This evening on CPAC I will be blogging live likely after 830 pm EST. Post your question in this topic.
The new normal in this campaign is a tight race between the Conservatives and the Liberals. The margin between the two parties continues to be a scant four percentage points. There are a number of key trends to watch. First, NDP support in Quebec is on the move upwards as BQ and Liberal support is sliding. Regardless, the BQ still holds a commanding 23 point lead. The Liberals lead the Conservatives in battleground Ontario by 11 points and the Tory support in the West has hit 50%.
A look at the regional numbers shows a clear division in the views of Canadians. The West, for all intents and purposes, has embraced Stephen Harper and Tory support has improved. While Conservative support in the West has improved, it has declined in all other regions of the country. If this trend continues, my sense is that this election may re-ignite Western discontent and alienation.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 7, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,031, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 33 (NC)
- Liberal Party 29 (NC)
- NDP 20 (NC)
- BQ 10% (-1)
- Green Party 7% (NC)
- Undecided 14% (-1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,202,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 33% (NC)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 20% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 18% (+1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (+1)
- None of them 7% (NC)
- Unsure 13% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 82 (-7)
- Stephane Dion 59 (+9)
- Jack Layton 57 (+1)
- Gilles Duceppe 21 (+5)
- Elizabeth May 20 (-1)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
The polls are very similar to yesterday, which probably means the Conservative s... more
tiredandjaded (Ontario) 09 Oct 14:01
My concern is that soft Dippers and Greens will flock to the Liberal... more
Worried Tory (Nova Scotia) 09 Oct 14:25
A call for civility... Let's try it today, if only for one day. Pretend we'r... more
MichaelFox (Ontario) 09 Oct 14:07
MichaelFox - This is a good example of those on the far left who do not know how... more
MRM (Manitoba) 10 Oct 13:19
So did i apperently - it's actually 5 days and closing :)... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 09 Oct 20:30
Yeah - but he never looks good when he's whining. ... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 10 Oct 13:34
Comments
tiredandjaded
The polls are very similar to yesterday, which probably means the Conservative slide has stopped.
In order for the Liberals to win they will need to take votes away from the other parties now, as they've probably gotten all they can from the Conservatives.
With very little time left in the election campaign it looks like a slim Tory minority.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:01:16 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 14:01
48 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Darryl
Reporters are starting to ask Dion tougher questions on the substance of the things he is saying. He obviously doesn`t have any real plan for the economic issues facing us the last few weeks.
I think that over the remaining days, people will smarten up and realize they don`t want to elect Prime Minister Dion.
People have overreacted mostly because we all see our stock portfolios going down. Reality is likely to set back in and things will swing back to some degree. It looks like mostly a status quo result in this election today to what we had before it was called.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:06:51 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 14:06
Gordo05
I agree to a point, Darryl. But I was intrigued by Nik's suggestion that the polarization of the CPC's support in Western Canada might just lead to a new kind of western alienation. It would be an understatement to suggest that that will be very bad for the country. So, while the distribution of the number of seats in the House of Commons may be status quo, as you suggest, the feeling of resentment and 'what was it all for, anyway?' may well bubble up and boil over into a new kind of resentment expressed from the west that could result in more isolation - perhaps even a very real firewall. Our country is fractured and broken. We need a leader to bring us back together again. Unfortunately, what this election may tell us is that we have to keep looking for that leader - because it is obvious that it isn't Harper nor Dion.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:34:31 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 14:34
waynorth
Immediately after the 1980 election which saw Trudeau and the Liberals capture 44% of the poular vote and win 147 of parliament's then 282 seats he faced a dilemma. Even though they had polled almost 25% of Western Canadian votes the Liberals didn't win a single seat west of Winnipeg.
Obvioulsy, a Liberal majority with no western seats ignited western rage...just as I'm sure it would today - if not even to a greater degree. Facing such a country-splitting dilemma Trudeau invited NDP leader Ed Broadbent to his office for a chat. The NDP had captured 26 of its 32 seats in Western Canada with about 33% of the vote. Trudeau offered to introduce legislation for proportional representation if the NDP would co-sponsor it. According to well-placed sources, Broadbent said he would take the proposal to his caucus. The answer was no. Broadbent told the prime minister NDP MPs were afraid of losing their seats. Trudeau declined to forge ahead alone."
Such is the nature of our current first-past-the-post means of electing government. As noted eleswhere, such a system "not only undermine(s) democratic legitimacy and suppress turnout, they rupture the bonds holding the country together, artificially fomenting regional alienation and fracturing national unity."
Twenty-eight years later I'm afraid we're about to be faced with the same dilemma as Trudeau. For me, the obvious solution is some form of proportional representation. This is probably even more urgent today with the BQ pretty much taking Quebec's 75 seats with only 8% of the total popular vote, yet gaining defacto control over the entire parliament - a parliament they have no desire to see work to CANADA'S benefit.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:06:22 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 15:06
Lex Llewdor
Proportional representation leads to more minorities and bigger government. The Fraser Institute actually released a study on that - they looked at countries that adopted proportional representation and examined what happened afterward.
Also, I like majority governments. Majority governments are the only government ables to enact unpopular legislation.
Plus, these regional differences are important. We're not a homogenous nation; our politics should reflect that. That the first-past-the-post system highlights our regional differences is a positive trait.
National unity doesn't have any intrinsic value. Really, what do we get from being "Canadian"?
