The latest CPAC-Nanos tracking poll shows a seven point margin for the Harper Conservatives over the Dion Liberals. The Liberals have held on to post debate gains in Quebec but Ontario remains a tie between the Tories and the Grits.
In the post English debate world, however, Stephen Harper and Jack Layton have regained some lost ground on their daily leadership index. The research at this point suggests that the French debate has buoyed the image of Stephane Dion as well as Liberal support in Quebec while the Conservative numbers have slipped in Quebec.
Tune in to Goldhawk Live with Dale Goldhawk tomorrow night at 7 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at Nanos Research.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 2, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,008, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 35 (NC)
- Liberal Party 28 (-2)
- NDP 19 (+1)
- BQ 10% (NC)
- Green Party 8% (-1)
- Undecided 16% (NC)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,202,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 32% (NC)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 19% (+2)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 17% (-1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (-1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (-1)
- None of them 8% (NC)
- Unsure 17% (NC)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 89 (+10)
- Jack Layton 59 (+11)
- Stephane Dion 52 (-19)
- Elizabeth May 18 (+3)
- Gilles Duceppe 12 (+1)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
It seems every time I read a newspaper lately, there are Liberal supporters and ... more
Reg (British Columbia) 04 Oct 14:12
The new 7 point spread of the Conservatives over the Liberals should widen over ... more
westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 04 Oct 14:33
I rest my case, the extreme changes yesterday have corrected themselves, the pr... more
Regina Beach Boy (Saskatchewan) 04 Oct 14:21
Ummmm larryl, the people who work in Fort McMurry also live in Fort McMurry. It... more
Craig (Alberta) 05 Oct 01:30
Well - not really 40. If they hit 39 percent with the current conditions it'll ... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 05 Oct 05:20
Well that is obvious. I live in Calgary and have a bunch of collegues in the ... more
Craig (Alberta) 05 Oct 11:38
Comments
Reg
It seems every time I read a newspaper lately, there are Liberal supporters and candidates complaining about the possibility of the Conservatives getting a majority when "60% of Canadians are opposed to the CPC".
One wonders where these people were when the Liberals under Chretien were getting majority governments when "60% of Canadians are opposed to the Liberal Party."
Any Liberals want to comment???
[updated Sat Oct 04 14:12:21 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 14:12
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Regina Beach Boy
I rest my case, the extreme changes yesterday have corrected themselves, the previous wild shift in Dion's leadership numbers have dropped by 19 points, close where he was prior to glitch.
Either way, it will be intresting to see where the voting preference numbers move in the next few days, this will reveal where the numbers will stabilize until election day, of course barring any major gaffes by the parties.
[updated Sat Oct 04 14:21:16 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 14:21
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Zab
The numbers for the LPC have come back down because of a drop in the west. I looked at the riding by riding projections there- at least some of the seats the liberals lose in BC are going ndp. There aren't that many seats available for the CPC to pick up from the liberals in the west- increasing numbers just increase their margin of victory in many already safe ridings.
If the seat-negative trends in QC and the Maritimes hold, the CPC will need a fairly large margin in Ontario to make the numbers for a substantial increase in seats. I expect Harper to reduce focus on QC and campaign strongly in ON, Dion to reduce focus on BC and campaign strongly in ON and parts of QC.
[updated Sat Oct 04 14:38:00 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 14:38
skoblin
In retrospect, I think the biggest story of this campaign will be Harper's comments about arts funding and putting 14 year olds in prison. It torpedoed his party's chances of winning seats in Quebec and may have prevented his chance of a majority government.
[updated Sat Oct 04 14:46:41 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 14:46
Foxer
Probably true. His only real mistake, and a costly one.
Mind you he's doing much better in ontario than i'd have expected. Probably still won't get a majority, but he'll still do very well and that's really all he needed.
[updated Sat Oct 04 15:54:04 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 15:54
I don't think it was a mistake. Divide and conquer politics. He will secure rural 15-25 905/519 Ontario/PEI/NS seats trade-off of 5-8 potential Quebec seats. He also helped Bloc against Libs in urban centres.
What party followed up with a spending announcement of $ 500 million increase to the ARTS budget?
Ask the seniors and working families facing a carbon tax what is the safer choice on October 14, 2008.
From what I can tell his new budget announcements show a very fiscal party bracing for a slowdown. He's under 2 Billion in new programs announcements so far have you seen the other plans?
