research that Ontarians tend to be more concerned about the economy compared to other Canadians and the widening margin could be indicative of increased grumpiness among voters in Ontario.
