New Nanos National Ballot - Impressions of Harper and Ignatieff measured

So Harper is only liked in the Prairies, and only +9 at that, very sad personal numbers. Big surprise. This is clear that Harper is a dead weight on the CPC.

This is also proof positive Harper is tanking the party. If we had a new more likable leader, the CPC would be in the driver's seat. The National numbers for parties show a willingness to vote CPC, but a dislike of Harper.

But I'm sure the desperate Harper supporters will be out saying this is fake Liberal poll (or "its just one poll" how many times have we heard that one?). Who cares how many CPC like him, he can't win an election on CPC committed voters. The CPC has a chance here and Harper's unpopular persona is blowing it, again.

New leader, new winning CPC.

[updated Sat Jun 27 01:04:07 EDT 2009]

I'm heartened to see Canadians turning on the PM. When more people see that Stephen Harper is a user, I hope it will get much worse for him. He's been misleading us about the war and using the troops to help bolster his support, while not actually helping us at all. Terribly sleezy. As a soldier this disgusts me to no end. I feel terribly used. Read these articles, they are the truth and it sickens me.

Operation Embargo: Canada spins the truth in Afghanistan
Brian Hutchinson, National Post June 26, 2009

This is how we support the troops?
Gerald Caplan The Globe and Mail June 26 2009

[updated Sat Jun 27 02:39:58 EDT 2009]

I believe both Harper and Ignatieff knew they could not win a majority otherwise there would have been an election. Politics is the art of the opportune moment and neither are neophites there. National commentators appear to give the edge to Ignatieff in this little scrum but it did force Harper to appear somewhat statesman-like.......something he should have done a long time ago in this minority situation and he would have been laughing at this point in time if he had understood the meaning of the word.

In this land of inequalities in the voting place, the future of Canada continues to reside with the voters of Ontario despite what the vote rich Atlantic provinces think or the vote poor West thinks. Ontario is the battle ground. BUT, the ballooning deficit has to be paid for by all Canadians and that may not be sitting well with those voters who may have accepted a small deficit but not the monster we now face. In Ontario the voter is faced with provincial funds, too, that have gone into the bailout so they are not laughing at the future doublewhammy payback costs. In BC, as with all Canadians, there will be future payback levies and, in this province, we are faced also with the 2010 Olympics costs and over runs that have remained largely hidden by the government thus far but, I would speculate, they will make 5 billion look mighty sick. Our forestry sector has also tanked over the last number of years. Are we laughing in BC ???? In Alberta, the home of the Alliance / Reform, pay-your-own-way, protest parties, they are likely to have diminished humour for the ballooning federal deficit especially as their own provincial economy is tanking at the moment.

At this time we appear to be looking at who we may vote FOR. Somehow, I get the feeling the coming election may very well have devolved into who we are voting AGAINST as somebody has not done enough creative thinking and let us down also known as a pocket book issue.

What does all this mean for Harper. That is hard to guess as he has been most consistent about being inconsistent. What does it mean for Ignatieff. That is also hard to guess as he, and thus the Liberal platform, are unknown quantities as the summer recess looms. Given all the imponderables I would guess we are a year away from an election.

[updated Sat Jun 27 05:15:50 EDT 2009]

Nik made a couple of good points here besides the poll numbers which are impressive for Iggy.

1. minority fatigue....this is what I perceive Iggy is working on. He will surely use that to state his reasons for simply forcing Harper to do something for the economy instead of forcing an election while we are in the bowels of the recession. He will however not want to see the economy recover too fast either in terms of an election. Iggy just needs to keep building his base, continue with his great fund raising model and start to define where an Iggy run government could take us. When he starts to do that you will know an election is near at hand.

2. Ontario......the province has lost its swagger for now and that has softened the Libs tally there temporarily. Once Iggy starts to define his Liberal model and the stimulus money that Harpo has promised here fails to deliver the jobs needed the Tories will tank even further. Ontario is the battle ground as Quebec will not float back to the cons while Harper is in charge. He has lost that province totally and Ontario will likely follow suit.

Overall Iggy is doing well except in the Parairies as his BC numbers appear to be decent and the maritime vote is all but locked up even though Harpo is spendng siginificant time and money there these days.

[updated Sat Jun 27 05:39:59 EDT 2009]

There's no doubt that there's a serious concern about the economy, especially in Ontario.What's relevant, tho, is not so much that there's a downturn but the degree it has fallen in comparison to what it had been previously. If this causes a reversal of support for the party in power , then why has it not happened in Alberta where their economy has really fallen compared to what it was there.

Also how much effect does this have? Remember the unemployment rate is still less than 10% and since the economy is not their only concern and for some of them it is not the going to change their vote pattern. Even if you take in the next closest 10% of losing their jobs, how much change in the voting pattern takes place? Does the other 80% care enough to change their vote?

