Conservative Victory Propelled by Ontario Voters

Pauvre Canada

[updated Wed Oct 15 06:47:20 EDT 2008]

The ballot question was the economy.

Let's hope the next election each party will do a better job in staying on message and providing a clear plan.

NDP had run a very good campaign, I hope they can work with the current CPC.
I hope the Liberal party is rebuilt with a new leader.

I do expect if opposition blocks the CPC again within the first 24 months we will get another election. I hope they understand the importance of respecting the mandate given to the government.

[updated Wed Oct 15 07:30:05 EDT 2008]

An interesting sidelight to the election is the numbers who voted vs 2006

totals 000's
2008..............................2006
all... 13,826.........................14,817
Cons:5,208...........................5,374
Libs:..3,600..........................4,479
NDP:.2,500..........................2,500

In my opinion and by these numbers it appears this election was basically decided by Liberal voters who stayed home and I think it was in Ontario where they sat on their hands. We get the government we deserve and I hope absent lib supporters learn the lesson.
This was not about making Harpercrite king since he got even fewer votes than last time and Taliban Jack got the same numbers.
The Libs will find their sea legs soon enough and understand that it was the fear of the economy that lost them the election. The green shift will happen just not yet.

[updated Wed Oct 15 08:28:16 EDT 2008]

Good job Canada!!!

The correct party was chosen to lead our country!!

Honestly the CPC won more seats than I expected. The Prime Minister made a good speech last night and I'm glad that the right man will be leading our country going forward.

I'm a bit surprised that Dion did not quit last night after being beat down so much but I'm sure it won't take long. Are the liberals still really a national party with only 7 seats west of Ontario (and well under 20% of the vote out there) and a very good portion of their seats in the whole country in only 2 cities?

[updated Wed Oct 15 08:48:23 EDT 2008]

I am reminded of the epitaph on the grave of Antarctic explorer Captain Robert Falcon Scott : "To seek, to strive and not to yield."

The Liberals have some soul searching to do - with Tubby as unpopular as he was and is, the Liberals should have done much better last night.

Stéphane has some soul searching to do too.

Clearly his gamble on the "Green shift" failed.

Clearly the "Green shift" was, as Rex Murphy put it, "a piano tied around his neck which he went about the country trying to sell."

Now I only have an Hons BA in Political Science & History - but what the hell was he thinking proposing anything with the word 'Tax' in it. Let alone a complicated policy.

All he had to say was that he would put in enhanced programs for energy reduction like home renos, industry etc to effectively achieve his objective - but to use the words 'tax,' revenue 'neutral' ... oh well, done now.

Clearly the Green Shift Platform is now dead - the voters rejected it all too clearly.

The Liberals now have to clearly reposition themselves, without a scintilla of doubt, in the middle of the political spectrum, be fiscally conservative and socially progressive.

And rebuild.

Stéphane should also remember Harry Truman - 'the buck stops here.'

He should spare the Party internal schisms and further embarrassment and now do the honourable thing.

He has much to offer as a Cabinet Minister.

ATB

John

[updated Wed Oct 15 11:44:56 EDT 2008]

Canada PM faces market crisis with minority government
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081015/wl_canada_nm/canada_us_election_canada_ca_4

"The fact that Mr. Harper was restricted to another minority government, albeit a marginally stronger one, means that this campaign can only be viewed as a personal defeat," said an editorial in the influential Globe and Mail newspaper, which had endorsed Harper before the vote.

"Near term, the House (of Commons) will probably act in unison on defense economics, while big plans by the Conservatives will likely be shelved rather than force a nonconfidence vote and another election," said Andrew Pyle, wealth advisor at ScotiaMcLeod.

Copied and Pasted from

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080906/economy_elxn_080906/20080906?&s_name=election2008
Election 2008 promises:

1)a two-cents-per-litre tax cut on diesel and airplane fuel over four years; at an expected to cost of $600 million a year
2)relax restrictions on foreign ownership
raise the allowable level of foreign investment in airlines from 25 per cent to 49 per cent
let foreign companies own Canadian uranium mines
3)provide $150 million annually for maternity and parental leave benefits for entrepreneurs who pay into Employment Insurance
4)give first-time homebuyers a $750 rebate, and up to $5,000 in tax credits, for closing costs; implementation cost is estimated at about $200 million per year
5)increase the senior age credit by $1,000
give $85 million in tax breaks to families with one spouse who forgoes full-time work to help a disabled family member
6)give consumers protection against Internet spam and ban unsolicited text message charges
7) allow charities and non-profits to set up RESPs for children in low-income families
give $2,000 in incentives for apprentices completing training programs
8) increase the Senior Age Credit by $1,000
9) provide $400 million more over four years for the Strategic Aerospace and Defence Initiative and Automotive Innovation funds
10) get rid of industrial tariffs on imported machinery and equipment (implementation cost: $345 million)
11) Reduction of the federal debt, resulting in interest rate savings
r12)Reduction of personal income taxes under the Tax Back Guarantee
13)Automotive Innovation Fund to help automotive sector
14)providing funds to create jobs in personal and food safety sectors and to reduce greenhouse emissions

Which one will the CPC bring out to show cooperative spirit in the next HOC?

