CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 34, LP 31, NDP 18, BQ 11, GP 6 (ending October 6)

Well well the polls are starting to firm up and much as I surmised the NDP vote is softening which will help the Liberals and the Tory vote is definitely softening a lot. The platform put out today by the Tories might as well have been left in the locker. He is still trying to lock into his base with the law and order stuff that does not impress eastern voters.

I also note the liberal pickup in the west.

[updated Tue Oct 07 14:04:54 EDT 2008]

Of course, these are not the final numbers, but plugging these into the Hill & Knowlton election predictor gets you at 2 seat Liberal minority government.

However, I wonder if the Liberal uptick is due to a fear of a Conservative majority.
And if so, will it drop now that a majority no longer appears likely?

[updated Tue Oct 07 14:09:18 EDT 2008]

I don't think at this point Harper is going to be able to provide Canadians with the comfort they need. It has become pretty evident that their message was to attack while appear stable on the economy, but as the crisis in the US developed, Harper had a choice... "stay the course" or figure out a way of providing reassurance that people felt included action. Dion managed to pull it off with his 30 day plan, and I think it is too little too late for him to release his platform a week before the vote and expect that stay the course will suffice. I think the trends are showing alot and I wouldn't be surprised with a Dion minority, particularly after the all of the nations economists have now signed an open letter supporting the idea of a carbon tax...not as scary anymore.

[updated Tue Oct 07 14:10:28 EDT 2008]

A Dion minority? Wow, that's not surely what Stephen Harper had in mind when he called this election in early September. 3 elections in a row, unable to get that majority, after blessed with many many political gifts and millions in the bank, everyone keeps talking about Dion's leadership after the election, what is the future of Stephen Harper if they are held to a minority, or if Dion pulls off the unthinkable with a small minority? How could the Conservatives let a 15% lead evaporate in a matter of days?

[updated Tue Oct 07 14:50:06 EDT 2008]

I believe in the wisdom of crowds... Harper for some reason when given a lot of exposure does not come off as trustworthy. So with that in mind and given the weird politics in the USA and Canada ... anything could happen .. One slip by Harper and Dion could form a minority.

I have remained neutral thus far. My sense is that Dion has come alive and people are seeing him as smart, sensitive and they do seem to believe that he is in it for more than power. So given that, if my sense is correct.. Harper will not form a majority government and Dion has a slight chance of forming a minority.

So its simple- if someone in the conservative party makes a error, the election could work out to somewhat of a surprise. Given that scenerio, the knives will come out in the conservative party and they are just below the surface and the infighting will make the Liberal party fights look like a charity ball.

[updated Tue Oct 07 16:09:24 EDT 2008]

Well ... well ... well ... It looks to me like we have a horse race. I am very happy with the way the numbers are going as I was quite concerned that if the Conservative numbers had remained way out in front as they were that (1) some Conservatives would stay home and not come out vote (2) The strategic voters would come out to play (3) The NDP may decide to migrate to the LPC as they did last election. So I think we have a whole new ball game here and who knows what could happen especially with the NDP doing so good this time in leadership numbers. If the NDP come out hard against the Lib's (I hear tell that Jack may come out hard with the 43 times the LPC sat on their hands ad) and we just may be in for a very interesting election day as I think it will all break down to how many voters the grass roots can put into play - hold onto your horses folks things just may turn out to be not quite as people anticipate this election and that's for sure!

[updated Tue Oct 07 16:28:54 EDT 2008]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2008/09/25/f-cv-races-ontario.html#

Beaches-East York

Brampton West

Brant

Burlington

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

Halton
In this riding, the candidate is the story — because the MP for Halton is Garth Turner. The Conservative defector will be running as a Liberal, and this election will be somewhat of a referendum on his maverick but populist ways. Conservatives would dearly love to knock him off.

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
Once the site of brutal Liberal infighting, the former political home of Sheila Copps and Tony Valeri fell to the NDP in the last election. Can the Liberals make a comeback, or will the NDP dig in?