If voters are so concerned about the economy why would they vote for Harper at all. He obviously knows very little about it. To cut taxes when the economy was good , when he should be raising it and cutting down the debt or building a nest egg for a down cycle. To not see a severe recession coming when all leading independent economists where forecasting it. Even after it hit, denying it was there and not taking steps to lessen its impact. Only when forced by political considerations when he was finally forced to admit it he make a half-hearted attempt to placate those who were causing the most opposition.

I really don't believe the economy has had a real serious impact on the voting consideration as most people think. The voting pattern hasn't changed all that much over the last three years justifies that belief.

Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces are all interested in employment insurance. Since they make up such a large per cent of the population you would expect greater change in their voting if it was a big determinant in their voting.
Of course they may change suddenly when time comes to reveal their real intentions after a campaign and how that campaign turns out.

I know this is a personal thing but I get irritated when I hear a person (politician) having terms like "defined" and "brand' applied to him/her. They are fine for inanimate objects not for people. You can't apply defined or brand to a person They are for words or terms in a dictionary. Humans are too multi-faceted for that.
Look up the word "run" in the dictionary. What definition do you use? The first, second or third, or way down the list. Well humans have even many more defitnitions. If you use one or a few , you miss the whole person. So let's dispense with these terms in referring to them.

You know what my views on minority government is. I'm all for them. There is more damage done by a bad policy of a majority government than there is benefit of good policy.
When it's bad have enough to cause serious harm during a minority it is more easily corrected. In a majority we have to wait for an election . That may be too late. Even if we overturn that government the negative effects may and can last much longer.
If we demanded that our representatives represent us and not the party or the leader then we wouldn't have to worry about it.

[updated Sat Jun 27 08:37:15 EDT 2009]

It would appear that Iggy's numbers at this time are simply a reflection of the fact that he is not Harper. How could any right thinking Canadian determine who they will vote for based on a Liberal party that has no policies, tries to force elections every other week and then runs and hides when the rubber hits the road. This coupled with a leader who knows little about the country first hand and comes across as an arrogant blowhard.

So in an election where the campaigns mean something, the record of the government will be examined, good or bad, Canadians will come to see that regardless of whether they like Stephen Harper, he has managed the economy well whereas the Libs have been aligning themselves with the left side of the political spectrum in an effort to pick off NDP and Bloc support.

The other issue is, as Nik points out, is minority fatigue where the parties are always in election mode and the opposition parties instead of paying attention to the business of the country keep threatening to vote against the government if they don't get their way. This is not any way to run the country.

There are serious issues to be dealt with in the country and the government needs to be able to deal with those issues without being hamstrung at every turn by an official opposition whose lust for power knows no bounds.

So the Libs on this board can take solace in the Iggy positive numbers but I would suggest that while Harper may not be loved by Canadians and is certainly loathed by those who do not support the Conservative party ordinary Canadians will see that he has done a reasonable job under difficult circumstances and has/is dealing with the issues that matter to them.

[updated Sat Jun 27 09:27:05 EDT 2009]

Dear Nik,

thanks again for adding some more insight. I am trying to look for a convergence of Polling with the other ones conducted around the same time to find a pattern.

Has the Provinical Election helped boost the numbers for the NDP, LPC vs Cons during this Poll. It appears so.

Are these the only questions asked? Have you ever done research and determined after collecting the data the question may have been leading or not structured correctly?

I noticed an interesting pattern in the Atlantic Region with the NDP gaining power, the largest move in Regional voting was NDP from Conservatives, possibly the effect of the provincial election.

I have noted the small sample size as highlighted.

1) A very interesting comment about voter fatigue and voters applying a different lens to the brinkmanship during the economic difficulty for parties who continue to use brinkmanship and it's negative impact on the ability to govern.

How were you able to glean that from those questions asked, or is this a general statement taken from analysis of the last few polls?

In two other National Polls especially in Ontario the Liberals and Iggy's credibility took a substantial hit for their brinkmanship over threatening to withold support and having a less than graceful exit plan.

Your Regional Poll shows the CPC make a substantial lift in Ontario from 33.8 to 42.4 while the Liberals lose 42.1 to 40.9.

The NDP lost 3 pts, Greens also took a big hit. Interesting to note the undecided went from 11 to 22.5.

This appears to be very good news as Polling numbers are showing a solid basement for the CPC in Ontario and the Liberals have only made a modest improvement in BC.

The lead or gap that was being demostrated by all the Polls has been eliminated on a National basis with each party again shoring up support in their regional strongholds.

The Liberals inside large urban centres namely Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal, the Bloc in Quebec, the CPC in the Prairies and regaining a comfortable margin in Ontario.

The NDP are also trending up to reach their historical norms on a national scale.

[updated Sat Jun 27 09:56:34 EDT 2009]

Bad News For Harper: It's Called "Undecided".

