The CPAC-Nanos tracking over the closing weekend of the campaign showed a positive improvement in the individual performance of the Prime Minister and a spike in Conservative support Thanksgiving Sunday.
A look at the individual nightly tracking showed support for the Conservatives at 32.6% and 32.8% on Friday and Saturday respectively. On Sunday, however, the individual daily tracking conducted by Nanos showed a Conservative jump to 37.1%. The final election result for the Conservatives was 37.6%.
This compares to the Nanos nightly trend for Liberal support – 26.7% on Friday, 26.8% on Saturday and 26.7% on Sunday. On election night the Liberals registered 26.2% support nationally.
Between the turkey hitting the table and the pumpkin pie, Stephen Harper ramped up his margin. My sense is that Canadians did not focus on which leader they liked or did not like. The election was not a popularity contest but more of a reasoned pragmatic choice.
Faced with uncertain economic times, Canadians opted for Harper - the prudent economist.
Mid campaign, the economy became the growing issue of concern and conversation as the bad news poured out of the global financial markets. Volatility in the value of savings and investments led to election volatility. By the closing weekend a number of factors helped the Conservatives regain the economic high-ground.
First, Stephen Harper’s admittance, that neither he nor his party were perfect but they were the best choice for the economy likely rang true for many Canadians.
Second, his closing message that Canadians were likely to face another minority government minimized strategic voting.
Third, a series of external positive news stories validated the message from Harper that Canadians should not panic and that the fundamentals in Canada were indeed better than in other countries. In the last four days, Canadians heard that our banking system was more resilient, that job creation was up and on Monday saw the markets in New York post large gains.
Harper’s strong personal campaign close and the external good news both helped buoy the Conservative campaign in its closing days.
The other outcome of the holiday weekend political chat was that many Canadians opted not to vote period. Preliminary results from Elections Canada showed a dismal 59.1% voter turnout – among the lowest in Canadian election history. Only for a referendum in 1898 has Elections Canada registered a lower turnout at 44.6%. This at a time when Canada has troops in Afghanistan and the world is facing a financial crisis.
For Stephane Dion and the Liberals, the holiday chatter rendered a negative judgment the Liberal Party has not seen in over 100 years. Under Dion, support for the Liberals hit 26.2%, worse than what was considered the other low water mark – John Turner 1984 (28% Liberal support).
Stephen Harper and the Conservatives can rightly claim victory. They increased the numbers of seats in the House of Commons and improved their showing in battleground Ontario where they surpassed the Liberals in popular support for the first time in 20 years.
The one missed opportunity for the Conservatives was Quebec where the musings of the Prime Minister on culture and crime galvanized opinion in favour of the BQ. Indeed, this election surely could have resulted in a sweeping majority Harper mandate.
Regardless, with his 144 seats, he does indeed have the stronger mandate asked for.
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
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I think the main reason the Conservatives won is they lied repeatedly and consis... more
Roedy (British Columbia) 05 Nov 07:58
I agree. As a centrist I was most disappointed in the hearing acuity of the Lib... more
Tom Good (British Columbia) 04 Nov 16:32
I completely agree that the voters opted for a steady hand on the economy and vo... more
westerner (Alberta) 04 Nov 16:02
Degres---You are so right. With Confereration in 1867, Ontario got 24 seats, Q... more
Tom Good (British Columbia) 08 Nov 02:51
Bernie---I have never missed a vote either. Often university students protest... more
Tom Good (British Columbia) 08 Nov 14:13
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Tom Good (British Columbia) 08 Nov 19:49
Comments
westerner
I completely agree that the voters opted for a steady hand on the economy and voted for Harper; he is clearly the best leader given our uncertain times. Dion's Green Shift was a political loser from the start.
The Conservatives made a serious political blunder when they cut funding for the arts and subsequently took a big hit in Quebec which may have cost them a majority government.
[updated Tue Nov 04 16:02:17 EST 2008]
04 Nov 16:02
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
dhwbailey
Harper had solid support from firearms owners. The CPC are the only party that have listened to the concerns of the firearms community and have responded in a reasonable way about firearms crime.
