Given the chance, I think many Canadians would welcome the opportunity to give their elected representatives a political spanking.
Whether it’s the advertising and sponsorship scandal under the federal Liberals, the Elections Canada investigation into Conservative election expenses or a host of other political shenanigans, the overall impact of these goings on is to make the Canadians “change the channel” away from Canada’s national political scene.
And why not?
It cannot be surprising that voters are turned off by the personal tone of the attacks and counter-attacks. All this nastiness is laying the groundwork for what is likely to be a particularly acrimonious atmosphere in the House of Common this Fall. Although the cut and thrust of our political system is a given, when the line is crossed and our national political discourse becomes little more than a series of schoolyard-like barbs, we are all diminished.
The inflammatory happenings this week in the House of Commons Committee looking into Conservative elections expenses are a case in point. The focus is on raw political advantage.
When Canadians are asked about what’s important to them, they say that it’s healthcare, the economy, the environment and the war in Afghanistan. The Bernier resignation, Cadman affair or the Elections Canada investigation might be fodder for the media and the source of some dark humour around the water cooler. But according to the Nanos Research – Sun Media polling none of those issues rank as even remotely important to the day-to-day lives of Canadians.
While Canadians worry about their jobs, the economy and the environment many federal politicians are playing “gotcha politics”. Even Stephane Dion’s attempt to focus on the environment as an issue has largely been side-swiped.
Although the United States is not a perfect democracy (no democracy is perfect), it will be interesting to see if the nature of the political dialogue down south will have an influence on the tone in Canada.
What is emerging in the US is what could be viewed as the battle of the feel-good positive message of Barack Obama against the hard-nosed, hot button McCain Republican campaign?
Obama’s now famous “Yes we can” slogan is the mantra of a new approach trying to appeal to voters who have been turned off by high-octane political partisanship.
The big question remains, “What will be the impact, if any, of the American presidential race on the Canadian federal political scene?”.
In the current mindset of many Canadian political observers, a Barack Obama victory would bode well for the federal Liberals while a John McCain victory would be positive news for the federal Conservatives. In this world, the election calculus tips in the favour of one Canadian party based on the US results and the party with the advantage will want to trigger a Canadian election.
It will be interesting to watch how both the Republican and the Democrat mix their positive messages and the harder-hitting attacks.
The tone of US political dialogue and how it is used by the winner will likely have a greater impact on the Canadian political scene than the potential new US policy on terrorism or offshore drilling.
In that sense, the US presidential election maybe the antidote that Canadian politicians need to break the cycle of “gotcha politics” and to focus on the issues Canadians care about.
What do you think?
Cheers,
NJN
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Hi Nik, I've been saying for an eternity that McCain will win in a close elec... more
RonaldODowd (Ontario) 18 Aug 06:49
Nik as always your comments about the political situation in Canada, and what is... more
Jan from Whitby (Ontario) 18 Aug 08:01
Nik: As always, your post is once again thought-provoking. I think the federa... more
Gordo05 (Newfoundland and Labrador) 18 Aug 09:02
larryl - What "real democratic government" are you referring to? The theft of $1... more
MRM (Manitoba) 19 Aug 08:25
Not really. First off - it didn't cost 'us' anything, as in taxpayers. It actual... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 19 Aug 16:15
I said it was a broken promise. And no - they didn't lose billions. That's a b... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 19 Aug 16:50
Comments
RonaldODowd
Hi Nik,
I've been saying for an eternity that McCain will win in a close election. Sexism was subtly responsible for Hillary's demise while subtle racism will lead to Barack's underdoing, IMHO.
How will that translate in Canada? As a Conservative, I have to give Harper the edge should we go into an election -- the imcumbent government will go into a campaign that is Harper's to lose. If Harper does not make any major mistakes, we could squeak by with another minority mandate.
Dion's immense challenge is to convince the electorate that he is the agent of change. The dynamic of any election campaign is always one of change, to some extent. Dion has to roll the dice and hope that his burning themes catch on. If they do, he will form a minority government.
It will be close but the smart money is on Harper -- for the moment!
[updated Mon Aug 18 06:49:17 EDT 2008]
18 Aug 06:49
55 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Jan from Whitby
Nik as always your comments about the political situation in Canada, and what is happening in the USA are as a rule as close to the facts as one can get.There is no question that the outcome of the Presidential Election in the US will have aprofound effect on the results in Canada.
The way it is in Canada at the present is highly unsatisfactory,but most of the dissatisfaction and turmoil is driven by the Opposition, mainly the Liberals, for the simple fact that they cannot stomach the loss of their privileges in the last election. That is not to say that all is well with a Conservative Govt. By no means, too many turns and twists are made to compromise what should be a straight forward honest governing.