Our poor Prime Minister. He's at 42% in Ontario and he thinks that's a game changer. Well, he might want to delude himself but the rest of us know he is grasping at straws. If the PM's assessment was correct, the Liberals would have dropped a hell of a lot more than ONE point in Ontario. That would signify a clear trend toward the Conservatives. Ain't happening, now or as long as Stephen Harper heads the CPC.

Now let's move to the undecided: to my mind this subset of voters are a combination of mainly left-of-center and center voters. Translation: they are not Harper's natural voting block. When the number of undecided is significant, that reveals a marked hesitation toward all the parties but particularly the incumbent government. In other words, they may be unenthusiastic fans of many but in the final analysis, a dependable ally of a few. In the present instance, the marked increase in undecided across the board reveals that resistance to Harper has meant weighing whether to vote either Liberal or New Democrat. That trend is also accentuated in party numbers. To oversimplify, as long as a broad trend line shows both the Liberals and NDP moving up nationally with a seesaw between the two, that is good news for Michael Ignatieff. That means those voters can be counted upon to vote for him when momentum often reaches its apex, on the eve of the actual vote. It's clear that the undecided have discounted the Conservatives entirely, largely due to the incredible negatives of the Prime Minister. Harper can't and won't bounce back from that. He can trim those negative numbers at the margins but recovery is quite simply out of the question. This would seem to confirm Jack's thesis that as long as Stephen Harper is in the picture, he can serve as nothing more than a lightning rod for progressive and other left-of-center voters. Ergo, his political goose is cooked.

Harper had to see Liberal hemorrhaging to have a fighting chance. His personal negatives are the backstop the Liberals need to counter that possibility. In most voters' minds, it's over for Stephen Harper.

As you know, I've advocated on behalf of the majority syndrome. If a bandwagon effect manifests itself, that will be devastating news for the PM. Given Harper's negatives, should it come to pass, Ignatieff will be heading a comfortable majority government. Right now, it's clearly not in the cards but the strength of the Liberal campaign will either make or break that possibility.

The Liberals have learned valuable lessons since they reached an accord with the Conservatives on Employment Insurance. Watch what comes out of the Blue Ribbon Panel and look for a broad-based consensus among commissioners. Anything short of that will mean trouble for the Harper government.

The die seems increasingly cast in the form of a Liberal minority government. For Stephen Harper, his political survival depends on effectively tearing down Michael Ignatieff. That is his only oar in the water. With the store bet on that particular political strategy, he might as well be paddling up the Horseshoe Falls...

[updated Sat Jun 27 11:51:07 EDT 2009]

Harper is taking a beating from his supporters over at the NP. He is slowly losing his grip on his right-wing supporters by pandering to the left.

National Post editorial board: The vote needs protection, not weakening
Posted: June 27, 2009, 10:30 AM by NP Editor

[updated Sat Jun 27 12:14:26 EDT 2009]

Stephen Harper’s summer of love

STEPHEN MAHER LETTER FROM OTTAWA
Sat. Jun 27 - 4:46 AM

PRIME MINISTER Stephen Harper kicked off his summer of oversized cheques with a visit to Halifax on Thursday in which he showed us some money and some love.

If he keeps going like this — and I don’t see why he shouldn’t — this should be a good summer for him and a bad summer for Michael Ignatieff

Because Parliament is on recess until Sept. 14, Mr. Harper doesn’t have to cope with pesky opposition attacks; he can fly around the country dispensing cheques and blandly discussing the economy — a walking, talking economic action plan, tailor-made for your TV screen.

And Mr. Ignatieff can say nothing about this.

What’s he going to do? Criticize Mr. Harper for making Pier 21 a national museum?

The Liberals can’t really attack because, this winter, after his failed economic update, Mr. Harper had to chart a course for the economy more or less as they wanted.

Because of this, the Liberals have had to attack on employment insurance — which has not turned out to be the political winner they had hoped — and managerial competence, which is a hard case to make to voters even when ministers are leaving secret documents in TV studios.

Mr. Ignatieff made things easier for Mr. Harper at the end of the session when he awkwardly led the country to the brink of an election, seemingly without a good tactical plan for the showdown, and Mr. Harper saved the day by agreeing to appoint a bipartisan blue ribbon panel to study EI.

Part of the deal for the Liberals is that they get to vote on the panel’s results in September, which gives them a trigger for the election they want.

But the awkward manner in which Mr. Ignatieff won the concession makes it less likely that he will be brave enough to pull that trigger.

The latest EKOS poll shows the Liberals trailing the Tories for the first time in months, all a result of Mr. Ignatieff’s amateurish management of the showdown.

The Liberals are reduced, therefore, to spending the summer getting themselves organized, sending Mr. Igna-tieff to more barbecues and hoping, desperately, that Mr. Harper’s team does something stupid.

Otherwise, it will be a long summer of Mr. Harper looking good and Mr. Ignatieff struggling to get any TV time at all.

Meanwhile, the Tory attack ads play on in heavy rotation, fixing in Canadians’ minds the idea that Count Ignatieff is some kind of funny foreigner.