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:34:18 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 15:34
wyly
Fraser Institute-I'm sorry I hear the name and I turn off, they're predictable extreme right wing nut jobs you'd gain more credibility quoting wikipedia....I love democracy and further right you lean the less democracy you get....
the system we have now is cherished by those who crave power and don't want to give a voice to opposing opinions....millions of Canadians are denied a voice in government by our present system
first past the post gives the impression that there are regional differences that some wish to exploit....50% of western voters conservative so there must be regional discontent but 50% don't vote conservative but they're not a factor? how is pitting one region of canada against another a positive trait...I'm a Canadian first and last I just happen to live in Alberta...
[updated Fri Oct 10 15:20:45 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 15:20
Lex Llewdor
The Fraser Institute is economists. All they do is measure stuff. In the '80s they supported publicly funded abortions because unwanted children are bad for the economy. They (just a few years ago) supported the legalisation and regulation of the marijuana industry.
That's hardly far right.
They're the people who told us we had waiting lists for healthcare (because they measured them). They give financial awards to public schools that perform well. They award scholarships to financially disadvantaged families (childrenfirstgrants.ca).
That's hardly far right.
[updated Fri Oct 10 17:36:50 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 17:36
HoldenCaulfield
I have read this also, and I understand that Broadbent considered the proposal. That would be because Broadbent was a real leader, and honourable man.
The NDP alienates its own supporters with their dogged determination that they are going to displace the Liberals as the progressive party of choice. If Tommy Douglas, David Lewis and Ed Broadbent couldn't do that, I assure you that Jack and his canned nonsense about a new kind of strong aren't going to do it.
I agree with you that we need to look a form of representation that remedies the increasing regionalism. Why on earth would be we be better off on our own, we wouldn't, provinces would end up gobbled up in the US union or unable to cope when a resource runs out or during bad times. Remember, times are bad in Ontario right now, but it had been the economic engine of the country until recently.
Minority Governments can work, the Kingdom of the Netherlands has had only minority coalitions since the late 1950's, and they have a stable country. It means compromise however.
This election may be a lesson for Harper that calling an election without cause is not good. There was no need to call this election, except to catch Stephane Dion and the Liberals unprepared. Voters see through that sort of stuff.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:26:20 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 16:26
Lex Llewdor
Unprepared? Who didn't see this election coming months away?
If by unprepared you mean broke, then yes, but that wouldn't have changed by waiting for the spring.
I suspect Harper was trying to get the election done before the US financial collapse.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:01:36 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 17:01
Foxer
Dion's been saying for over a year they were 100 percent ready for an election. And he spend all summer campaigning on the green shift. If he didn't think there was an election on the horizion and wasn't prepared, he's a bit of an idiot.
[updated Fri Oct 10 15:28:58 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 15:28
Lex Llewdor
That firewall would be good for Canadians. The regions and provinces should be left to govern themselves without all this interference from Ottawa.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:08:26 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 15:08
psiclone
I tend to agree though I favour Harper. Dion definitely is out as far as us out west feel and the LPC party has done nothing to try to bring us back in ... from the very beginning all of Dion's speeches and public events are nothing but bad mouthing the PM and if there is any real question about the carbon tax he starts waving his little green book around saying it's a shift not a tax - does the LPC really take us to be fools ... well in either event we are running them out of town so to speak time for a little western justice. Things are going to get interesting and that's for sure.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:42:44 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 16:42
Peggy
I agree-last night I watched Peter Mansbridge interview Dion and tell him at least twice-"Ok you haven't answered the question"
And Mike Duffy last night must have repeated at least three times in his 2 shows "But Dion hasn't cancelled his Carbon Tax yet has he" almost feeling the need to remind voters why he was down to begin with. I think the media was bored and wanted a good fight-they now have that and they are easing off as they don't really want Dion in the end-they wanted the ratings.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:14:17 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 15:14
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Peggy, unfortunately Peggy Dion doesn't fall for the trick questions. If they asked the question about tax shifting he will give them the right answer as he did to lloyd Robertson the other night. Your bias in calling it a tax without mentioning the fact he will cut income taxes to match is pretty much the comments of the angry tories we see a tthe doors in my ridings. Those that are not hard right wingers appear to be able to understand it.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:06:11 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 16:06
Lex Llewdor
Personally, I'd be helped tremendously by Dion's carbon tax.
I don't own a car. I walk to work. I walk to the grocery store. I earn more than the average Canadian. Reducing my income taxes would help me far more than the carbon tax would hurt.
But it's bad policy.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:59:45 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 16:59
Foxer
And unfortunately the income tax cuts DON'T offset the increased costs. Dion doesn't factor in things like the fact that even you lex will pay more for the goods and groceries you buy - they all come by truck and the costs will have to be passed on. That's just one example of many.
Some people may benefit (you sound like you may be one of the lucky ones, depending how you heat your home and such) but MOST people will have LESS money at the end of the day.
And that hurts the economy.
[updated Fri Oct 10 15:31:57 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 15:31
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
As usual you are not looking at the full Picture. The Liberals are moving up in the west obviously in BC mostly and they have good numbers in the maritimes and Ontario. I think Niks quebec number today for the libs will show as an aberration by tomorrow as thye are not going down by 3% with the NDP and Bloc both up by 3% in one day. The Libs are mor likely at 24 to 25% in Quebec and the cons slightly higher than their poll there today.
Overall I believe this is now much closer than today's numbers are showing. Dion's personal numbers are moving up and that will bring back more disaffected Liberals and move some NDP votes over. The Greens have already started their migration to the Libs. The vote is till quite fluid in Quebec where people are most likely to change their votes. Remember that 8% of all voters only decide their voting intention at the ballot box. That becomes a big number in this election
One other thing that makes me believe this is even closer is the fact that Harper released his program two days ago and that should have helped him but only appears to have slowed his downward march. The Libs are now moving to get the soft voters for the first time in this election while the tories have been chasing that vote since day one.