Harper has made it clear that he believes there is no relationship between lawfully owned firearms and thugs and criminals misusing firearms in a criminal way on the streets.
Unlike Ann MCcLelland, when in power, Stockwell Day has taken a reasoned approach to a handgun ban and has refused to parrot the canned responses that McClellan did when she was minister.
For that, Harper gained some pretty solid vote as well as financial support.
He now must deliver on his promise to dismantle the long gun registry and begin a move to re-write the Firearms Act. If he doesn't. he could see the loss of a couple of million votes next time.
[updated Tue Nov 04 16:12:31 EST 2008]
04 Nov 16:12
37 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MurrayR001
Very nice analysis, and quite interesting about the Sunday spike. I'm curious about Green support - one might have thought that it should have dropped more as voters moved to the safer economic management of the Conservatives...?
[updated Tue Nov 04 16:29:01 EST 2008]
04 Nov 16:29
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Tom Good
I agree. As a centrist I was most disappointed in the hearing acuity of the Liberal leadership and said so in my letters (note the plural) to Dion over the past year but, understandably, received narry a reply. The Harper Conservatives are not perfect, but what political party is, and they are the best bet for Canada considering the alternatives. No party stays in power forever so the Conservatives do not have a stranglehold on the levers of government and a minority situation makes it imperative the the new government tries to govern closer to the centre where most Canadians feel reasonably comfortable politically. If the Conservatives do manage to stake claim closer to the centre, then they are almost assured a majority the next time around as the Canadian electorate would likely support an encumbent government that is fair and just no matter what the opposition would offer-----and let's hope the opposition would have a well presented platform the next time around.
The Liberals have to clean house in the thinking and policy department and buy new batteries for their hearing aids. Dion is not helping this process of "renewal" by clinging to leadership and living in his fantasy land while blaming the Conservatives for his self imposed misfortunes. Dion is delaying the process of "renewal". Martin knew when to quit but, unfortunately, most political "leaders" have to wait for the Order of the Boot to be conferred.
[updated Tue Nov 04 16:32:36 EST 2008]
04 Nov 16:32
12 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
The sad part of this whole exercise is that fewer people took the time to vote. We have to figure out a way to get people interested in who runs our country. I still believe if people were not told what the results will be before they go out to vote the turnout would have been higher.The result could have been the same but we will never know. In the next campaign I would like to see more people show up and if they are not happy with the options they have , they should reject their ballot. Instead of voting against a party as the ABC campaign told people to do they would show their rejection of all parties without actually cost us more money from E.C. for each vote cast. Ten million people did not vote and that adds up to about 18 million we saved in funding any political party, Next time I hope 20 million show up and reject their ballots saving us 35 million . The results will be the same but we won't be giving them more money to fund an unnecessary election campaign. Let's start the RYB campaign now and maybe they will think twice about calling another unnecessary election if they know they won't get any more of our money.
REJECT YOUR BALLOT. RYB.
[updated Tue Nov 04 16:53:36 EST 2008]
04 Nov 16:53
21 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
wlloydmcic
Hi Nik,
Your analysis seems all well and good.
But with all due respect, on the face of it it appears to be mere speculation.
You do not set out the basis for your conclusions:
“My sense is “
“By the closing weekend a number of factors helped the Conservatives regain the economic high-ground….”.
“ . . . likely rang true for many Canadians”.
“…minimized strategic voting”
“…Canadians heard…”
“The other outcome of the holiday weekend political chat…”
“…the holiday chatter rendered a negative judgment …”
Was this based on some survey you conducted, either at the end of the campaign or on the compilation of surveys conducted during the campaign? Is this based on anecdotal evidence? Was it a Vulcan mind meld on your TV set while watching the results? If it is some kind of educated guess, what are you basing it on? And more importantly, to what extend can one give it weight in making their decisions?