[updated Sat Jun 27 14:12:59 EDT 2009]

Come on Guys.

Please stop behaving like children in pre-kindergarten -- we get it -- God knows each of you has made the same points ad infinitum...we get how each of you feels about the other leader (not to mention each other) but frankly, it's starting to get rather tedious, old and lame.

Give it a rest. Please. No one is interested in written water boarding. Amen to that.

[updated Sat Jun 27 15:43:49 EDT 2009]

Dear Ronald do you agree with the statement the MSM, Press Gallery has a Liberal bias?

1) Jane Taber for example ignored the facts that several women are in high positions with the CPC party.
Jane's just plain wrong: Lots of influential women in Harper's PMO by David Akin ( who is another liberal apologist)
http://davidakin.blogware.com/blog/_archives/2009/6/26/4236232.html

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/end-of-session-hot-and-not/article1199079/

Meanwhile, there are rumblings among some grass-root Liberal women that Mr. Ignatieff doesn't quite share that view. Mr. Ignatieff has few female caucus members in key critics' roles and has one senior woman in his entourage: communications director Jill Fairbrother . (Stephen Harper doesn't have a single senior woman.) The rumblings are that if more women were in high places, seeking consensus, we might not have come to the brink of another federal election this month.

“I guess with a war in Afghanistan, a recession, climate change, massive bailouts to male auto workers, women are not much interested in these two white males playing brinkmanship games on the floor of the House of Commons,” said one Liberal involved in trying to get more women into politics. “Women found the whole thing ridiculous.”

Any reasonable explanation how Jane Taber ( she is not a rookie writer) could have overlooked those Conservative women?

Thanks

[updated Sat Jun 27 16:50:21 EDT 2009]

Here's one of the many reasons Harpo needs to go ASAP:

http://www.thestar.com/comment/article/656851

"Of course, the Harper Conservatives came to power decrying the abuses of previous Liberal governments and promising a new era of openness. But in office Harper has undermined the democratic process in alarming ways. He has imposed a culture of secrecy and virtual one-man rule that makes a mockery of our parliamentary system. This is not what Canadians voted for.

Instead of greater transparency, there is opacity. Rather than MPs being empowered, lobbyists are being enriched.

In power, the Conservatives promptly made a mockery of Parliament's committee system by compiling a secret playbook for blocking opposition MPs who might want to examine government operations.

Out of a pathological fear of cabinet ministers or public officials going off script, the Harper PMO has also stifled individual ministers and senior bureaucrats. Departments such as Foreign Affairs, once quick to share news with the public, have gone into a deep freeze."

[updated Sun Jun 28 01:54:40 EDT 2009]

I believe this is another signal from Harpo that he won't be around as PM in January

http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2009/06/28/9959436-sun.html

[updated Sun Jun 28 10:07:52 EDT 2009]

Further proof the vetting of Iggy was not done and will be used during the summer and campaign to chip away the "veneer" of the Liberal leader and his record.

"Set the record straight" Ignatieff needs to rebut hurtful stereotypes

I am not talking about the out of context words used by the CPC in the 10%. ( I am listening to the leaders of the community who feel he has not come clean yet)

But what Ignatieff failed to do was to specifically rebut those harmful stereotypes he cited in his exercise -- namely, the references to "Great Russians," "little Russians" and "nasty anti-Semites." And this is something he must do if wants to get this albatross off his neck and bury it once and for all.

These terms are not only false, they are also grossly insulting to Ukrainians.

First, no Ukrainian would ever call a Russian a "Great Russian."

"Muscovite" would be far more likely. Great Russian is a name Tsarist Russian imperialists decided to give themselves when Peter the Great renamed Muscovy as Russia, intending to usurp the legacy of Kyivan Rus -- the original Ukrainian state. The purpose was to deny Ukrainians their own national identity, relegating them to the role of an inferior "little Russian" branch of the "Great Russian" nation. As such, it must be categorically rejected.

The "nasty anti-Semite" stereotype is a very harmful myth. Ukrainians and Jews lived alongside each other for centuries, sometimes in harmony, sometimes in conflict, and the history of their relations is a complex issue that cannot be addressed by simplistic generalizations.

If Ignatieff wants to address this issue in a definitive way, he can do so in the manner he is best suited to. He can do an academic study of Ukrainian-Jewish relations and come to his own conclusions. During his Edmonton visit, Ignatieff met with the scholars from the Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies who would be more than happy to point him to the right source materials for a starting point.

Were he to do that, he would not only bury the issue once and for all, but gain a great deal of respect from the Ukrainian Canadian community for doing so.