I think he will be very close to a majority gov't. ssssssssssh!
[updated Sat Oct 04 17:35:14 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 17:35
Foxer
There was clearly a 'spike' a night or so ago, and i suspect that's going to drop off in the next couple of days.
The problem for the liberals in the west is they're going to have almost no representation in the west. The CPC will probably pick up something like 7 or so seats out this way, and the ndp will get most of what's left over. That really hurts their claim as a 'national' party - there may be two provinces wihtout ANY liberals in it, and two more with only one or so.
Barring a miracle the liberals will never regain power without significant presence in the west - and they're about to be shut out. Worse - the ndp is about to become the 'second' western choice, with the libs behind them.
That bodes very badly for the future of the liberals. You cannot take a federal election with ontario and a few seats in quebec anymore. And after harper allocates more seats to the west it's going to get even harder. Especially with northern ontario tending to be more right leaning.
I suspect you're correct tho - i think dion is going to abandon the west as lost and focus mostly on quebec and try to recover some ground in ontario - i think he'll probably focus most in quebec of the two.
Ontario could actually put harper over the top into majority, But it's more likely that it'll be a very strong minority.
[updated Sat Oct 04 16:12:14 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 16:12
Zab
that sounds about right- I think there is going to be an increase of about10 seats overall for the CPC with the present numbers.
But, the liberals weakness in the west may be mirrored by the CPC weakness in QC (they could actually lose seats there) and parts of the maritimes.
I think with the vote splintering into four nationally (and five in QC) there is a fundamental realignment taking place. The old days of the brokerage between the two main parties are done. That is (possibly) why even in the non-nanos polls you are seeing a new weakness in conservative numbers without an equivalent surge in liberal numbers.
What I am wondering about is whether the new splintering will reduce the vote percentage for a majority from 40-42 to 36-38? In fact, the national vote percentages seem irrelevant compared to regional vote percentages, i.e Bloc in QC, CPC in the Prairies and BC, and everyone in Ontario.
[updated Sat Oct 04 16:32:01 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 16:32
Foxer
38 i think. No matter how i run the numbers - 38 is still damn near as low as you can go and still gain a majority. It may be possible with 37 if all your stars line up perfect, but really you need to have 38. And that's down a fair ways - they used to say more like 42, then it was 40. But you just can't go much lower than 38 even with a pretty even split amongst other parties.
[updated Sat Oct 04 16:36:49 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 16:36
It will be a very slim majority or a very strong minority. Atlantic Canada is will add seats as BC. Ontario will be the big shift to blue from red. Watch where Harper goes his polling is telling him what ridings are winnable and Dion is chasing behind trying to save the furniture.
[updated Sat Oct 04 18:01:52 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 18:01
HC in AB
I think that you could be right on your 38 number. What you missed is the 35 seats or so in the Altantic, all else being equal that is ulimately majority/no majority as long as the Bloc only leaves 25 seats or so up for grabs in Quebec and CPC is picking up 75 plus in the west. The only Liberal power base left will be the GTA (about 40 seats) against the West, so the power bases will start out at 75 to 40 for the CPC and everything else will be up for grabs. Until (Big if) the Bloc dissappears we could see a lot of minority governments over the next 10 or 15 years. All of this assumes that the Liberal Party remains finacially viable. They have mostly just kind of been the default vote of a lot of people and do not have grassroots financial support. Until they learn how to do that, their long-term viability could be in question.
[updated Sat Oct 04 17:57:03 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 17:57
Corrected themselves ? Check out the top number the Con-clones remain static .
The clones will be shut out of Quebc and loset most of their seats in Ontario .
"Do not invest in Ontario. There tax regime is ridiculous" Ring any bells .
These rolling polls are ridiculous .
Average twenty seven calls per riding . Yea, that is a really good picture of what is happening .
The so-called blue wave is nothing more than a light drizzle .
Buh,bye ! Clones .
[updated Sat Oct 04 15:41:14 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 15:41
westerner (suspended)
The Liberal high tax regime is ridiculous and will be more so when the downturn gets more advanced. Oh well, McGinty can always blame the Americans.
Check the other polls such as Decima, Ekos, Angus Reid and Strategic Counsel.
[updated Sat Oct 04 15:50:27 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 15:50
Its okay to finish 2nd again. It's the Hidden Agenda conspiracy folks at it again. In two more days when the french debate drops off I expect you to be very upset as well.