“Conservatives can rightly claim victory…”
Many people in Canada would hardly refer to the results of the election as being a victor either for Harper or the Conservative. It certainly wasn’t a victory for the people of Canada. Harper’s rational for the election was that he could not run the country because he had a minority. He cost the Canadian purse over $320,000,000 to ends up with another minority. Many people in Canada would be hard pressed to point to a winner. (See, speculation is easy)
Lloyd MacIlquham
[updated Tue Nov 04 16:57:54 EST 2008]
04 Nov 16:57
66 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
theodditor
I think that the Conservatives had the strongest support that was most likely to go & vote. In fact I think Nik had survey results that showed this as well. One of the reasons in my opinion was the advertising. The Conservatives continually plugged away at Dion & his 'carbon tax' proposal & as much as Jack Layton wanted to be PM, in reality that will never happen. With the amount of money raised by the Conservatives and to an extent the NDP, both bashing Dion & the LPC platform, it makes sense that the CPC increased their support at the expense of the LPC. And with the Liberals dragging out their old baggage of Jean Chretien & doing their last minute appeals & fear-mongering to the new Canadians, I think it reminded some Canadians that there is an alternative to "the natural governing party" & that we were heading in the right direction with Harper.
[updated Tue Nov 04 16:59:01 EST 2008]
04 Nov 16:59
22 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Well said.
[updated Tue Nov 04 18:37:47 EST 2008]
04 Nov 18:37
larryl
Theodditor. If the advertising really was an important factor could the CPC be guilty of violating spending regulations since they started doing that two years before the election was even called. Of course the studio expenses should have been included in their campaign spending but I doubt they declared those expenses in their campaign spending . Any commercials made before the writ was dropped should also be included but again I doubt they did that. Elections Canada should have plenty to investigate and charges should be laid if warranted. Another In/Out scheme by the party that ran on more transparency and honesty . What a joke.
P.S. What may I ask is an odditor?
[updated Tue Nov 04 22:24:57 EST 2008]
04 Nov 22:24
Lex Llewdor
What spending violations? There are no limits on political advertising outside the writ period.
You're fabricating scandal. Juts because you think the rules should say something different doesn't mean that they do.
[updated Wed Nov 05 17:15:52 EST 2008]
05 Nov 17:15
Foxer
It gets worse lex - remember that dion had spend all summer - three months - travelling across the country selling the liberal message and the green tax. None of that was included in the 'election financing rules' either. So - if he thinks harper's guilty for a few ads, he must believe that dion should be locked up for life :)
[updated Thu Nov 06 15:25:29 EST 2008]
06 Nov 15:25
larryl
There is a huge difference travelling across the country trying to clear up the lies about the Green Shift and actual ads paid for by the CPC attacking Dion for two years prior to getting the Green Shift plan on the table. The CPC election campaign started the day Dion was chosen as leader. You know that as well as I do.The rules don't apply to a man who has no morals or ethics.Common sense should tell you Dion did not know when Harper was going to call an early election so why go out and start campaigning? The whole cost of building and operating their propaganda machine in Ottawa should have been included in the election expenses. When was the last time we saw propaganda on this scale?
[updated Thu Nov 06 16:13:35 EST 2008]
06 Nov 16:13
Foxer
Larryl - nobody'd HEARD about the Green Tax prior to him taking that trip.
It's a complete lie on your part to try to suggest it was to 'clear things up' - he went out to introduce it and sell it. How is it possible that the opposition lied about it BEFORE he announced it?
Very typically liberal - it's only a crime if the CPC does it, if the libs do the same thing then it's perfectly normal.
Do you not realize how you look to every other person who reads this? Just more 'liberals are entitled to their entitlements' crap.
Dion spent 3 months campaigning before the election started - and he lost because people saw in him the kind of crap they're seeing from you - more lies and more liberals thinking they should rule the universe just because they're liberal.
The libs will do worse in the next election unless by some miracle they and their supporters can learn to be honest by then. Which they won't. So they're going to do worse.
[updated Thu Nov 06 16:39:57 EST 2008]
06 Nov 16:39
Lex Llewdor
Again, why should those pre-election expenses be counted? They're explicitly excluded from the election spending limits. There is no legal reason at all for political parties not to spend as much money as they want between elections.
Unless you're being icredibly unclear and you think the rules should be changed, you're basically asking Elections Canada to penalise someone for doing something that wasn't in any way against the rules.