[updated Wed Oct 15 13:21:09 EDT 2008]

The great news for the day is we only have 3 Liberals in Metro Vancouver, unfortunately one is Hedy Fry. A side note: If you think the election was not necessary, blame it on this fact. Before a Party can become Official, it must have representatives in all ridings in Canada, that is why we are getting the results we are. And thanks to the Liberals we got this mess in Canada. For 13 years they did nothing about this, because they were always spoon feeding Quebec like babies!

[updated Wed Oct 15 13:30:36 EDT 2008]

The Hill Times, June 5th, 2006
NEWS STORY
http://www.thehilltimes.ca/html/index.php?display=story&full_path=/2006/june/5/lib_money/&c=1
Four Liberal leadership candidates still haven't raised any money
Liberals say they're charting new territory under Bill C-24, but leadership candidates are 'really struggling' for money in this campaign.

Ontario Liberal Sen. David Smith, who is co-chairing Mr. Ignatieff's campaign, recently told The Hill Times that due to the difficulties in raising funds by all the leadership campaigns, the current leadership campaign has to be cost effective.

"We're not rushing into expenditures until it's obvious that they are necessary. It's not just the spending limit, it's the raising limit [as well]. In addition to that, you are going to have over 10 candidates out there beating the bushes for money. So, you have to be very cost effective and that's what we are doing," said Sen. Smith, adding that the Ignatieff campaign has set a target of about $2.5-million to be raised in this campaign.

David Herle, former campaign manager for the Liberal Party's last two electoral campaigns, told CBC Newsworld's Politics host Don Newman last week that the campaign financing rules for leadership campaigns should be changed because under the current rules in place, fundraising is an uphill battle. He argued that political parties rely on public financing for running election campaigns but leadership campaigns do not have any such arrangement. So, he said the law should be changed to give a reasonable opportunity to leadership candidates to raise money.

"Every candidate is really struggling for money in this campaign, some of them desperately, but everybody is really short of money and it creates a moral hazard and I think the law needs to be changed," said Mr. Herle.
================================================================

Does anyone think under the present circmumstances raising funds have improved for the Liberal Party or the leadership candidates?

[updated Wed Oct 15 14:14:54 EDT 2008]

It sounds like we get some really good policies passed in the HOC with the Prime Minister's new mandate.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081015.welxnharper1015/BNStory/politics/home

Harper targets Senate reform

STEVEN CHASE
Globe and Mail Update
October 15, 2008 at 2:41 PM EDT

CALGARY — Newly-re-elected Prime Minister Stephen Harper today served notice that he will stack the Senate with Tory appointments if necessary to push through democratic reforms of the chamber.

He also said he's reviewing options for further aid to Canadian banks as he released a six point action plan to address the global financial crisis.

But Mr. Harper declined a request from the nation's premiers to attend an Oct. 20 emergency meeting on the economy, saying he will instead hold his own first ministers' get-together in the weeks or months ahead.

“It's not possible for me to take part in a meeting Monday, but I welcome the meeting, I think it's a good idea for the provincial premiers to get together,” Mr. Harper said. “I wait with impatience the results of their discussion before they meet again with me.”

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper speaks at a press conference in Calgary, on October 15, 2008, following his Conservative party's victory in Tuesday's federal election.

In his first post-election news conference, Mr. Harper warned that the Conservatives are serious about promised reforms to the Senate – including elections and eight-year fixed terms – and will fill it with new Tory appointment to push through reforms if the Liberal majority there opposes it.

“We don't believe an unelected body should in anyway be blocking an elected body,” Mr. Harper told a news conference in Calgary.

There are currently 16 vacancies in the Senate because Mr. Harper has let retirements go unfilled, but the Liberals still dominate with 59 unelected Senators in the chamber.

“I have held off for a very long time in naming senators. That said, I do not believe it is justified that the Senate would continue to [be] dominated by a party that did not win two consecutive elections,” he said.

“We are looking for the opportunity to elect senators, but if at some point it becomes clear some senators are not going to be elected, the government will name senators to ensure that the elected will of the House of Commons and the people of Canada is reflected in the Senate.”

By January 2010, there will be 31 vacancies in the Senate and the Liberal caucus there will be down to less than 50 seats in the 105-seat chamber. Mr. Harper could theoretically appoint 31 senators to a brief one-year term and use this strength to push through whatever changes are necessary.

[updated Wed Oct 15 15:49:56 EDT 2008]

Congratulations!

[updated Wed Oct 15 16:37:06 EDT 2008]

So - i guess NONE of the pollsters nailed it this time.

Looking at strategic, ekos and nanos, they were all reporting very similar numbers. But in this case they all fell short, most outside their margin of error.

To me, this is a demonstration of the weaknesses of three day polls during elections where there's a lot of volatility. Sudden last minute changes by the electorate simply cannot be tracked by voter intention polling in that kind of environment.

So - a couple of questions seem to pop into mind:

1 - several pollsters asked questions in addition to 'who are you going to vote for'? Should we give some of the trends we saw there in things like 'who'd make the best pm' more weight?

2 - what other questions might have been valuable? Would questions like 'who do you think has the most momentum' given more of a hint as to how things were going to wind up on the last day? Are there others?

3 - if rolling polls are best for tracking where we've been and giving the trends of what happened, is there a better way of tracking where we're likely to be tomorrow?

[updated Wed Oct 15 22:37:52 EDT 2008]