CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 35, LP 28, NDP 19, BQ 10, GP 8 (ending October 3)

256 comments Latest by Zab

The latest CPAC-Nanos tracking poll shows a seven point margin for the Harper Conservatives over the Dion Liberals. The Liberals have held on to post debate gains in Quebec but Ontario remains a tie between the Tories and the Grits.

In the post English debate world, however, Stephen Harper and Jack Layton have regained some lost ground on their daily leadership index. The research at this point suggests that the French debate has buoyed the image of Stephane Dion as well as Liberal support in Quebec while the Conservative numbers have slipped in Quebec.

Tune in to Goldhawk Live with Dale Goldhawk tomorrow night at 7 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at Nanos Research.

Methodology and Results A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.

The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 2, 2008.

Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)

Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,008, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)

  • Conservative Party 35 (NC)
  • Liberal Party 28 (-2)
  • NDP 19 (+1)
  • BQ 10% (NC)
  • Green Party 8% (-1)
  • Undecided 16% (NC)

Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,202,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)

  • Conservative leader Stephen Harper 32% (NC)
  • NDP leader Jack Layton 19% (+2)
  • Liberal leader Stephane Dion 17% (-1)
  • Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (-1)
  • Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (-1)
  • None of them 8% (NC)
  • Unsure 17% (NC)

Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:

  • The most trustworthy leader
  • The most competent leader
  • The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future

[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]

  • Stephen Harper 89 (+10)
  • Jack Layton 59 (+11)
  • Stephane Dion 52 (-19)
  • Elizabeth May 18 (+3)
  • Gilles Duceppe 12 (+1)

What do you think?

Cheers, NJN

Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.

Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard

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It seems every time I read a newspaper lately, there are Liberal supporters and ... more

Reg (British Columbia) 04 Oct 14:12

The new 7 point spread of the Conservatives over the Liberals should widen over ... more

westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 04 Oct 14:33

I rest my case, the extreme changes yesterday have corrected themselves, the pr... more

Regina Beach Boy (Saskatchewan) 04 Oct 14:21

Ummmm larryl, the people who work in Fort McMurry also live in Fort McMurry. It... more

Craig (Alberta) 05 Oct 01:30

Well - not really 40. If they hit 39 percent with the current conditions it'll ... more

Foxer (British Columbia) 05 Oct 05:20

Well that is obvious. I live in Calgary and have a bunch of collegues in the ... more

Craig (Alberta) 05 Oct 11:38

Comments

Reg

It seems every time I read a newspaper lately, there are Liberal supporters and candidates complaining about the possibility of the Conservatives getting a majority when "60% of Canadians are opposed to the CPC".

One wonders where these people were when the Liberals under Chretien were getting majority governments when "60% of Canadians are opposed to the Liberal Party."

Any Liberals want to comment???

[updated Sat Oct 04 14:12:21 EDT 2008]

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04 Oct 14:12

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Regina Beach Boy

I rest my case, the extreme changes yesterday have corrected themselves, the previous wild shift in Dion's leadership numbers have dropped by 19 points, close where he was prior to glitch.

Either way, it will be intresting to see where the voting preference numbers move in the next few days, this will reveal where the numbers will stabilize until election day, of course barring any major gaffes by the parties.

[updated Sat Oct 04 14:21:16 EDT 2008]

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04 Oct 14:21

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westerner (suspended)

The new 7 point spread of the Conservatives over the Liberals should widen over the next 2 or 3 days as the rollling average fully recognizes the positive responses from the english debate. Dion is not doing well in the Leadership Index.

Watch for more Liberal dirty tricks as they get more desperate as the campaign comes to a close.

[updated Sat Oct 04 14:33:23 EDT 2008]

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04 Oct 14:33

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Rod_thumb Informed1 (suspended)

Pop! The Balloon called Liberal hope is gone!

[updated Sat Oct 04 17:22:17 EDT 2008]

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04 Oct 17:22

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Reg

There is less than a month until a great election, an election that will decide the next Prime Minister of Canada. The person elected will be the Prime Minister of all Canadians, not just the Liberals, PC's or the NDP. To show our solidarity as Canadians let's all get together and show each other our support for the candidate of our choice. It's time that we all came together. If you support the policies and character of Stephen Harper, please drive with your headlights on during the day. If you support Stephane Dion or that other guy, please drive with your headlights off at night. Thank you and drive carefully

[updated Sat Oct 04 19:23:19 EDT 2008]

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04 Oct 19:23

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Rod_thumb Informed1 (suspended)

What leader(s) of Federal Parties are exhibiting anti-american sentiment in this campaign?

a) Dion
b) Layton
c) May
d) Duceppe
e) Harper

Bonus question what party is claimed if the CPC were elected The Canadian Army could be deployed in our streets?

[updated Sat Oct 04 22:30:11 EDT 2008]

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04 Oct 22:30

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HoldenCaulfield

I have been a member of several discussion boards in the past and I have to admit that I have never been on one where so many right wingers hang out. The number of Western right wingers on here is unusual. I'm left wondering why.

[updated Sun Oct 05 02:36:40 EDT 2008]

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05 Oct 02:36

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Rod_thumb Informed1 (suspended)

Anti-american sentiment by party leaders continue

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/081002/canada/canada_us_politics_canada_col_1

Opposition leaders -- who regularly accuse Harper of harboring an extremist agenda and of taking his orders from Bush -- blamed the prime minister for Canada's sluggish economic growth and said he should do more to help people who had lost their jobs.

"Mr Harper is a fan of the laissez-faire approach to the economy, like Mr Bush, and we can see the disaster unfolding now in the United States," said Gilles Duceppe, leader of the separatist Bloc Quebecois.

The value of Canadian workers' pensions has dropped by C$90 billion ($90 billion) in two days -- it's unbelievable. And you say that everything is going well," said Jack Layton, leader of the left-leaning New Democrats.

"The policies that you are suggesting today are the same ones used by George Bush ... Where is the action plan to protect people?"

http://technology.canoe.ca/2008/10/01/6945021-cp.html

Nelson Wiseman, professor of political science at the University of Toronto, said he's not surprised the Liberals have turned to negative ads.

"They probably regret they didn't start right out with it," Wiseman said. "They made the big error of running on something rather than running against something."

"Towards the end of the campaign, if you feel you're going to lose or even if you're leading but you perceive a serious threat, you go negative on the other side. The more negative you get at the end of the campaign, the more it reflects the dire straits you are in."

Dunne said such ads are aimed primarily at party faithful - or at least sympathizers - which makes it a form of preaching to the choir.

"The people they are trying to get behind this are their own supporters," he said.

"You probably won't change an awful lot of minds with this."

[updated Sun Oct 05 08:47:21 EDT 2008]

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05 Oct 08:47

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