[updated Thu Nov 06 18:45:13 EST 2008]
06 Nov 18:45
larryl
lex. If there are no limits to campaign spending the party with the most money would stay in power forever . The CPC campaign started the day after the last election since they had all that money that you explained they got by giving it to their supporters to donate to the party. You do remember that don't you. Is that the kind of democracy you want. Buy the election at any cost.
[updated Thu Nov 06 19:15:42 EST 2008]
06 Nov 19:15
Lex Llewdor
The In-Out scheme is as good a reason as any not to give tax credits for political donations. That would prevent it from ahppening (and the scheme was available to all parties - that the Liberals didn't figure that out is their own problem).
I didn't say there shouldn't be any limits. I'm saying that the limits we have don't apply to pre-election spending. Are you saying they should?
[updated Thu Nov 06 20:06:34 EST 2008]
06 Nov 20:06
larryl
lex. When it is obvious they are campaigning before the writ is dropped then the expenses incurred should be included in the campaign limits. They built a studio to produce ads to be used during the campaign and that should be counted as campaign spending. By using tactics to get around the rules they are proving just how ethical they really are or should I sat are not.
[updated Thu Nov 06 20:36:29 EST 2008]
06 Nov 20:36
Lex Llewdor
Ethics has nothing at all to do with the law.
[updated Mon Nov 10 15:59:34 EST 2008]
10 Nov 15:59
hollinm
larryl....you illustrious leader said the timing of the election was in his hands and it was he and only he who would decide when the next election would take place.
Funny how that worked out eh!
In case you haven't heard politics is a blood sport and Harper has learned from the Liberals over the years. The Liberals maligned Stockwell Day, Preston Manning and any other leader over the years who dared threaten their right to be the natural governing party.
Dion was not a leader and even his party believed it to be the case.
[updated Sat Nov 15 08:33:10 EST 2008]
15 Nov 08:33
larryl
hollin.The Conservative Reform Alliance Party passed a law to prevent the government from calling the election at their whim. That law was real C.R.A.P. manipulation of their own rules . Dion actually thought they would follow their own law but overestimated the integrity of the C.R.A.P. Where do Conservatives come up with this thinking that the Liberals had a right to be the natural governing party. Could it be from the provincial examples of 35 consecutive years of Tory rule in Ontario and the 37 years and still counting in Alberta.Are the Conservatives in Alberta the natural governing party or does that only apply to Liberals who have never held power for more than 16 consecutive years. How can you not attack a man who believes the earth is 6000 years old or a bible thumping preacher ?
[updated Sat Nov 15 09:13:55 EST 2008]
15 Nov 09:13
hollinm
larryl...if you follow politics you will recall the Liberals and of course their sycophant media referring to them as the natural governing party. No end of news columns have talked about the demise of the "natural governing party". That label has been earned because they have been the federal government for most of the last century.
You know as well as I do the fixed election date law was passed but that law did not change the constitutional responsibilites of the GG and the Liberals argued this very thing when the legislation was being discussed. They said as long as the PM had the right to go to the GG it was not really a firm fixed election date. This was particularly the point in a minority parliament where it specifically states the opposition still has the right to defeat the government on a vote of non confidence.
Your inept leader kept poking the bear and suggesting it was he who would determine when the next election would take place. Then he proceeded to tie up the House committees so that no legislation was being discussed but the in and out and Cadman issues. He was also promoting an economy killing carbon tax. So Harper decided the people needed to decide and he let democracy take its course. Given what happened to the economy his decision was precient and he put his job on the line.
Every indication was Dion and his posse were going to vote non confidence in October and we would have been into an election anyway but he wasn't going to give them the edge. Good tactics and strategy if you ask me.
Harper did break the spirit of the legislation but the Liberals deserved it and it caught them with their pants down. It looked great on them stumbling and bumbling with a disorganized campaign and a leader arguing for a $40 billion new tax, almost $50 billion in new spending proposals while saying the country was going into a deficit and recession. Something didn't compute but it made sense to Liberals I guess.
[updated Sat Nov 15 19:50:08 EST 2008]
15 Nov 19:50
hollinm
larryl....Just a friendly reminder that no expenses incurred by a poitical party outside of the writ period are included as campaign expenses.