Marco Levytsky is editor of the Edmonton-based, nationally circulated Ukrainian News.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/westview/set-the-record-straight-49378432.html

[updated Sun Jun 28 11:14:45 EDT 2009]

This piece bears more notice as it helps the federalists in quebec and in particular the Libs:
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1714945&p=2

"The Conquest brought "undeniable advantages" to French Canada, he argued, and Pierre Trudeau, far from being the "Devil incarnate," did some great things for the province. He appealed to Quebec's three main political parties to shake the notion that defending the "higher interests" of Quebec must involve a clash with the rest of Canada.

"It is this vision, not federalism or the anglophones, that is keeping modern Quebec from making progress, through the stale debates it breeds, and the irresponsibility and the victim complexes it feeds," he wrote."

[updated Sun Jun 28 11:41:33 EDT 2009]

Great news from the Ontario reformatory campaign;Liberals should rejoice:
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/time+change/1740785/story.html

"Hudak will be running for the third Mike Harris term," said Attorney General Chris Bentley. "He'll be fronting, the Harris gang will be pulling the strings. The only thing the Tories could agree on during this convention were the politics of division -- how much to undermine human rights, pitting one group of Ontarians against another. That's not how you build a strong province." But Hudak was unapologetic about his campaign, which included a pledge to disband the province's human rights tribunal.

[updated Sun Jun 28 11:46:58 EDT 2009]

Why Joe Clark Got It Wrong.

Remember when former Prime Minister Joe Clark told us it was better to go with the devil you know than the one you don't. The voters thought otherwise and put Stephen Harper in the PM's chair.

Now fast forward to the next election. We're starting to see some of the elements that the Conservatives plan to run on in the next campaign. I knew they would take the low road but I never expected to see them sink to such depths.

We heading for a new high in low, even for them. Those poor misguided fools think Canadians will buy into a crud campaign. Look Michael, Harper has very kindly framed the next campaign for us. Run with it. Watch the disgust appear on the faces of everyday Canadians. Watch as it slowly sinks in that we DESERVE better government than this.

I don't know about you but I'm personally sick of politics by the lowest common denominator.

Doesn't sound like traditional Canadian values such as decency, tolerance and mutual respect.

And worse yet, do we want any person leading our nation who would enthusiastically go forward with that type of deliberate political tactic?

I know where I stand. How about you?

[updated Sun Jun 28 13:27:00 EDT 2009]

Senate Speaker Noel Kinsella says PBO should get the money it requests.

And

Prof. McLean, who teaches journalism at Concordia and who wrote an extensive piece on the PBO published in The Hill Times, said the recommendations were all a "power play" to prevent Mr. Page's office from embarrassing the government.

"Play by the rules, or we'll starve you, we'll continue to starve you," Prof. McLean said, adding that the committee has also "watered down" the PBO's responsibilities. "It's all about putting him in a box and keeping him there using all the levers they can."

This stinks of a big cover up by Harper.

[updated Sun Jun 28 23:26:31 EDT 2009]

Liberals need more time to refill Ignatieff's tank
Chantal Hébert

"According to a massive CBC rolling poll, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's threat to set in motion a summer election has cost him the lead in voting intentions. The only saving grace for the Liberals was that his threat turned out to be empty."

n contrast with the Liberal leader, Harper, Gilles Duceppe and Jack Layton have all earned their stripes the hard way, by winning leadership campaigns and fighting multiple general elections. On the week Parliament adjourned, they all sounded more psychologically battle-ready than he did.

The Liberals cannot expect a rookie politician to turn into a seasoned leader overnight. The bigger problem is that there could be more at work in their tepid poll numbers than just a mishandled parliamentary showdown. In central Canada, Ignatieff is fast losing the momentum generated by his successful honeymoon.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/658102

[updated Mon Jun 29 09:28:14 EDT 2009]

http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/story.html?id=1743137
Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff showed "huge strength" by resisting pressure to defeat the government and trigger a summer election, the party's national director says.

In an interview, Rocco Rossi disputed critics who say Mr. Ignatieff's election threat and subsequent deal with Prime Minister Stephen Harper left him looking weak as he hits the barbecue, festival and town hall circuit to prepare for a possible fall campaign.

Mr. Rossi said the Liberals are enjoying fundraising momentum and are "well on track" to exceed an aim of doubling their membership to 100,000 by Labour Day.

Mr. Ignatieff's summer of travel across the country began in Vancouver on the weekend, where he appeared in one of three ridings where byelections will be held in the fall if there is no general election. The others are in Quebec and Nova Scotia. Mr. Ignatieff is hitting the West on Canada Day -- Edmonton in the morning and Winnipeg in the evening.

[updated Mon Jun 29 10:26:58 EDT 2009]

Why doesn't anyone answer the questions: Why is Harper so unpopular and why can't he get the party into the 40's percentage-wise? What is wrong with him as a leader that he could not get a majority against Dion in good times and why can't he gain more than 2% since Iggy is so terrible.

So if Iggy's performance is so horrible (and I don't think it was good), why is Harper so low in personal numbers compared to Iggy an cannot put him away in the polls. Harper is a failure and a sell out to conservatives, that is why. His attack ad scheme has done more harm to harper himself than Iggy and as a result the campaign has been pulled.