I expect that by Saturday it will be much different again and as Sunday will be the last day polls can be published it will be a nail biter form then to late Tuesday night west coast time.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:17:55 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 16:17
Darryl
The Prime Minister didn`t release his program 2 days ago. He has been releasing all of his plans and promises every day of this campaign.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:25:55 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 16:25
Mike Stokes
a small minority government is the worst thing for the Canadian markets...watch them tumble even more Oct 15. ...the dirty 30's will look like a day at the beach by next spring.
and the endless cycle of Federal Elections will continue.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:07:14 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 14:07
DGoodchild
With both the new Listeria news and the news that Mr. Harper's $8B estimate on the cost of Afganistan was way off still to take effect in the polls, I suspect a new Conservative slide is on the way.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that the latest Listeria news is Mr. Harper's fault, but it will serve to remind the country of the original outbreak which I believe will be bad for the Prime Minister.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:16:49 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 14:16
Darryl
So the stock markets falling and lysteria outbreaks at sliced ham plants are all Prime Minister Harper`s fault? So when the stock market goes up is it all to the credit of the Prime Minister? Is everyone really believing that?
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:19:54 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 14:19
DGoodchild
There's a good chance that the listeria outbreaks were at least partly his fault due to cutbacks in food inspection, yes. The stock market, no - not his fault. The inability to accurately estimate how much the Afganistan mission will cost, yes - absolutely his fault; he's the trained economist after all.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:36:04 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 14:36
MichaelFox
I thought that the original estimate on Afghanistan was the cost to date, whereas the estimate that came out today was the total cost through to the end of the mission.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:39:40 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 14:39
DGoodchild
Hmm... now you've made me wonder. If that is the case then his estimate is with the range given by the report.... need to check the details on that...
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:46:36 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 14:46
Lex Llewdor
I think Michael's right.
Harper is a very good economist. He's an indifferent politician, but he's a very good economist.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:09:23 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 15:09
larryl
Lex. You would think he could at least help his own mother but he is using her as an example of people losing money. Maybe you could tell us exactly what a good economist is. He has never actually held a job as an economist unless you consider the head of the National Citizen's Coalition to be an economist. Is a degree from U. of C. all you need to call yourself an economist. My dictionary defines it as an economical or thrifty person . That means I qualify as an economist since I am so cheap. Who knew ?
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:11:09 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 17:11
Lex Llewdor
Two degrees. From a good economics school (I would say that Simon Fraser University is the best economics school in Canada, but Calgary is very good).
But mostly I base my impression of his economics skills on conversations with the man.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:16:22 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 17:16
larryl
Lex. Are you another of the Calgary School boys? I am surprised you have such high regard for an easterner. He has lived in Ontario for more than half his life. I didn't think that just moving to the west was enough to make one a westerner but since his hero Bush became a Texan when he was born in Connecticut it would make sense for Steve to claim to be an Albertan. I suppose it could be good enough to talk about economics but I would prefer somebody with some real experience at the job . Speech writing for Deb Grey does not impress me much as an economist.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:52:07 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 17:52
tiredandjaded
Having a degree from a good school does not make you that position.
I have a journalism degree from Ryerson University. Most would agree that Ryerson has a very good journalism program.
I am not a journalist.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:54:00 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 17:54
Darryl
Yes the government seemed to be right on target with their estimate even though the CBC today is trying to say they were off my $10 billion. The government estimate was for $8 billion spent so far. The report said today that the money spent so far was from $7.7 billion to $10.5 billion. The $18 billion number includes 3 more years of spending that the government didn`t include in their estimates.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:11:59 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 15:11
DGoodchild
Actually, you're comparing apples to oranges.
The Conservatives said that the $8B estimate was the total cost.
The report released by Mr. Page states that the cost is $7.7B - $10.5B over-and-above what we would have spent on the military anyway. That's where the difference is. That's called the incremental cost.
So take that $7.7B - $10.5B and add that to what would have been spent anyway if we hadn't gone to Afghanistan. That's the full cost to date and that's what you have to compare to the Conservative's $8B estimate.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:38:42 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 15:38
MRM
Today's estimate for Afghan mission costs is from the start of the mission to the end in 2011. It also includes such things as the cost of tanks and helicopters ($6B) which were not purchased for Afghanistan specifically. They were purchased for gen army use because that is the type of equipment armies have. We had tanks and helicopters long before the Afghan mission and will have these particular ones long after. In fact the helicopters will not even be delivered until 2012 but were still included by the budget office in the Afghan mission costs. So this accounts in part for why the costs estimated by the budget office are so high. Because some Liberal Party friendly accountant decided that because there are tanks in Afghanistan we have to count the cost of purchasing them and we decided to purchase helicopters while we had troops in Afghanistan so we have to count them to. The fact is though that while the costs to DND are real to attribute them to Afghanistan is just no accurate. For instance the costs for those tanks and helicopters were not included in the $8B cost estimate for the Afghan mission because they were included in the Army’s overall procurement budget so to include them in the Afghan costs as well is double accounting and does not reflect an accurate picture.
All that said the method used to produce this report and the timing of its release was all an effort by the Liberal controlled public service to hurt the Tories. It seems to have backfired though since it was quickly pointed out that of the 7 years we have been on the mission almost five of them were under the Liberals.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:38:39 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 22:38
DGoodchild
According to this article in the Globe and Mail: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081009.wafghanreport1009/BNStory/International/home
The Conservative's estimate of the cost to date was about $8B but that's the 'full' cost. The report states that the incremental costs are already at least that high and probably higher (up to $10.5).