Huron-Bruce

London-Fanshawe

Mississauga South
Liberal Paul Szabo survived a tough fight here in 2006 from the Conservatives. The Chair of the House of Commons Ethics committee had one of the toughest jobs in this past cantankerous minority Parliament, where he took a lot of abuse from the Conservative side. Now he faces the Tories head on during another tight electoral fight.

Mississauga Streetsville
Again, the incumbent is the story: former Liberal-turned-Tory in a floor-crossing walk, Wajid Khan. He had a fairly (by 905 standards) comfortable win when he was a Liberal, but how will Stephen Harper's special adviser on the Middle East fare as a Conservative?

Newmarket-Aurora

Oakville
Liberal MP Bonnie Brown survived the Tory onslaught in the last election by less than two per cent of the popular vote. Oakville is home to a large Ford plant and economic worries will be on voters' minds when they mark their ballot in this 905 target.

Oshawa
Conservative Colin Carrie won this seat in a tight three-way race in 2006. This time he faces off directly against an NDP candidate — Mike Shields — who's a former CAW president. Government assistance for the auto sector, and the recently announced closure of the GM truck plant in this riding in particular, could frame the election debate here.

Ottawa Centre
Liberal territory during the Chrétien government, but former NDP leader Ed Broadbent's comeback in 2004 turned downtown Ottawa orange, and his successor, Paul Dewar, held it for the NDP last time. Now Penny Collenette, the wife of former Liberal cabinet minister David Collenette, is carrying the Liberal banner. With the Conservatives likely to pull a fair share of their own votes, this will be tight once again.

Ottawa-Orleans
Parkdale-High Park
The NDP's Peggy Nash defeated a Liberal incumbent and a star Conservative candidate to take this downtown Toronto riding in 2006. But her life only gets more difficult this time: former Liberal leadership contender and Ontario cabinet minister Gerard Kennedy picked this seat for his first federal race. Can he translate his past provincial support into federal votes?

Parry Sound-Muskoka
Health Minister Tony Clement's riding was the closest race in Canada in the 2006 general election, when only a couple of dozen voters made the difference. Now that he campaigns as a sitting cabinet minister, will the power of incumbency help?

Thunder Bay-Rainy River

Thunder Bay-Superior North

Go ahead copy and paste your predictions in these close races

Not mine this is an example:

Beaches-East York: L
Brampton West: L (I'm not sure why this is one is even considered close)
Brant: C
Burlington: C
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell: L
Halton: C
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek: NDP
Huron-Bruce: C
London-Fanshawe: NDP
Mississauga South: C
Mississauga – Streetsville: L
Newmarket – Aurora: C
Oakville: C
Oshawa: C
Ottawa Centre: NDP
Ottawa-Orleans: L
Parkdale-High Park: NDP
Parry Sound – Muskoka: C (this is tough, but watching the stumbles of the Liberal candidate on the CPAC episode I just can't imagine him winning)
Thunder Bay-Rainy River: NDP
Thunder Bay - Superior North: NDP

[updated Tue Oct 07 16:32:13 EDT 2008]

Either Dion or Harper will be gone shortly after the election. Even with the current polls my bet is that Dion will be the loser and this will allow the Liberals to rebuild. Nanos polls have consistently indicates that it is not Dion that is keeping the Liberals in the hunt but rather the Liberal brand. This is also demonstrated by their team approach of late because they know full well that Dion just doesn't have it to sell the Liberal platform on his own.

[updated Tue Oct 07 16:34:49 EDT 2008]

What will Duceppe do after the election?

Most pundits have assumed that this would be his last Federal election, regardless of the results. Any thoughts?

[updated Tue Oct 07 16:56:13 EDT 2008]

Equalization and Lies - The the Conservative meltdown begin.

The equation contains several components of oil and gas components wherein those resources are considered in provinces where those resources are owned. "revenue source" means any of the following sources from which provincial revenues are or may be derived:

(a) revenues relating to personal income;

(b) revenues relating to business income;

(c) revenues relating to consumption;

(d) revenues derived from property taxes and miscellaneous revenues; and

(e) revenues derived from natural resources.