New leader, new winning CPC.

[updated Mon Jun 29 14:39:32 EDT 2009]

And You Thought The Best Fireworks Were On Canada Day!

Well, it's official, the Conservatives and Liberals have chosen their respective EI Blue Ribbon Panel representatives...funny how only three words come immediately to mind:

1. lightning
2. rods
3. fireworks

Talk about a long, hot summer and fall -- and I'm definitely not talking weather here.

In this corner: Diane Finley, Pierre Poilievre and HRSD's Malcolm Brown. Can't you just see that mischievous grin on the Prime Minister's face. A bold opening gambit (only two politicos) if ever I saw one by the chess master. The man is without a doubt up to something. No wonder I never try to underestimate this PM.

Across the ring: Liberal representation in the form of Michael Savage, Marlene Jennings and Kevin Chan - who formerly hailed from Harper's PCO. Interesting little twist sending in a man who intimately knows the inner workings of the inner sanctum.

Sorely tempted to say "Advantage" Ignatieff but then I quickly remember who we Liberals are dealing with...

So, in the final analysis, let's call it a draw for now. If this group can reach common agreement, it will be the greatest achievement since the Resurrection.

Like I said folks, keep thinking of lightning rods and fireworks.

[updated Mon Jun 29 22:26:41 EDT 2009]

OUCH! Separatists take a beating.

Kalli Anderson

Special to The Globe and Mail Last updated on Monday, Jun. 29, 2009 06:02PM EDT

The week of Quebec's fête nationale is usually a good one for sovereigntists. But this year, images of flag-waving nationalists singing along to patriotic folk songs were overshadowed by the Quebec media's coverage of a couple of very disappointing developments for the Parti Québécois.

The PQ's failure to win a hotly disputed by-election in Mario Dumont's former riding of Rivière-du-Loup was the first sign of trouble for the party last week. The Liberal candidate, Jean D'Amour won decisively, with 47 per cent of the vote, 11 percentage points ahead of the PQ's star candidate Paul Crête (a former Bloc MP for the area), a result Le Devoir called “a bitter defeat” for the PQ.

[updated Mon Jun 29 22:38:55 EDT 2009]

The Opposition have been screaming the since the Economic Update to "Show Me The Money"

Be careful what you ask for, looks like the next report Card will reinforce the Stimulus is getting out.

The Hill Times, June 29, 2009
By Harris MacLeod
FCM says there's 'tangible indicators' infrastructure money is starting to flow
But Liberals question the federal government's lack of strategy and long-term vision
Displaying start of article containing 869 words - The Federation of Canadian Municipalities says there are "tangible indicators" the billions of dollars in government infrastructure money is flowing.

A few months ago the FCM was complaining that its members weren't seeing any of the federal government's promised infrastructure stimulus funding, and the organization had few warm words for Transport Minister John Baird (Ottawa West-Nepean, Ont.) who is charged with administering the fund.

[updated Tue Jun 30 07:09:15 EDT 2009]

http://timestranscript.canadaeast.com/opinion/article/714263

This article typifies Candians dislike and distrust of Harpo

[updated Tue Jun 30 07:18:11 EDT 2009]

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/658647

The LIBERAL love in is underway

[updated Tue Jun 30 10:28:37 EDT 2009]

The Big Red Machine is in Full Damage Control Mode.

2008 Liberals had around 40,000 donors?
2008 Liberals raised under $ 6 million, a loss of over 1 million from 2007?

Can the loss be attributed to the worst showing in 100 years of the Politicial Welfare Subsidy of over 1.5 million for yeilding a 27% voter turnout?

Awaiting the spinning from the Warren Kinsella tag team to attack Harper and his party.

The deadline is here and the numbers will clearly show what they have been hiding regarding 2008. They have already started spinning a wonderful tale for 2009 how Rosy everything is going at Liberal HQ. (Until verified in public documents, it means very little)

Are they replacing the laid off staff, paying off the leadership debts, paying down the campaign debts?

"Rossi said, party membership has swelled from about 40,000 at the outset of the year to 90,000 today on the way to a goal of 100,000 members by Labour Day."

It's better news than the bleak set of figures the Liberals are due to file to Elections Canada today.

The new party president, Alf Apps, has said the Liberals took in only $5.9 million in 2008 – almost $1 million less than the year before.

Rossi said the 2008 report will show "relatively low fundraising, an election and therefore a lot of debt loaded on."

Better numbers are to be found in the Liberals' more recent past, Rossi argues. Everything the Liberals raise from here on in this year can be poured into the war chest for an election that could come as soon as September, he said.