In order to compare apples to apples, the government's estimate of the incremental cost to date is only $3.8B.
For any readers who don't know, the incremental cost is the cost of the Afghanistan mission over and above the cost of maintaining the military which would be incurred anyway.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:02:35 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 15:02
Gordo05
I think you are right. I was intrigued with Nik's suggestion that the overwhelming support for the CPC in Western Canada may ignite a new brand of western alienation. I don't want to raise the spectres that this could lead to, but it does speak to your very valid point about a halting of previous Conservative support seeping to the Liberals. However, I would suggest that there may well be some very fluid voters out there. It's certainly going to be an interesting Thanksgiving Day weekend. Let's face it, after the turkey is gone, the table is cleared and the dishes are done - it'll be all over.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:23:38 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 14:23
wyly
Nik is out to lunch on this, voting conservative has nothing to do with or will add to western alienation, he's reading more into the polls than what there is...I've lived in the west (Sask & Ab) nearly my entire life, I'm a Canadaian first and always if the east votes differently than me that's just the way it is they have different regional concerns ...I would like to see a better electoral system than we have that would help...
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:25:56 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 18:25
larryl
t & j. If the Tory slide has stopped it will be very difficult to regain what they have lost. The Liberals have been climbing and will get more support from the undecided on election day. Many Green and NDP supporters will want to keep Harper from being reelected so they will vote strategically . The Bloc will hold the balance of power and get more from Harper than Dion so watch for a coalition of eastern and western seperatists. A small Liberal minority could see Harper stay in power with the help of the Bloc.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:09:04 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 15:09
Lex Llewdor
I think a separatist coalition would make for a fine government. They'd have a very narrow range of issues on which they'd agree, so that would severely limit the power of the government to do anything except those things that appease all separatists.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:12:03 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 15:12
HoldenCaulfield
Lex this is the most disheartening post that I have read quite honestly. Are you so angry and so Ideological that you would welcome the break up of Canada, a great nation? For what purpose? What about the soldiers from your own province who have fallen in Afghanistan and wars before, did they fight under the Canadian flag and under the Union Jack before that so that you and other separatist swine, could argue for the destruction of the Country.
I come from a long line of Loyalists, your sort of talk is unacceptable.
Oh and by the way before some neo con complains about the Swine comment I would draw your attention to Foxer's reference that the Green Party leader is in his words "Liberal Scum".
So please try not to be too much of a hypocrite.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:32:34 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 16:32
Lex Llewdor
I asked this further down, too. What do we really get out of being Canadian? Now. Not what we have received, but what do we get now?
And, as I've also said, I don't really want to country to break up. I want the central government vastly weakened, in accordance with how federations are traditionally run. Like how the US was run before the Civil War. Like how Upper Canada and Lower Canada were administered before 1867. Autonomously.
We can still co-operate on things like trade and defense. Indeed, we should co-operate more on trade than we do (we have too many trade barriers between provinces). But each province should be free to govern itself as it sees fit. If BC wants to legalise polygamy, let it. If Quebec wants a guaranteed minimum income, fine. But we shouldn't fund each other, and we should get in each others' way.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:30:17 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 17:30
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
With that in mind I'd like to go back to Joe Clarke's idea of a country of regions...five of them. That would make us stronger and much more efficient as big diversified country. The separation talk is all garbage as were the Quebec moves. Its nothing but legalized bribery of the center core of the country.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:38:05 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 17:38
Lex Llewdor
If you don't think the threats are credible, don't pay the ransom.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:40:12 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 17:40
Lex Llewdor
I also think those regions should be subdividable. Otherwise you'll just create the same problem again.
5 regions lumps together all 4 western provinces, and BC and Saskatchewan are very different places.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:41:39 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 17:41
HoldenCaulfield
The problem is that you can't address the big issues without a central Government. Provinces are good at taking care of provinces but they aren't so good at the big stuff. We can't tackle environmental issues at the provincial level only. You also need national standard for health care, for meat inspection, for emission control etc.
The world is a complex place, we are stronger as a nation, than as little pieces.
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:30:33 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 20:30
Lex Llewdor
Why do we need national standards for meat inspection? Or health care?
You can't just assert that we need national standards without some justification for that. I can't begin to imagine why we'd even want national standards for health care.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:39:23 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 11:39
MRM
larryl - are you saying that the Tories are a Western seperatist party?
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:43:50 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 22:43
larryl
MRM.No. Some reform/alliance members of the party certainly are. You have been reading posts from Westerner and Lex so it should be obvious some would definitely not try to stop it.
[updated Fri Oct 10 06:47:25 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 06:47
larryl
MRM."Quebec wants to stand alone as a separate nation; Ontario could do the same and we would all have economic and political independence. Each country could have the government they want instead of being controlled by Central Canada (Ontario)"
A quote from Westerner about seperatism. He and others would love to see Oilberta become a republic governed by President Steve with the fundamental Christian Right imposing their views on everybody.
[updated Fri Oct 10 07:01:53 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 07:01
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Everyone in the know in Quebec says Harper has all but abandoned the provincve and will focus on Ontario. He will go down to two seats there. One for the amazing Mr. Bernier and the other to his cultural highlight Josee Verner. How wonderfully ironic that is.
His reason for only being in Ontario is that new tory polls show him losing more seats in Ontario and that he could end up with fewer than 30 seats there.
My earlier preliminary prediction of 85 Tory seats in total is starting to look good. My final prediction will come Sunday.Watch for it foxer; it will be as good as Nik's.