Now remember the promise - "We will remove non-renewable natural resource revenue from the equalization formula to encourage the development of economic growth in the non-renewable resource sectors across Canada."

This has absolutely nothing to do with the accord and as you can see from the formula - they have not been excluded.

Now on the Fishery

"A conservative Government would support extending custodial management of the continental shelf beyond the 200 mile limit, to the nose and tail of the Grand Banks and the Flemish Cap in the North Atlantic."

Guess what? Never did that either.

On Military Installations

"A Conservative Government would establish in Newfoundland and Labrador the following new operational requirements for the protection of Canadian Sovereignty and Security:

Station a new Rapid Reaction Army Battalion (approximately 650 regular force personal) for enhanced Atlantic army response at CFB Goose Bay."

Guess What? Never did that either...

And now what we should believe him on Arctic Sovereignty?

This is only a couple of lies to one Province....

Should we continue????

[updated Tue Oct 07 18:20:37 EDT 2008]

The electorate watched the debate; for many, this was the first time they could compare Stéphane Dion to the character Steven Harper had painted of him in relentless attack adds. Instead they discovered a passionate man, sincere bursting with love and worry for his country; more reassuring than the dictatorial style of Steven Harper.

The results in the polls since this event demonstrate their opinion.

[updated Tue Oct 07 18:53:52 EDT 2008]

Anyone else here get the idea that mbags, gohabs, is at it again by creating a bunch of id's and buttressing his own arguments? I can't believe that there are THAT many naive liberals. The latest dips are no surprise... the press ALWAYS turns on the leader at some point... as soon as people get the sense that Dion is the slightest bit competitive, they'll run screaming to the Tories or the Dippers. That guy's platform would be an economic disaster for Canada.

Yeah, let's tax the heck out of the one sector that is keeping our economy afloat and rejigger the entire economy in the midst of a global loss of confidence. What an idiot. The best the Lieberals have is to call him George Bush... (what an oxymoron... the guy is left of Obama but the truth has never stopped the Lieberals from spouting their crap).

I predict Nanos will end up with Tories at 38, Libs at 25, Dippers at 18 and the Bloc and the Greens at 8. Strong Tory minority... the Bloc will sputter and fume, the dippers will strut around acting like the official opposition and the Lieberals will try open heart surgery when they can't even afford a leadership convention.

[updated Tue Oct 07 19:39:30 EDT 2008]

Worried about your pensions? Wonder where the money goes to provide you with your CPP?

The CPP Investment Board is a professional investment management organization based in Toronto. Our purpose is to invest the assets of the Canada Pension Plan in a way that maximizes returns without undue risk of loss. The CPP Fund is $127.7 billion. Canada's Chief Actuary estimates that CPP contributions will exceed annual benefits paid through 2019. Thereafter a portion of the CPP Fund's investment income would be needed to help pay CPP benefits.

What Parties want to tax and attack your Canada Pension?

Layton, Dion, Duceppe, May please raise your hand.

Targeting banks, oil companies, manufacturers with taxes and increased costs in tough economic times is a great plan.

[updated Tue Oct 07 19:47:56 EDT 2008]

What really counts as how these polls will convert into seats. Even without riding-by-riding polls, there should be some mathematical way of assigning swing seats according to the regional poll result based on history. It almost sounds like a problem for a neural net to solve given all polling results in previous elections just prior to elections and election results. I would imagine the parties themselves try to predict on a riding by riding basis. Perhaps you could augment the most doubtful ridings with some individual riding polls. This would be much cheaper than polling all ridings.
Further at this stage we need to start considering strategic voting, by also asking whom you will vote for and if you will vote.

[updated Tue Oct 07 19:51:03 EDT 2008]

Harper the flip flopper:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081007.welxnfilmfund1007/BNStory/Front
“When you abandon your principles on one issue, people don't believe you'll maintain other principles and Stephen Harper fought for these issues over an extended period of time and then the polling numbers go down and he rolls over,” he argued.

I guess he can kiss off some right wing votes now that he has tried to sell his soul to Quebec.