The problem with your Liberals is that they are broke and could not afford to mount any kind of advertising campaign b4 the writ was dropped.
Remember there is truth in advertising. If Dion had acted as a "leader" the Conservative ads would have been dismissed by the public. However, Dion had to find a scapecoat for his own incompetence and so used the Conservatives advertising as the reason.
Its like the old hidden agenda thing with Harper. The Liberals played it for 4 elections but eventually the public dismissed it as just politics.
[updated Sat Nov 15 08:28:06 EST 2008]
15 Nov 08:28
larryl
Hollin. It is typical of Conservatives to find ways of getting around the rules. We saw it with the In/Out scheme and the Cadman attempted bribe.A lawsuit to silence the opposition are all fine with CPC supporters. With the setup and operation of their own propaganda studio they found a way to get around campaign spending rules. Make your own commercials before the writ is dropped and then show them after the election is called.Spend as much as you can between elections since the rules don't apply. We know these technics were used before but usually by extreme right wing governments trying to control the population. Does the name Goebbel's mean anything to you. As to the hidden agenda , maybe we are starting to see their real intent. I warned during the campaign they would sell off our country a little at a time and that looks like it is about to start. The Harris Tories that Flaherty was a part of gave away publicly owned assets to multi-national corporations. The revenues from selling natural resources will keep us out of deficits in the short term but those revenues will be lost in the future.
Watch for huge areas of crown land going for bargain basement prices. The first step to destroying our country?
[updated Sat Nov 15 08:58:37 EST 2008]
15 Nov 08:58
hollinm
larryl....get real. Your partisan colours are blinding you to reality.
Once again, the in and out system is b4 the courts and time will tell if it was not within the election laws of the time. Don't worry be happy all will be resolved in the fullness of time.
To remind you the RCMP investigated the Cadman thingy and said there was no basis for charges. Once again it is b4 the courts (Harper suing the Liberals) and it will be resolved in time.
Of course in your eyes there can be no innocence because these are Conservatives and they are evil and must be destroyed :-)
Is sounds like the green eyed monster is showing larryl. The Conservatives have money to spend and they are going to spend it. Because your party can only steal taxpayers' money to finance their elections they are having a tough time getting money donated legitimately. If Iggy works hard maybe he can get the Liberals to donate once again. In the meantime the party is heading for bankruptcy. I believe about $2.6 million in parliamentary funding and per vote of $1.84 has disappeared and Dion is already laying off people in the OLO.
So now the Conservaties are going to sell off all the governments assets. Its not to put the money in their pockets larryl. That's what Liberals would do. Harper is doing the best he can with what he's got and is looking at all options.
You sound like a hysterical school girl. Come on..
[updated Sat Nov 15 19:35:16 EST 2008]
15 Nov 19:35
larryl
hollin.I know you have been reading the Star since you have posted there too. The RCMP is being vilified in the press and some are calling for it's disollusion. They have become a corrupt police force and a political tool. Too say they investigated the Cadman affair and found nothing wrong is like asking the fox what happened to the chickens . It doesn't really matter who gets the proceeds from the sale of our country to the U.S. It will still be gone at bargain basement prices. You do know what Harris did in this province. A 99 year lease on the toll highway means we got screwed and they are about to do it again. I would much rather sound like a histerical schoolgirl than a blind old fool. I still can't make any one of you right wing wackos believe I am not and have never been a member of the Liberal party and only support any of their ideas because they are the only party that can keep the C.R.A.P. from achieving the majority that would destroy this country. We just honoured our vets who died for their country , not their province or region . Stay loyal to the CPC and watch them cause the seperation of western Canada and the breakup of our country.
[updated Sat Nov 15 21:17:03 EST 2008]
15 Nov 21:17
hollinm
larryl...if the West separates it will because of the Central Canada media and its fixation on all things Quebec and Liberal.
So now the police are corrupt. Tin foil hats everywhere. Only the Liberals or NDP are going to save Canada eh larryl.
I will stay loyal to the CPC until there is a more viable option. The Liberals are not that option today and for the forseeable future.