For added measure Dion is looking stronger in Quebec than ever and now Layton may also get shut out there. Both the bloc and the Libs have worked hard to hit the NDP vote and let the Libs slide up the middle in Outremont because the bloc does not want the NDP landing with any seats there.
I'm less certain about the west but it appears that Dion will retain most,if not all of his western seats.
[updated Fri Oct 10 07:16:19 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 07:16
wyly
I believe there are about 40-45 swing seats that could go either way so and the amount of undecided voters going to the polls election day could very well decide if have a lib or conservative PM...a minority...
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:55:31 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:55
MichaelFox
A call for civility...
Let's try it today, if only for one day. Pretend we're all just political hacks here (which we are).
You're not going to change anyone's vote through something you write on this message board.
Again, even if we can only manage it for one day, why don't we try to have an intelligent debate on a few issues without degrading into the usual name calling and comments such as "Dion sucks", "Harper sucks, Neocon, Bush" etc.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:07:34 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 14:07
35 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Worried Tory
My concern is that soft Dippers and Greens will flock to the Liberals over the weekend and give Dion a narrow plurality.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:25:44 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 14:25
23 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner (suspended)
This political balkanization of the country has been evidence for a long time. It will not just add to western alienation but will contribute to the move for western separation. Dion and his discriminatory carbon tax is not good for the energy rich west.
Quebec wants to stand alone as a separate nation; Ontario could do the same and we would all have economic and political independence. Each country could have the government they want instead of being controlled by Central Canada (Ontario)
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:33:35 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 14:33
34 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
jcamero
As a Tory my analysis might be a little bias towards one side, but love to hear all your thoughts...
One time:
Angus Reid- Tories 35%, Libs 27% (Oct. 6th, 7th) 1,000 ppl.
Daily:
Ekos- Tories 35 (+1), Libs 24 (-1) (Monday Oct.6th, 7th, 8th) 3,100 ppl. total
Nanos- Tories 33 (NC), Libs 29 (NC) (Monday Oct. 6th, 7th, 8th ) 1,200 ppl. total
Harris Decima: Tories 32 (+1), Libs 27 (NC) (Sunday Oct. 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th) 1,200 ppl. total
Summary:
The trends from yesterday’s analysis seem to be continuing. It appears that Nanos is slow on picking up the decreasing trends of the Liberals, and the increasing trend of the Tories. I think this is due particularly to the high #’s Nanos is giving the Liberals in Ontario, which is different than all of the other Federal polls. Nanos also shows much volatility in Atlantic Canada (Of note though, MOE is 10%), and this combined with the Ont. Libs seems to be keeping the Libs at 29%. Any drop of in their #’s in Ont. and the Atlantic in the Nanos poll and the libs will fall from 29%.
At the same time, all polls show a falling in support of the Liberals in Quebec, however Harris Decima has the libs polling at 29%, while Nanos has them at 19% and Ekos has them at 21%. This should provide encouragement for falling Lib national poll #’s, as 29% seems out of whack with other polls, and is probably over polling Montreal.
Here are the spreads by the polls:
Ekos: Tories ahead by 11
AR: Tories ahead by 8
Harris Decima: Tories ahead by 5
Nanos: Tories ahead by 4
In Ontario:
Ekos: Tories 36 (+1), Libs 32 (+1)
Nanos: Tories 28 (NC), Libs 39 (-1)
Harris Decima: Tories 28 (+2), Libs 32 (-2)
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:47:39 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 14:47
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Straittohell
I am not seeing a lot of talk about an NDP-Liberal coaltion government. If the Conservatives don't get enough for a majority, there is technically nothing stopping the NDP and Liberals from forming a coalition government, with the Bloc simply holding the trigger. Note that I said "technically"... I am sure that there are plenty of personality and ideological barriers.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:10:02 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 15:10
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suedo
I see right-conservative policies are working tremendously well. Is there anything working?
Can anybody find the DOW - its dark that fell down the well.
What we should do is copy the Americans and we too will be in their enviable position.
Just curious - how are those jobs coming in manufacturing? Moving their operations to China has been tremendously successful for Americans. Maybe we should try that too.
They are far ahead of us in the military workplace - any chance we can find our own war - to get in on the action.
Then again still much more profitable to be one of Stephen's real heroes - the hockey player. Shoot puck in net = $10,000,000 Get shot defending freedom = $60,000
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:37:01 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 16:37
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wyly
how does 50% of westerners voting conservative add to western discontent and alienation? what about the other 50% who don't support the conservatives are our opinions not worth anything?
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:04:52 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 18:04
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larryl
Just filled out my entry for Nanos contest on election prediction . Any guesses on how well our resident experts will do ?If one of us should happen to win the contest apologies from all posters of the opposite political stripe should be posted with congratulations attached. We could have our own contest but it would be on an honorary basis unless we could send our predictions to another poster to be revealed after the election. I will post my predictions on election night around 8 P.M. as I will be at the election office counting ballots after the polls close. This could be fun.
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:05:46 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 18:05
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Deb Prothero
Nik;
If you could do anything different in your methodology to improve the reliability your numbers, what would you do?
During this election, some of the regions (I'm thinking specifically of the Atlantic region), were chaotic from day to day. It was like a roller coaster ride. Does that truly reflect the mood of the voters or was it the survey instrument or size of the sample that affected the daily numbers most.
Thanks
Deb
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:04:07 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 19:04
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suedo
Nik - Question CPAC
Much has been made of Stephane Dion and his "weak" leadership. This to the point of suggesting after this election is over - he will be turfed as the leader. My question is - If Stephen Harper does not get a majority is this the end of his political career?