[updated Tue Oct 07 20:27:58 EDT 2008]

In terms of local southern Ontario polls the canvassing I'm doing along with other volunteers is showing that our liberal candidate is well ahead of last eelction and more in line with the 2004 election where the libs won with a big majority. This riding is pretty typical of the 905 belt and is considered a hot one by the cons.

We are not seeing angry people except nasty tory supporters and we are getting lots of good luck wishes. This a major change from last time.

[updated Tue Oct 07 20:50:10 EDT 2008]

Dion Plagerized speech.

This is typical. As you can see in the story here, and watch on the associated link, dion himself stole 31 percent of his speech from another person.

http://www.citynews.ca/news/news_27724.aspx

Now - i dont really think this 'plagerism' is a big deal, i didn't think the tories was either. But - it really tells you a lot about the guy when he makes such a stink that harper did it WHEN HE HIMSELF WAS DOING IT ALL ALONG AS WELL.

Liberals are liars. Dion cannot be trusted.

[updated Wed Oct 08 00:30:13 EDT 2008]

I just watched Nik on CPAC explaining second choices. I was a little dumb-founded that Nik was surprised that the NDP would be Bloc voters' second choice. They both are social democratic parties, belonging to the Socialist International. The main difference between the two is the issue of Quebec's status within the Dominion. Other than that, they more or less agree on everything else. These days, it appears that a majority of Quebecers don't see nationalism as their pressing voting issue that influences their decision, but rather issues like the economy, healthcare, arts and culture, and the environment. On these issues, both parties have virtually the same views.

[updated Wed Oct 08 00:38:04 EDT 2008]

Future of Liberal Leader if he does not hold/gain seats from 2006?

Dion will be replaced as the Liberal Party did not support the Green Shaft. Several senior members of the Liberal party have been in "saving the furniture" mode the for 50% of the campaign.

Look at what ridings the leaders visit and look at the ridings the NDP/Tory smell Liberal blood.

It is between 45-71 seats depending upon who you believe?

The CPC has now removed the "gender issue" from 2006. So the fear factor is no longer working. Working mom's understand what party has the best interests and living within a responsible budget. (Listen to Nik comments Oct 6, 2008)

Expect a small bump in the CPC numbers +2% with the final budget release. Also his leadership will hit 100 in final days again.

Two big spins are now left in the last few days.

1) Harper is evil, ABC, no plan, Harper is not managing the economy properly.
2) Steady hand, don't panic, modest spending plans in uncertain economic times.

As long as no Canadian Banks/Large Corporations in Canada have a credit crisis in the next few days his message about our economy will resonate.

The campaign is in the perfect "sweetspot" its the economy stupid!

Who do your trust to govern Canada's economy?

We vote for leaders than party.

That's why Dion is not seen without adult supervision. I mean bench support.

[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures] -October 6, 2006

Stephen Harper 95 (+9)
Stephane Dion 51 (-7)
Jack Layton 47 (-8)
Elizabeth May 21 (+3)
Gilles Duceppe 13 (+1)

Expect more bleeding of Liberal votes to Bloc, NDP and Green in the battleground ridings as the strategic vote has lost the "stop Harper majority" mantra.

Any media spin talking about stopping Harper majority?

[updated Wed Oct 08 09:37:56 EDT 2008]

Doom and Gloom Parties vs steady as you go?

(Watch public opinion drop this week!)

What are the issues going to decide in the last week?

Will the media report good or bad news?

IMF supports Canada in G7 strongest growth.

"The drop in the price of gasoline continues at the pumps for drivers in the Greater Toronto Area. Consumers can now find a litre of gas for $1.03. Analysts expect that price to drop slightly or hold steady through the fall."
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/cbc/081008/canada/toronto_gta_gas

"There are also indications of health in the Canadian economy, with numbers suggesting the housing sector is still relatively robust and a report from the International Monetary Fund that Canada will lead the G-7 in growth next year."
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/081008/national/economy_outlook

Rofl the "sweet spot" its the economy stupid! Watch the feeding frenzy by the press after the opposition parties defend their statements about the mismanagement of the Canadian economy.