You need to move on larryl. Harris is long gone just as Bob Rae is long gone from the Ontario political scene. Do you guys never let anything go? No wonder you see boogey men everywhere.
Harper is the best man to lead the country. Putting that fool Dion in charge would have been a disaster.
[updated Sat Nov 15 22:00:23 EST 2008]
15 Nov 22:00
larryl
Hollin. Do you actually think before you post. Central Canada is fixated on Quebec? Do you really believe the people of Ontario like giving their money to Quebecers. The political parties know where the votes are and they are the ones who pander to Quebec. That includes Harper and had he not screwed up on arts funding he would have won his majority. They buy votes with our money and they need Quebec to win a majority . As for letting go should the west and Alberta in particular stop whining about the NEP of 1981. Harris and his band of idiots are still around but you can't see that. They will sell or give away our country. How much do we still own after years of a low dollar that allowed the Americans to buy most of our corporations . When you get in bed with your huge neighbour don't be surprised if he rolls over and crushes you. You really need to do something about your obvious bigotted opinion of a French Canadian . Show me anyone who is as a big a fool as think Dion is who could receive a PH.D. Your are really showing your true clours with statements like that.
[updated Sun Nov 16 10:07:41 EST 2008]
16 Nov 10:07
hollinm
larryl....read larryl read. I said the Central Canada media to be precise.
I agree all political parties try to buy the voters of Quebec. That's what adscam was all about. Liberals buying elections in Quebec since 1995 with stolen taxpayer money.
However, the reality is that Harper proved that you could win a majority without Quebec but it is a tall order and requires the voters in the ROC voting in large measure for the party they want in government. Diefenbaker did it in the old days. Think about it if he had won a few more seats in Nfld and Ontario he would have had his majority.
As much as you wish it to be so Harper is not Mike Harris and his former ministers work for Stephen Harper and as you Liberals point out Harper runs the government by himself so suggesting that these ministers will reek havoc on Canada is not a legitimate argument.
Just a reminder it was a Conservative government that blocked the take over of a Canadian firm (satellite company) while the Liberals never blocked a take over in the 13 years they were in power. So if Canada has been sold to the Americans it is your party that was responsible. You should stop with the hypocrisy larryl.
I said nothing about Dion being a French Canadian. I said he was a fool because I believed his policies, his campaign and his actions in the last parliament clearly demonstrated he did not deserve to be PM. In fact many in your party believe the same thing.
Being book learned and having street smarts, leadership skills or political instinct is not the same thing and you know it. History is packed with the failings of well educated people. Education is not the only test of an individual's competence.
By the way it looks like the Libs will make the same mistake and elect a patrician arrogant ex professor in May. Sorry for your luck.
[updated Sun Nov 16 15:06:46 EST 2008]
16 Nov 15:06
Foxer
I'm going to take issue with part of your first statement, the part which suggests that conservatives were more likely to vote.
If nik's analysis is right, that would appear not to be true. The fact is, if it were true we should have seen higher results for the libs, and lower results for the CPC, and then seen a different result on election day. Those who stay home still claim they're liberal when asked.
For example - if the final day's polling had said cpc 35 and libs 31 - and we wound up with a different result - that would indicate that the libs stayed home en masse.
Instead, what we see is a steady climb to what the final numbers were - which suggests both liberal AND cpc supporters stayed home in about the same percentages.
While it might be argued that the number of libs staying home was slightly larger, it would seem that the final results were in line with what nik's nightly polling trends suggested they should be if 100 percent of voters turned out.
I think it was just the libs had a bad campaign and a bad leader.
[updated Thu Nov 06 15:24:00 EST 2008]
06 Nov 15:24
Reg
Nik: First, thanks very much for hosting this forum. Although I didn't post very often I really enjoyed it.
Interesting last three days numbers. I think you are probably right that there was much discussion over the turkey and a significant number of people made up their minds at the last minute.
I do wonder however, if Harper's missed opportunity in Quebec about culture and crime was really an error or deliberate. Harper strikes me as a very astute politician and I am very supprised that he would make such a fundamental misjudgement of how his remarks would be taken in Quebec - a Quebec that he was expecting to give him a majority. Could it be that the CPC is setting up to play hardball with Quebec?