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:15:14 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 19:15
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uf318
Nik,
Do you have any seat projections based on the current numbers?
Thanks,
Gary B.
Victoria BC
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:31:46 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 19:31
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hollinm
Hi Nik:
If Harper is considered in each of your polls to be the best PM by a wide margin then why would we see a tightening in the polls. Does it not go, thinking logically, that if Harper is considered the best PM the voters would support his re-election?
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:38:04 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 19:38
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Virginia Peartree
Q. What was Alexander Graham Bellanovski famous for?
A. He invented the telephone poll.
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:48:45 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 19:48
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hollinm
Nik:
There is no question that the Conservatives have had gaffes during this election campaign and Harper himself has made some unhelpful comments. However, why in the world would the Canadian electorate support a Liberal party who has a leader Canadians, in every poll, say they don't much like and who has a policy of proposing huge new taxes and is proposing to spend up to $50 billion on new program spending (which amounts to wealth re-distribution)? Does the old saying go Tax me I'm stupid apply to this campaign?
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:00:32 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 20:00
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Craig
Hi Nik,
Where does Nanos' funding come from? What do you do during the non-campaign periods?
Have a great Thanksgiving.
Craig
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:11:24 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 20:11
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DGoodchild
Nik: Given Mr. Harper's training and experience as an economist, will today's Afghanistan report and the difference between his cost estimate and Mr. Page's cause a problem for the Prime Minister?
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:20:21 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 20:20
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Mr_Michael
Is this a dream!
Mr. Layton as made it very clear to everyone that the only position he wants is to be PM of Canada...so on the 15th October will he then resign as leader of the NDP party as he had made it crystal clear he only wants to be PM and not just a mere leader of a 3rd place party.
On the 15th October, when Mr Harper wakes up to find that he has not achieved the 155 seats needed...what will he do, as he has clearly stated on the record that he cannot work with the other parties ineffectively carrying out Canada’s legislative business.
Answer: Mr. Harper then should visit the Governor General advising her that he will not be able to form a majority government and that he is resigning to allow the Governor General to ask the leader of the official opposition to form the next Government.
Yes, this is a dream...
What's not a dream is spending another 300 Million!!
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:20:40 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 20:20
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Dear Nik,
I am comparing the 2006 vs 2008 in the last week. Both had Harper trending negatively.
Do your numbers suggest a strategic vote with a different outcome?
Thank you
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:24:15 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 20:24
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HoldenCaulfield
I've now seen the Regional Break Downs, I think that the Liberals will win this election if we keep up the push to stop Stephen Harper. The numbers if accurate have the Liberals ahead in every region of the Country, or statistically tied as in BC.
When you look at the Quebec Numbers, the seats on the Island of Montreal will belong to either the Liberals of the Bloc. When you look at the rest of Quebec, the Conservatives may be shut out.
Atlantic Canada has a larger sample now and we see that the blip from the other day is corrected and that the Liberals out front with the NDP in second place. The Tories are running third.
So what explains the Conservative 33 and Liberal 29 number. It's Alberta; 66% there support the Conservatives, a 9 point bump. But Harper doesn't need any seats there, they are all his. He is up in Sask and Manitoba, same story there, no pick ups.
Ontario in Toronto the Tories are tanking, they are behind in South Western Ontario and only tied in Eastern and Northern Ontario. Eastern Ontario is Conservative Country, I know of what I speak. The North leans NDP, this is good news with such a strong Liberal Number in that area, it means that the Liberals will likely pick up Eastern Ontario Seats. These seats used to belong to the Liberals anyway, it's not a stretch to have them come back home.
I take back my earlier predictions, I think that Harper is on the ropes, we just need to keep all of our energy towards defeating him between now and Tuesday.
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:26:14 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 20:26
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Darryl
One of the most important interviews of this campaign happened today.
Steve Murphy of ATV news was interviewing Stephane Dion and asking about what he would have done different during the last few weeks related to the stock market meltdown if he were Prime Minister instead of Mr. Harper. Dion's answers are interesting...
Here is a video of the interview:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrliDQs1Jps
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:35:57 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 20:35
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pat_boucher
hey nik, two questions:
(1) ever thought about running for political office..and
(2) did you do polling in central nova...how is elisabeth may doing ?
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:42:15 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 20:42
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I think perhaps the dip in polls for the Conservative party is partly due to the fear brought on by the world economic situation. People don't know who to blame,...and when given the direction by the opposition,..they obviously direct their fustration towards Harper. Now that the Press released the information that Canadian Banks are in the best position (out of ALL the World Economies!!),...I predict the CP will gain in the polls. Harper explained what steps were taken to prepare for this approx. 14months ago,,,,and with the additional statements by Flaherty,...the situation is being explained. THis may help put concerned Canadian at a situation of ease.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:21:56 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 21:21
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gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
It appears that both the cons and Libs are tied in the polls. If it remains that way who will get the most seats?
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:18:10 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 22:18
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Check out Mr. Dion's interview today on you tube "Stephan Dion as seen on Mike Duffy Live".
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:36:24 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 22:36
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gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Harper and Flaherty have just announced another flip flop and will support some products banks have with high risk mortgages. What a sad sack act those two are.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081009.wbankpolitics10/BNStory/Business
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:49:05 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 23:49
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MRM
With the economy in the forefront and the Dion interview gaffe another event went unnoticed in the media today. For the second time in a row the usually left leaning G&M editorial board came out with a strong endorsement for Harper today. An extract form the article posted on their website:
"On balance, Mr. Harper remains the best man for the job in the tough times now upon us. "
[updated Fri Oct 10 05:25:57 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 05:25
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gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
1. it appears that the Cons will only win two seats in Quebec..those of the wonderful Mr. Bernier and Mme Vverner the architect of Harper's culture policy.
