New Nanos National Poll - CP, 32%, LP 30%, NDP 20%, GP 10%, BQ 9%

Well well it appears that Canadians are having second thoughts about Harper and his band of incompetent clowns. The very fact that Liberal supporters sat on their hands in the last election was of some comfort to me because they didn't and couldn't vote for Harper or lyin Jack, the greens, etc.

And with the Libs getting a NEW LEADER they should get lots or press while the economy goes down the tubes from Tory mismanagement.

I believe the Libs will try and topple the cons b/f the end of this year.

[updated Wed Nov 19 16:46:50 EST 2008]

Honestly - i think conservative supporters just don't answer telephone polls as much between elections. This is about what we saw from nic's numbers just before the election - where suddenly they jumped up and stayed fairly high thru the election, and now nosedive back to where they've been for a while.

It is interesting to note that almost every pollster missed calling this election badly.

I think that there's going to have to be a serious rethink about how we conduct polls to gain better accuracy. I have seen absolutely zero increase in liberal support around here, nor have i heard of any anywhere else, nor is there really an event that would tend to suggest there should be (other than dion quitting, which admittedly might bump them up a bit. The guy was an albatross around their neck).

Something's changed, and we're just not seeing the kind of accuracy we used to. Perhaps voters are just more volitile, or perhaps more people refuse to take polls.

[updated Wed Nov 19 16:51:07 EST 2008]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081118.weconomy19/BNStory/politics/home

"OTTAWA — Jim Flaherty may be set to become the first federal finance minister in nearly 40 years to oversee a return to budget deficits,"

IHS Global Insight Canada managing director Dale Orr said Mr. Flaherty and the Conservatives should have taken better precautions against a deficit, noting they cut some rainy-day cushions and drove program spending up 13.8 per cent in their first two years.

It's also hard to find an economist who supports the Conservatives' decision to forgo $11-billion of annual revenue and cut the goods and services tax by two points, instead of using that fiscal room for productivity-enhancing, broad-based income-tax cuts.

That notwithstanding, Mr. Orr said, he believes Mr. Flaherty “is certainly the best person in the Conservative cabinet to be the finance minister.”

"If Ottawa runs a deficit in the 2009-2010 fiscal year, as bank economists have predicted, it will be the first in 13 years. It will also be the first time Ottawa has slid into the red from a surplus since 1970-1971.

That's despite the fact that Mr. Flaherty – a soldier in Mike Harris's Common Sense Revolution – declared several times this year that he wouldn't be the finance minister who oversees the return of deficits."

[updated Wed Nov 19 17:26:02 EST 2008]

It is far too early to determine what the trend will be in the coming days/weeks.

However, there is one thing I have noted. The government is being much more proactive about promoting and explaining their agenda. That is a good thing, The Libs, NDP and Bloc will have a hard time getting away with their sometimes outrageous comments about what the government is doing when government ministers are front and centre.

It is also clear we as a country are in for a tough ride and the government is signalling that everyday. They are making the right noises and that is good. Keep Canadians in the loop.

Canadians will decide whether they are doing the right things over time and not the opposition parties.

[updated Wed Nov 19 17:58:24 EST 2008]

It all goes to show that elections are related to the stock market whose prime motivating force is emotion rather than common sense. The volatity of the voter at large is surprising but looking back at recent previous elections it is easy to see those surprising swings when something negative pops up or is deliberately introduced into the election process.

The fact a new Liberal leader is in the offing has to be positive for the Grits. The deficit word is a negative and, seemingly, the electorate expects the Government to have some foolproof crystal ball in these economic times to predict the future begs common sense. One usually has difficulty predicting the future in their own family with stable economic times but governments are supposed to have Extra Sensory Perception ? ? ?Governments are made up of people like you and me with all our flaws but Governments employ a trained Civil Service to give them the best advice possible but even that is not flawless assuming Ministers listen.

Yes, job losses in the manufacturing belt understandably will be a big negative when Government, at this moment, appears to have no plan to implement. This is where the "huge" Unemployment Insurance surplus should be readily available to give some relief. The melt down of the Alberta Heritage Fund must be a real shocker to the core area of Conservative support and a further discussion of a cutback in Alberta's per capita spending must be another shocker for Conservativeland. It would seem to me common sense to cut back provincial spending when the bottom has been knocked out of your revenues.

I believe another consideration has to have come out of the Winnipeg Policy Convention where the far right of the party---the Reform element--- indicated they were alive and well and they "would have their way" if at all possible-----if not now, then in the future. They got the press and, in my opinion, they have somewhat devalued the Conservative persona in the eyes of the electorate at large. I referred to this particular aspect as Harper's threat from within.

One positive is that time heals all and the electorate has a short term memory and usually no long term memory.

[updated Wed Nov 19 18:26:04 EST 2008]

The next election is a long way off. What was the purpose of this poll? Seems rather useless except for a few political junkies to argue over.

[updated Wed Nov 19 18:41:12 EST 2008]

Warning Warning do not listen to any Liberals or the EDC about exporting to China, Civil unrest is happening and Canadian (BC) companies are not getting paid by Chinese Banks, Do not let a Chinese in Canada scam you about investing or visiting China!!!!!
Stay Away For Your Own Good!!!!!!!

[updated Wed Nov 19 22:24:57 EST 2008]

I was a little surprised with this poll and the direction it's going in. It's immaterial . It has no significance now that the election is over , other than to satisfy the curiosity of some of us (me included). It has no intrinsic value.

Nik's comments on the Mike Duffy show were spot on. So I won't rehash them here.
I cannot help but think that Harper's response to the economy crisis and reaction to the convention in Winnipeg will be eroding his popularity over time.

As Tom so often reminds us governments engineer their own demise.

[updated Thu Nov 20 08:28:01 EST 2008]

Rubbish ! The "Greens" at 10% more like .01%.This poll is worthy of the trash bin.

[updated Thu Nov 20 08:35:01 EST 2008]

Certainly some of the Liberal rebound will be as a result of the Dion resignation, although I think voters may well find Rae and Ignatieff equally unpalatable. I think the drop in Conservative support is largely Harper's pre-election comments about recession, deficits and the market (bargain hunting anyone? the markets off another 3000 points since then!) coming back on him.

We are pretty much back to where we were a month before the election. A lot will depend, going forward, on how Harper conducts himself and his Party in Parliament over the next few months, and on his first budget.

[updated Thu Nov 20 12:01:20 EST 2008]

Martha Hall Findley is acting like a bit of an ass in Parliament right now at 11:41 am pacific do you not think, Habs was this your choice for Leader of the Liberal Party, I think so!

[updated Thu Nov 20 14:42:09 EST 2008]