Our most recent national poll indicates support for the federal Liberals continues to incrementally trend upwards.
Considering the economy is in the midst of a significant downturn, the Conservatives have generally done well in maintaining their overall support. While they continue to trail the Liberals it’s not realistic for an incumbent government to expect their polling numbers to improve in this economy. The reality is that the Conservatives are still strong in the West and are generally competitive in Ontario. The greatest erosion of Conservative support has occurred in the province of Quebec.
Although the numbers in Quebec for the Conservatives are currently low, one should be cautious because voter volatility in Quebec has historically been much higher than in other parts of the country. A look at Ontario indicates that the Liberals currently have an eight point lead. We know from our research that Ontarians tend to be more concerned about the economy compared to other Canadians and the widening margin could be indicative of increased grumpiness among voters in Ontario.
Support for the NDP is incrementally improving but still below average compared to the high-teens. Support for the NDP in Ontario is another critical factor which could influence potential vote splits. The Conservatives have an interest in a more competitive NDP, especially in Ontario where vote splits would favour the Liberals. Hypothetically, an economic downturn should be a time when the NDP should be able to reassert itself and demonstrate more relevance but Jack Layton and the NDP have not realized that potential at this time.
The Nanos polling suggests that EI is not an “election worthy” issue to trigger an election. Generally, Canadians are very pragmatic and are more interested in solutions than political posturing by the federal party leaders. In a minority situation, there is an expectation that none of the parties will get everything they demand in regards to EI reform. The questions will be whether the opposition judge the changes enough or whether it the issue is a show stopper. Also, based on past experience, the default position for most voters is not to have an appetite for an election but that this subsides once the election begins. It’s not surprising that Canadians likely want to see stability and solutions at this point in time.
Methodology
Polling between May 26 and June 1, 2009. (Random Telephone Survey of 1,001 Canadians, 18 years of age and older). A survey of 1,001 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed Voters Only - First Choice)
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the last Nanos Omnibus Survey completed in April 2009.
Committed Voters - Canada (N=879, MoE ± 3.3%, 19 times out of 20)
- Liberal Party 37% (+1)
- Conservative Party 32% (-1)
- NDP 16% (+1)
- BQ 8% (-1)
- Green Party 7% (NC)
(Note: Undecided 12%)
EI as an Election Trigger Question: As you may know, there have been discussions and proposals related to Employment Insurance. Is disagreement about how Employment Insurance could be changed important enough or not important enough to trigger a federal election?
- Not important enough 60%
- Important enough 31%
- Unsure 10%
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Uneven numbers like this will soon lead to an election. Why wait for more Steph... more
supper (British Columbia) 06 Jun 18:48
To quote Yogi Berra " one thing I can't predict is the future". :-) It appears ... more
Bernie (Ontario) 07 Jun 07:52
Nik, If Canadians are seeking "stability and solutions", it logically flows fro... more
RonaldODowd (Ontario) 06 Jun 22:06
psi. What have you been smoking. Do you really believe Steve in his desire for p... more
larryl (Ontario) 08 Jun 14:32
Why stop there, maybe there will never be another election because Harper will b... more
Jack (Ontario) 08 Jun 14:35
I voted for the Liberals for a very long time and assisted from councillor to Pr... more
Informed1 (suspended) (Ontario) 08 Jun 11:19
Comments
supper
Uneven numbers like this will soon lead to an election. Why wait for more Stephen Ugly ads?
[updated Sat Jun 06 18:48:19 EDT 2009]
06 Jun 18:48
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RonaldODowd
Nik,
If Canadians are seeking "stability and solutions", it logically flows from that assertion that that means long-term political stability to address our economic challenges. Translation: the necessity of a government with a political mandate for a solid five years.
That also means either the Liberals or Conservatives have to move their numbers. In Harper's case, he gets to wear both his record and his personal leadership style. In my view, that precludes any possibility of his party forming a majority government.
Turning to the Liberals -- so goeth Ontario, so goeth the nation. That party has to build on the personal goodwill afforded to Michael Ignatieff. The platform is coming. It will be instrumental in how the party is perceived by the voters. Slow, steady as she goes Liberalism will bear more fruit than either a tilt toward the right or left of center.
In my view, Michael has to run a campaign at least as solid as Harper's in 2006. The Liberals have to stay on message each day and must do everything they can to generate the perception, and later the reality, of the inevitability of a future Liberal government. If this can be done, they will be well on their way to bumping up their numbers thus giving them a shot at a majority win.
[updated Sat Jun 06 22:06:10 EDT 2009]
06 Jun 22:06
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Bernie
To quote Yogi Berra " one thing I can't predict is the future". :-)
It appears to me that the Liberals have enough support east of Manitoba to win an election. All that's left for them is to grow a little more in the West. That appears entirely possible in BC and Manitoba. At this point the NDP should have been able to raise their profile but it seems like Layton is inept in selling his policies.
I don't see any way for Harper to win a majority (thank God) so the sooner we get rid of him and his bad government the better. I don't understand why Canadians would tolerate this regressive government for any length of time. The sooner we have an election the better. Money isn't everything. Ralph Waldo Emerson said, "Money often costs too much."
One issue may not create the need for an election, but a continuous list of bad policy surely does. We will never get stability nor appropriate solutions to our problems with Harper at the helm.
[updated Sun Jun 07 07:52:11 EDT 2009]
07 Jun 07:52
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psiclone
I am quite simply amazed that the Conservative numbers aren't way worse! Think of it folks a right wing PM with 2 minority terms under his belt conducting an unpopular shooting war in a foreign country, fighting off a series of opponent partys leaders, a global recession the likes of we haven't seen in god knows how many years ... yet he is still in the game. Now this quite obviously tells me that we have one of those rare breeds on our hands and it is amazing to watch. I think Harper has the ability to make left wing nuts go absolutley crazy and it is sure fun to watch! I do notice that a pattern is developing and this not bode well for the liberals. I was expecting a much higher incerease in the LPC numbers coming out of the pseudo leadership convention with his party all soundly behind him (never a good sign) however this doesn't appear to be the case and if the usual summer doldrums come into play Iggy will not be in a good position come this fall. I have a sneaking suspicion that not only will there be no election this summer but that there will be no election in the fall and next spring well who knows in point of fact I wouldn't be surprised if there is no election next year as well and Harper will be sitting in the PM's chair when he brings the troops home and wouldn't that be something!
[updated Mon Jun 08 13:52:28 EDT 2009]
08 Jun 13:52
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larryl
Just received this open letter to the P.M. Any opinions would be welcome.
Dear Mr. Harper,
Please find below my suggestion for fixing Canada's economy. Instead of giving billions of dollars to banks and car companies, that will squander the money on lavish parties and unearned bonuses, use the following plan:
There are about 20 million people over 50 in the work force. Pay them $1 million apiece severance for early retirement with the following stipulations:
1) They MUST retire. Twenty million job openings - Unemployment fixed.
2) They MUST buy a new Canadian CAR. Twenty million cars ordered - Auto Industry fixed.
3) They MUST either buy a house or pay off their mortgage - Housing Crisis fixed.
4) They must send their kids to school / college /university - Crime rate fixed
5) Buy $50 of alcohol / tobacco / gas a week... there's your money back in duty / tax etc
It can't get any easier than that!
P.S. If more money is needed, have all members of parliament pay back their falsely claimed expenses and second home allowances.
If you think this would work, please forward to everyone you know. If not, please disregard.
[updated Mon Jun 08 14:02:20 EDT 2009]
08 Jun 14:02
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