2. The numbers in Ontario could end with fewer than 30 tories elected there if ther current trend continues.
3. The NDP may still get shut out in Quebec as the Liberals are resurgent there and both the Libs and Bloc are fighting to split Mulcair's vote and defeat him. .
4. The Libs may hold onto all or most of their western seats.
5. The NDP are losing at least two GTA seats to the Libs and may not make the same totals as last time.
6. The Greens unfortunately will again not elect anyone.
[updated Fri Oct 10 07:12:35 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 07:12
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The Bench is holding the bat to Dion's head, leadership contenders positioning for next convention.
"Worse yet for the Liberals, Dion had to contend with recently-published comments from star candidates - and leadership rivals - Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff which suggested a deep global recession would force a Liberal government to rethink the carbon tax."...
"But after a promising week which saw his Liberals' close a once-commanding Conservative lead, Dion was forced to shift to the defensive on Thursday at a campaign stop in Nova Scotia, where Premier Rodney MacDonald warned voters that a carbon tax would cost the province around $600 million per year."....
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20081006/election2008_dion_shift_081008/20081009?s_name=election2008
[updated Fri Oct 10 07:29:55 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 07:29
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Liberals edge ahead in B.C. battlegrounds: poll
CTV.ca News
For the first time in the 2008 election, the Liberals have pulled ahead of the Conservatives in British Columbia's battleground ridings.
That's in stark contrast from the start the campaign period when the Conservatives were polling at 45 per cent compared to the Liberals' 25 per cent.
In polling conducted Oct. 6-8, the Liberals had 33 per cent support to the Conservatives 31 per cent, in B.C.'s key swing ridings.
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20081006/election2008_poll_story_081009?s_name=election2008&no_ads=
Goodluck.
[updated Fri Oct 10 07:59:01 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 07:59
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Bernie
There used to be a "robini" here. I wonder if he/she is related to Nouriel Roubini the famous economists and write on financial affairs. Here's a sample of what he is saying today.
"ALERT
RGE Monitor
October 9, 2008
On Thursday, October 09, 2008, Nouriel Roubini – Chairman of RGE Monitor and Professor of Economics at the NYU Stern School of Business – lays out his latest views on the global economic and financial crisis and the urgent necessary actions that need to be undertaken globally.
"The U.S. and advanced economies’ financial systems are now headed towards a near-term systemic financial meltdown as day after day stock markets are in free fall, money markets have shut down while their spreads are skyrocketing, and credit spreads are surging through the roof. There is now the beginning of a generalized run on the banking system of these economies; a collapse of the shadow banking system, i.e. those non-banks (broker dealers, non-bank mortgage lenders, SIV and conduits, hedge funds, money market funds, private equity firms) that, like banks, borrow short and liquid, are highly leveraged and lend and invest long and illiquid, and are thus at risk of a run on their short-term liabilities; and now a roll-off of the short term liabilities of the corporate sectors that may lead to widespread bankruptcies of solvent but illiquid financial and non-financial firms."
I may not agree, but the warning is there.
Harper's not telling things as they are is irresponsible. If people know the truth they can take measures to protect themselves from the worst effects.
If they don't know and don't prepare then the situation is made much worse.
[updated Fri Oct 10 08:21:19 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 08:21
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September employment jump largest in 30+ years
Updated Fri. Oct. 10 2008 7:58 AM ET
The Canadian Press
OTTAWA -- Statistics Canada has surprised economists and tossed a wild card into the federal election campaign, reporting that the Canadian economy generated a record 107,000 new jobs in September.
The massive number was totally unexpected, as analysts were expecting a modest pick-up in the 12,500 range.
However, almost all of the new jobs -- 97,000 -- were part-time.
Last month's overall jump was the largest since the agency began collecting the data more than 30 years ago. The previous record month was January 2002, when 97,000 jobs were added.
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20081010/employment_figures_081010/20081010?hub=Canada
The Opposition will cry because "High paying Union Jobs" are lost due to the CPC.
Who is the customer of the services of these high union paying jobs? Automobiles....hmmmmm
Our largest trading partner. God Bless America and whoever they elect. It's not the Canadian way to ridicule their democracy. (Unless you belong in the Liberal,NDP. Bloc, Green)
Harper should go fix the banking, employment and housing problems in the US as well to save those jobs in Canada.
BTW thank you again for all the anti-american sentiment and trashing of our brothers in the south during the campaign.
I know the Republican Party and the millions of voters who regularly vote that ticket are evil according to your campaign.
[updated Fri Oct 10 08:30:06 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 08:30
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pamdenec
Issues seem to be taking a back seat to campaign strategy in this election. It occurred to me yesterday while I was in the dentist's chair that the upheaval in financial markets and huge spillage of government money worldwide is going to create so much economic "noise" that many international trade agreements will fall by the wayside as governments, especially the USA, subsidize domestic businesses in many industries. This is bound to hurt competitiveness in trade across borders and could cause the collapse of NAFTA, the Auto Pact, and other agreements.
[updated Fri Oct 10 08:46:31 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 08:46
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larryl
The supposed gaffe yesterday is a farce. An unclear question asking what could have been about this financial crisis before it actually happened is ridiculous. Who knew this was coming ? Obviously no one did or they would have done something to prevent it. The question was a trap to make Dion look bad since there is no answer to the question.