As a CPC supporter, I am obviously pleased with the results. Harper will be able to govern as though he had a majority for a significant period of time. I don't see either the Liberals or the NDP wanting another election within the next 2 to 3 years. We may in fact go the full 4 years before another election.
My expectation is that the Liberals will be more afraid of an election than the NDP and so we will see a repeat of the last parliament where the Liberals will either support the government or abstain while the NDP will cry crocidile tears about how the CPC is hurting the poor "average Canadian around his dinner table".
The real concern I have is rebuilding of the LPC.
I haven't seen any sign yet that they will turn inward and look at what is wrong with their party. Until they are willing to admit that they actually lost the confidence and support of Canadians, they will not take the time to rebuild.
Canada needs two parties that can be government - right now we have only one.
The NDP will never be an acceptable alternative for the vast majority of Canadians. They know this and so have the luxury of taking any position they want without ever being held accountable.
The only real alternative to the CPC is the LPC and they will not be an alternative again until the put their house in order.
The one party who might want an election in the near future (2-3 years) is the CPC. If the LPC doesn't get its house in order and learn to fundraise under the new rules it may will be that the CPC will manufacture a reason for an early election to finish crushing the Libs.
[updated Tue Nov 04 17:04:10 EST 2008]
04 Nov 17:04
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
We are not worried about Quebec in the first place, We can have a Minority forever under Harper, to keep these clones of Trudeau, Chretien,Martin,and other Liberals out of Power. We in Western Canada do like the Liberals period they give everything to these whinning Quebecers.
[updated Tue Nov 04 17:05:56 EST 2008]
04 Nov 17:05
21 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
therightside
the economy was indeed the big hit in the election and it was no surprise that dion was rejected. taxation is a big issue to people in this country who believe (rightly so) that we are over taxed. what i do not know is whether dion could have sold this idea in better economic times or whether someone with better communication skills could have sold that plan irregardless of the economy. canadians made the right choice in my mind, with now not being the time to experiment.
as far as the voter turnout goes, not to begrudge this blogs host but i think the constant inundation of polling turned many off. conservatives stayed home, content in the knowledge that conservatives would win. liberal voters stayed home convinced of their own defeat. when you look at the polls compared to the actual ballot count, the election provides the largest sample size a pollster could ask for and it was accurate (congrats nik!!!!). i think if you want to draw people out to the polls, polling has to be limited. either that or enforce laws similar to that in australia.
as far as losing the majority, quebec is a province that should be very thankful that it contains a third of the seats in parliament. conservatives simply cannot win such a socialist province and still be able to keep its base out west (see brian mulroney and the rise of reform). i for one do not like the pandering that goes on for that province. give them 50 less seats and see which party gives a damn for them.
[updated Tue Nov 04 18:11:56 EST 2008]
04 Nov 18:11
32 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
pneilson
I think Harper is a very good leader - capable, steady and focused, with a plan for where he wants to take the country. He's not flashy. He's not a "rock star". He just gets the job done.
The "scary" moniker of Chretien, Martin and Dion has at last been proven completely false. The only "scary" thing in this election was watching the man who fancied himself as PM, Stephane Dion, self-destruct in one of the poorest run, self-dillusional campaigns I've seen in my lifetime. The Liberals clearly have no plan, no vision and no leaders (plural) that I can discern. They are bereft of any sense of identity or brand. When I hear the word "Liberal" today, I see a cynical, arrogant, entitled politician seeking only power for power's sake, with his finger in the wind to see which way the polls are blowing to make his promise-of-the-day. They will spin like a weather vane if it will get them votes.
Harper is a good leader, and I believe, given another term in office with the possibility of a future majority freeing him from the necessity of politiking, he could become a truly great prime minister. I think in these times of uncertainty, people sensed this, and voted for the steady, capable hand on the wheel, rather than a mad experiment with an unproven tax grab from a testy professor who proved unable to communicate in the language of 76% of the population.
[updated Tue Nov 04 18:41:18 EST 2008]
04 Nov 18:41
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