[updated Tue Jun 30 10:34:57 EDT 2009]

Libs with their game face on:

http://thestar.blogs.com/politics/2009/06/-more-from-rocco-rossi.html
More from Rocco Rossi
Today's story in the Star is a very short summary of what the Liberals' national director, Rocco Rossi, told me and a smattering of other journalists yesterday. Rossi, called "Ottawa Bob" in today's National Post editorial for trying to spin in the tradition of "Baghdad Bob," was obviously trying to send one message with yesterday's calls --- things are looking up. About $1.8-million was raised in the first three months of this year; another $3-million through April to June.

Here's a bit more of what Rossi had to say:

On why the fundraising is going better post-Dion:

"The new leader is enormous, not just because of traction at events and people wanting to support, but also is the seriousness with which he’s taken the mechanics of the party to heart.

You have a guy who understands that in the 21st century, with relatively low political limits, we need to build out a robust membership, that’s involved on an ongoing basis, not just to volunteer and to provide input and to provide sign locations, but also to assist in fundraising. And so you saw him take a personal position on the one-member one vote at the convention, despite the fact it had been turned down in Montreal just two years before because he feels we need that energized membership base and you’re going to convince people that membership counts if you count every member. And so that was one piece of it.

The other thing is he makes himself available tirelessly to go from coast to coast to coast for events around membership, around fundraising and that energy has translated well and we’ve also got a renewed, refreshed team around fundraising and membership and we’ve added some technology tools that have assisted as well. You take that as a package and it’s been going well, but again, we still have to work to do."

Q: Did the Conservatives' negative ads have an effect?

"What I can say is that it’s clearly a big motivator in the kind of uptick that we got in the second quarter versus the first quarter."

Q: What else is being done about a possible election in September?

"We’re rolling out online training for the 308 ridings ...As the candidates are nominated, their teams will be trained to be sure that they have the absolute best tools we can provide them with."

"There’s clearly a goal as stated by Senator (David) Smith, to have all nomination meetings, or the bulk of nomination meetings, at least called if not completed by the time the House returns in September. So there’s a very very large push on all fronts."

[updated Tue Jun 30 11:34:05 EDT 2009]

Another way the Tories cheat, lie and steal:
(or back to the future of george bush economics)
http://www.thestar.com/comment/article/658544

Flaherty is clearly keen to see yet another high-powered think-tank churning out material supporting tax cuts, smaller government, deregulation, privatization – the business-favoured agenda that's shaped economic policies for the past few decades and led to a dramatic rise in inequality.

Given the extent of the economic crisis that's happened under this agenda, one would hope Ottawa would be rethinking its faithful adherence. And in their public posture and apparent support for government stimulus spending, the Harperites have tried to present themselves as open to new approaches.

Don't be fooled. When it comes to stimulating the economy, Flaherty is already tapping his foot impatiently at the exit. And, as his letter in support of the new think-tank suggests, what he really wants isn't fresh economic ideas, but lots of Bay Street money to help him flog the ghastly old ones.

[updated Wed Jul 01 04:12:16 EDT 2009]

More of the cons and their small minded and mean approach to foreign policy:
http://embassymag.ca/page/view/diplomatic_language-7-1-2009

"This lack of diplomatic leadership, Mr. Job added, has left Canada with a foreign policy of a much narrower scope.

"The Conservatives as a government have a quite different notion of what a foreign policy agenda should be, and it certainly is not one of proactive leadership at international level," he said. "It's much more reactive, selective, I would say a much smaller foreign policy. Human security was a broad agenda about looking for opportunities to be innovative, and that's not the modality of the current Conservative government."

Mr. Pace from the World Federalist Movement said he found it quite "ironic" that Canada, under the Harper government, turned its back on the human security paradigm just as it was being accepted by more governments and civil society groups around the world.

"Even if Canada abandons it, it's now firmly implanted and there's tremendous support amongst civil society in small and middle power democracies," he said. "Canada was being viewed as much more of a leader in progressive international politics than it is now, and in the last several years it is seen more as looking inward, more dealing with economic issues, and protecting its relationships with the U.S."

[updated Wed Jul 01 21:28:44 EDT 2009]

Canada.

I hope everyone who celebrated Canada Day today got to appreciate this country in their own way. I also hope those who just took the day off paused for at least a moment to reflect on their personal good fortune and that of their families.

To my mind, we are extremely privileged to live in this nation -- I won't toot Canada's horn. You all know how Canada is a great place to live in.

However, I have to confess that I'm not your typical Canadian. I love Canada but at the same time hate nationalism! I can't stand Canadian or Quebec nationalism. Whenever either starts going over the top, rhetorically speaking, my mind is cast back to the worst examples of nationalism. In the final analysis, fervent nationalism is another example of wedge politics that has been honed into an art. It divides people, breeds intolerance and can often lead to hate. Perhaps I'm nothing more than a naive humanist.

And while I'm pissing people off, another thing that makes me cringe is the soft soap line "Canada is the best country in the world." That may be so or perhaps not. But hey, shouldn't that be for people who are not Canadians to decide? It doesn't sound credible when it comes right out of our own mouths.

Happy Canada Day Everyone!