Housing market fine, Gas below $ 1.00 soon, Interest rates down

[updated Wed Oct 08 11:23:59 EDT 2008]

Watching the trend lines on Nik's numbers is very telling. There is a lot shifting in the center to left of center and a slow bleed of support from the CPC. With the CPC releasing their Policy manual, if you want to call a Stephen Harper Photo Album a Policy Manual, it will be very interesting to see where the numbers go from here.

When Nik release his numbers today, it will not be an honest reflection to Canadians reaction to the CPC Policy release, but Thursday and Fridays number will be the true story.

Nik's numbers released on Saturday will most likely be how the election will turn out, it will be end of the week and the start of the long weekend and I wouldn't expect to see much change in the numbers, markets will be closed until the polls open on Tuesday.

[updated Wed Oct 08 11:55:41 EDT 2008]

Liberals stand to lose 15 seats with UBC Forecast

http://esm.ubc.ca/CA08/

Con 127
Lib 88
Bloc 47
NDP 43
Ind 3

Interesting analysis the NDP are the biggest gainers in the seats.

[updated Wed Oct 08 12:36:18 EDT 2008]

"Let them eat cake!" Is that what Harper was saying when he told us now was a good time to buy shares? What are we supposed to use for money? I think that is going to cost him if the other leaders pounce on it.

[updated Wed Oct 08 12:39:02 EDT 2008]

Another Seat Forecaster

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/

Cons 134
Lib 90
Bloc 49
NDP 33
Other 2

[updated Wed Oct 08 12:40:16 EDT 2008]

Editorial: Paul Martin’s Hell
Author: Werner Patels (Non-Partisan/Western Canadian Sovereigntist)

Oct 7

Former Liberal prime minister Paul Martin is coming out with a score-settling book, Hell or High Water. In it he takes swipes at his predecessor, Jean Chrétien, and generally tries to get even with a Liberal Party that is not quite working anymore.

The book is not out yet, but some newspapers have started publishing unauthorized excerpts. Just a week away from October 14, the day of the federal election, Liberals are worried that Mr. Martin’s tell-all book could harm them. The party has therefore issued a call to all candidates and party faithful not to discuss the book with anyone, especially members of the press.

But with the excerpts floating around, the damage already seems done. Liberal leader Stéphane Dion, who has made his past track record on the Clarity Act one of his oft-repeated mantras in stump speeches, is also coming under attack in Mr. Martin’s book, who writes that “the law, which Mr. Dion oversaw, was unnecessary in light of a previous Supreme Court ruling.”

There you go: considered one of his biggest accomplishments – and arguably his only accomplishment to date – the Clarity Act has just been relegated to the landfill of political ideas by a former prime minister.

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/10/editorial-paul-martins-hell/#more-839

[updated Wed Oct 08 12:50:13 EDT 2008]

Another set of numbers with source included.

Cons 34%
Lib 28.5%
NDP 18.7%
Bloc 9.6%
Green 8.3%

The above figure represents the best estimate of support for each party. The data used to produce this estimate originates from the polls published by a number of polling houses. A plot of the original data is available under "Polls". The estimate of party support corrects for the systematic bias of each polling house (determined by prior analysis - see "Research") and the measurement error of each poll. Further information on the procedure used to do this is available here.

http://pollob.politics.ox.ac.uk/

[updated Wed Oct 08 13:10:21 EDT 2008]

After seeing the interview with Dion last night, it really shows that the polls are a shock and awe type of gut reaction to the Economy over the last 2 weeks. Nice gaffe that Dion said last night in the interview, he said " I have no plan, just the Carbon Green Shift", not what Canadians want to hear going so close into the election. Like give me a break Canada, either vote Harper or park your vote for the Greens!!!!! Layton is a spend happy leader and Dion has no plan, what will it take for Party Line Liberals to figure out that this party needs to be crushed and re-built from the grassroots up, stop, breathe and think people!!!

[updated Fri Oct 10 13:35:46 EDT 2008]