CTV’s ethics as low as those of Mr. Harper
CTV has injected itself to the campaign in Mr. Harper's favour. Mike Duffy's gleeful airing of cut footage of the Dion interview with Steve Murphy is about as low as it gets.
Mr. Dion and CTV both agreed to restart the interview because the question was unclear. What would you do as PM now? What would you have done? Which is it?
The Tories have been making personal attacks against Mr. Dion for two years and they can be expected to continue to the bitter end. CTV? Mssrs. Murphy and Duffy? They broke their word, which makes them willing and shameless accomplices in character assassination.
A new classic for media ethics courses. Speaking of which, Msrrs. Duffy and Murphy and their CTV masters need to go back to school.
[updated Fri Oct 10 08:56:51 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 08:56
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Harper is growing into the job
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081009.weelection2008/BNStory/politics?cid=al_gam_nletter_newsUp
".... Mr. Harper has governed moderately and competently for nearly three years. He has not taken the country in dangerous new directions or significantly eroded the capacity of the government to act, when necessary, in the public interest. He has been side-swiped, at least on the emotional level, by an international economic crisis of epic proportions. But he has gotten the big things right."
"...Mr. Dion is a decent man of great integrity and tremendous courage, most evident in his years as minister of intergovernmental affairs under Jean Chrétien. But a leader he is not.
If you want to meet the most inflexible head of a major political party, Mr. Dion takes it in a cakewalk. He's had a relatively strong week to be sure, but has never been much inclined to make the kind of mid-course corrections required in uncharted waters. He is a priest not a proselytizer, better at righteousness than salesmanship. The Green Shift has been an electoral disaster not because a carbon tax/income tax swap is a bad idea, but because his proposal is ill-timed, ill-considered (why mix an anti-poverty initiative into a tax on greenhouse gas emissions?) and ill-presented. You cannot be a leader without creating followers and Mr. Dion has failed to attract followers to his signature policy."
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:22:00 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 09:22
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Please be civil, all Canadians are being affected.
Ottawa buying $25-billion in mortgage pools
SHAWN MCCARTHY
Globe and Mail Update
October 10, 2008 at 8:30 AM EDT
"This initiative by no means signals problems in Canadian mortgage quality or mortgage market fundamentals," they said. "The policy initiative is strictly designed to address liquidity and funding pressures at Canadian banks that is a by-product of an evolving global credit crisis."
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081010.wflaherty1010/BNStory/Business/?cid=al_gam_nletter_newsUp
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:38:03 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 09:38
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suedo
It appears that Canadians may have the choice of having Dion without the carbon tax.
If Dion gets a minority - parliament has a say in structuring climate change strategies. This also avoids the harpernomics - he now believes he was the Prime Minister that created a more stable banking system.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:41:39 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 11:41
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MRM
Has anyone read the Don Martin article on the NP site? This article proves what many have suspected all along. That Don Martin is a Liberal party hack! This is such an obvious and weak attempt to spin this into something that it is not that his version of events are laughable. They border on the absurd and are devoid of any reality. Here is why I say this:
1. CTV had every right to air this. If Harper or any other leader had been in a similar situation and the network hid it from the public guys like Martin would be screaming from the rafters that they were being biased. And guys like Martin would be penning articles about why they candidate in question was unfit to be P.M.
2. Anyone who watches the clip knows that it was not an overly difficult question. It was also explained to him in French. I need say no more on that because the clip speaks for itself. To say any different is just not credible.
3. Dion’s medical condition has zip to do with this. I know because I have the same affliction. If you go back to the statements Dion made when he told the public about his affliction you will hear him say that he has difficulty hearing people speak in crowds. The affliction makes it difficult to discriminate between background noise and the person who is addressing you. This was not the case here. It was a one on one interview in a hotel room.
3. How is the PM’s response “showing his mean streak”? Again anyone listening to his comments knows that his response was actually a bit muted. He said:
"When you're running a trillion-and-a-half-dollar economy, you don't get a chance to have do-overs, over and over again. I think what this incident actually indicates very clearly is Mr. Dion and the Liberal Party really don't know what they would do on the economy."
So I ask any reasonable person what is so mean about that? This is politics and he is criticizing him on policy. This is fair ball by any political standards of conduct. For Dom Martin to spin this any other way is just dishonest. It is clear to me that Mr. Martin is prepared to surrender his journalistic integrity in order support his political beliefs regardless of the facts. So be it. After all it is his credibility to do with what he likes. But video speaks louder than words so any objective viewer will not be fooled by this nonsense.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:46:21 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 11:46
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Foxer
LIBERALS ADMIT GREEN SHIFT WON"T REDUCE EMISSIONS
http://www.winnipegsun.com/News/Manitoba/2008/10/10/7038881-sun.html
Well there you go. I think realistically most of us knew that all along. The green tax won't reduce greenhouse gasses.
Is this a surprise to anyone from a guy who let emissions go up 33 percent under kyoto?
[updated Fri Oct 10 12:20:29 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 12:20
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Darryl
Today's Harris/Decima rolling poll shows that the CPC is on the way back up. Nik's numbers today will be very interesting...
Conservatives: 34% (+3)
Liberals: 26% (-1)
NDPL 18% (-1)
This poll says it's 33% Liberal to 31% Conservative to 21% NDP overall in Ontario now.
[updated Fri Oct 10 12:53:11 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 12:53
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Dion criticizes Harper, CTV over interview
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081010.wliberals1010/BNStory/politics/home?cid=al_gam_mostview
Again game changer NO!
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:19:53 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 13:19
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