[updated Wed Jul 01 22:24:13 EDT 2009]

C O N F I D E N C E ...

I enjoyed reading Preston Manning's excellent piece in The Globe and Mail. I don't want to take it apart piece by piece but I do want to address the question of "Government Confidence".

As a non-expert who stands ready to be corrected, I'm thinking of three types: economic statements such as Throne Speeches or Budgets; money bills otherwise known as legislation dealing with supply or other funding measures; and last but not least, any other bill that the government itself deems to be a matter of confidence.

I think we have to get away from such broad categories. I'm hoping for reforms that would narrow the parameters to the greatest extent possible. That would help to end much of the useless posturing and divisive acrimony on all sides of the House.

And our democracy would become healthier. As my late father used to say, every legislative day in the calendar shouldn't necessarily be one where you would have to either shit or get off the pot! (I miss my Dad.)

[updated Wed Jul 01 23:11:32 EDT 2009]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/good-news-ignatieff-sees-downtown-eastside-as-national-problem/article1203706/

"It's probably unfair to expect a new federal leader to be completely versed in the country's every problem. And to have instant, imaginative solutions for them. But Mr. Ignatieff will soon have to do better than suggesting ideas that have already been tried or are empty bromides.

Having said that, Mr. Ignatieff is at least making the right sounds about a host of challenges facing the country today, such as how we morph from a nation of innovation laggards to one that prizes new ideas. He gets the need to invest heavily in research and development and “bet on the longhairs, the dreamers, the guys who say, ‘I don't know where this is going but …'”

He will visit China before the current Prime Minister does. He understands how important the Asia-Pacific is to our future.

“The world owes Canada nothing, actually,” Mr. Ignatieff said. “We've got to be the best at what we do in the world, and the only way we can be is if we're the best educated.”

[updated Thu Jul 02 09:47:54 EDT 2009]

EKOS has Libs back on top confirming Nik's poll last week;
http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCATRE5613Q120090702
A weekly Ekos survey for the Canadian Broadcasting Corp put the Liberals at 32.2 percent, down from 32.6 percent last week. The Conservatives dropped to 31.0 percent from 34.8 percent while the left-leaning New Democratic Party was at 16.2 percent, up from 14.3 percent.

[updated Thu Jul 02 12:42:31 EDT 2009]

Dirty Tory stuff...the gift that keeps on giving to the next election campaign.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/manitoba/story/2009/07/02/mb-ignatieff-toews-ukrainians-manitoba.html

Manitoba Conservative MP Vic Toews has confirmed he authorized a newsletter last month that slammed Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff for comments he made about Ukrainians more than a decade ago.

The newsletter highlights comments Ignatieff wrote in his 1993 book Blood and Belonging, a meditation on the positive and negative manifestations of nationalism. It quotes Ignatieff as saying Ukrainian independence reminds him of phony Cossacks, whining instruments and nasty anti-Semites.

Ignatieff said at a luncheon at the Canadian Club of Winnipeg Thursday he was writing about stereotypes that existed at the time, and he respects and honours Ukrainian people for their role in building Canada.
.................................................

TORY TIMES ARE DIRTY TIMES
TORY TIMES ARE TOUGH TIMES

[updated Thu Jul 02 18:11:03 EDT 2009]

Its now General Harpo to all of you and the dictator wants you to stand and salute him:
http://thestar.blogs.com/politics/2009/07/at-ease-canadians.html
"Early into his first term as Prime Minister, Stephen Harper mused aloud about how he wished Canadian reporters would stand when he entered the room. I believe the collective reply to this musing had something to do with weather forecasts and the temperature in hell.

But yesterday, on Canada Day, Global TV news showed us how Harper managed to get the military to give him a salute that’s normally reserved for the Governor-General. As Heritage Minister James Moore explains in the video, this was something that the Prime Minister apparently wanted.

So if you do run across our Tim Horton’s, hockey-dad, regular-guy PM this summer on the barbecue circuit, give him a little salute. Or stand up, or something. He really seems to appreciate deference."

[updated Thu Jul 02 20:16:29 EDT 2009]

I think Harper is losing his mind. This is the sleeziest thing I have ever seen and at taxpayers expense. This guy just has to go. What a disgrace.

Daniel Leblanc

Ottawa — From Friday's Globe and Mail Last updated on Thursday, Jul. 02, 2009 07:22PM EDT

A pervert in a plaid shirt is luring a child in a park, but the Bloc Québécois will not do anything to stop him, the Conservative Party says in a new round of attack ads.

The message, which was sent at taxpayers' expense in every single Bloc riding, features a blurry picture of a small boy leaving a park with an older man. The two are walking hand-in-hand, and a nearby kiddy swing is empty.

“Your Bloc MP has voted against the protection of children,” the tag line states.

New leader, new CPC, before the party tanks. Please, please, please.

[updated Thu Jul 02 21:47:52 EDT 2009]