Can I suggest your next leader try some policies with less taxes as their first plank.
Good luck on the election and don't forget to vote CPC.
[updated Sat Oct 04 17:58:40 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 17:58
Craig
Ok first of all, you cannot put something in quotes if it is not a direct quote.
Here is what Flaherty said, and keep in mind he was talking about Dalton McGuinty's high tax regimine and how it will affect business investment:
"It discourages investment in the province of Ontario. If you're going to make a new business investment in Canada, and you're concerned about taxes, the last place you will go is the province of Ontario."
He never said "do not invest", he said "companies will not invest" because of high taxes.
Also, if rolling polls are so ridiculous, why had Nanos been dead on in the last two elections?
[updated Sat Oct 04 19:49:04 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 19:49
Are you suggesting Liberals are not the holders of the "one-truth" and the only Party to rule over us simple folk?
[updated Sat Oct 04 20:17:57 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 20:17
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Another great and brilliant forecast down the tubes
[updated Sun Oct 05 14:06:31 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 14:06
m__g__
I rest my case... the poll for today shows a shift back for the liberals, and a drop for the conservatives
[updated Sun Oct 05 14:22:09 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 14:22
westerner (suspended)
The new 7 point spread of the Conservatives over the Liberals should widen over the next 2 or 3 days as the rollling average fully recognizes the positive responses from the english debate. Dion is not doing well in the Leadership Index.
Watch for more Liberal dirty tricks as they get more desperate as the campaign comes to a close.
[updated Sat Oct 04 14:33:23 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 14:33
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Pop! The Balloon called Liberal hope is gone!
[updated Sat Oct 04 17:22:17 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 17:22
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Reg
There is less than a month until a great election, an election that will decide the next Prime Minister of Canada. The person elected will be the Prime Minister of all Canadians, not just the Liberals, PC's or the NDP. To show our solidarity as Canadians let's all get together and show each other our support for the candidate of our choice. It's time that we all came together. If you support the policies and character of Stephen Harper, please drive with your headlights on during the day. If you support Stephane Dion or that other guy, please drive with your headlights off at night. Thank you and drive carefully
[updated Sat Oct 04 19:23:19 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 19:23
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What leader(s) of Federal Parties are exhibiting anti-american sentiment in this campaign?
a) Dion
b) Layton
c) May
d) Duceppe
e) Harper
Bonus question what party is claimed if the CPC were elected The Canadian Army could be deployed in our streets?
[updated Sat Oct 04 22:30:11 EDT 2008]
04 Oct 22:30
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HoldenCaulfield
I have been a member of several discussion boards in the past and I have to admit that I have never been on one where so many right wingers hang out. The number of Western right wingers on here is unusual. I'm left wondering why.
[updated Sun Oct 05 02:36:40 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 02:36
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Anti-american sentiment by party leaders continue
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/081002/canada/canada_us_politics_canada_col_1
Opposition leaders -- who regularly accuse Harper of harboring an extremist agenda and of taking his orders from Bush -- blamed the prime minister for Canada's sluggish economic growth and said he should do more to help people who had lost their jobs.
"Mr Harper is a fan of the laissez-faire approach to the economy, like Mr Bush, and we can see the disaster unfolding now in the United States," said Gilles Duceppe, leader of the separatist Bloc Quebecois.
The value of Canadian workers' pensions has dropped by C$90 billion ($90 billion) in two days -- it's unbelievable. And you say that everything is going well," said Jack Layton, leader of the left-leaning New Democrats.
"The policies that you are suggesting today are the same ones used by George Bush ... Where is the action plan to protect people?"
http://technology.canoe.ca/2008/10/01/6945021-cp.html
Nelson Wiseman, professor of political science at the University of Toronto, said he's not surprised the Liberals have turned to negative ads.
"They probably regret they didn't start right out with it," Wiseman said. "They made the big error of running on something rather than running against something."
"Towards the end of the campaign, if you feel you're going to lose or even if you're leading but you perceive a serious threat, you go negative on the other side. The more negative you get at the end of the campaign, the more it reflects the dire straits you are in."
Dunne said such ads are aimed primarily at party faithful - or at least sympathizers - which makes it a form of preaching to the choir.
"The people they are trying to get behind this are their own supporters," he said.
"You probably won't change an awful lot of minds with this."
[updated Sun Oct 05 08:47:21 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 08:47
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