[updated Mon Aug 18 08:01:20 EDT 2008]
18 Aug 08:01
34 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Regina Beach Boy
""The way it is in Canada at the present is highly unsatisfactory,but most of the dissatisfaction and turmoil is driven by the Opposition, mainly the Liberals, for the simple fact that they cannot stomach the loss of their privileges in the last election.""
Jan, you hit it out of the park with that statemant, thats exactly what is paralyzing Parliament, the Committees, and the Senate.
The Liberal led opposition has the seemingly unconditional support of the NDP and the Bloc in whatever parisan moves they want to make these committees, the biggest surprise of all is that they would join in as equal partners in the partisan mayhem.
Politics first, the country second.
[updated Mon Aug 18 11:53:34 EDT 2008]
18 Aug 11:53
Foxer
I think that's the curse of a minority gov't Beach Boy. Martin spent so much time looking at polls and over his shoulder for a possible election that they called him mr dithers. Dion flip flops regularly based on what he thinks the public is looking for right now, with more 'bluff charges' than a young bear who's afraid someone's going to beat him up.
Harper is only marginally better - he's holding back on new policies and tackling the issues because he doesn't want to 'tip his hand' before there's a new election.
Bottom line is what we really need in canada is a majority gov't. That way the party in charge can actually get things done without having to look over it's shoulder for an election every week.
[updated Tue Aug 19 13:11:48 EDT 2008]
19 Aug 13:11
Regina Beach Boy
Foxer, I beleive your are 100% correct on all accounts, there are many out there that say a minority keeps the governing party honest and in check, not so, minority governments cause all parties to remain in a state of perpetual election readiness and campagining mode which guarantees thier focus will not be on the countries best intrests.
Being in this state of competing news releases, announcements, constant criticism of one another and basically the never-ending hunt for dirt from the other party is exactly why Parliament, the committees and the Senate can no longer function.
We didn't have this problem in the last Liberal majority or numerous other minority governments of the past, the reason for this? See Jan's comments above.
[updated Tue Aug 19 13:50:50 EDT 2008]
19 Aug 13:50
Foxer
I think jan raises some interesting and valid points, there's no doubt.
I tend to disagree tho that we 'didn't have this last minority'. I would personally argue we did, we just had the 'flip' side of it. Martin tried to run his agenda based mostly on polls, public opinion and optics. That's what earned him the name 'mr dithers'. Our fiscal policy became unfocused and wasteful, our social policy was all over the map and ineffective, our leadership was rudderless - all because martin was focused on looking good for the next election and scoring political points.
Harper is the opposite - he did push his agenda thru and did well, but now he's hesitating to release a NEW agenda and move the country forward. And the liberals are entirely focused on trying to find SOMETHING to try to make the CPC look as dirty as they were, and that's where they're spending ALL their energy. Sparing only enough for a 'green' tax that will be a fiscal disaster for our country because they think it'll hit on two key election issues - the environment and social programs. It's a nightmare plan, conceived to look good, not to move the country forward. Chretien would never have proposed this nightmare.
We need an end to minorities. We need a majority. Canada needs to focus on Canada for a while, not the next election.
[updated Tue Aug 19 15:11:03 EDT 2008]
19 Aug 15:11
Regina Beach Boy
""We need an end to minorities. We need a majority. Canada needs to focus on Canada for a while, not the next election. ""
I agree, regardless of who it is we need a focused effort from a governing party, I would just like to see what the Conservatives can accomplish without having to be so political as they have to be right now.
They deserve a chance as much as the Liberals do right now, guess we'll see.
[updated Tue Aug 19 15:39:00 EDT 2008]
19 Aug 15:39
Foxer
Yeah. From a practical point of view - it'll be the Conservatives or no one. The liberals are considerably farther away than the cpc - the cpc will have to pick up 4 to 6 points to have a solid shot at one - the libs will need to pick up 10 to 12. 4 to 6 is hard - 10 points is almost impossible.
It would take a minor miricle for dion to win even a small minority gov't. There's virtually no chance of them taking a majority. Unless something absolutely horrible happens like harper is caught actually eating a baby, the best the libs can hope for is a very weak minority.
So if we get a majority, it'll be cpc. Or we'll be stuck more or less where we are now.
[updated Tue Aug 19 15:47:16 EDT 2008]
19 Aug 15:47
Regina Beach Boy
""Unless something absolutely horrible happens like harper is caught actually eating a baby""
Foxer, Please, the Libs will use anything, lol.
Talk to you again some time
[updated Tue Aug 19 15:58:34 EDT 2008]
19 Aug 15:58
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Last two polls out show the LIbs slightly ahead so how can you make up numbers like that......what a joke!!!
Harper is running very hard now because he sees the polls...devastation awaits him in Ontario and he's faded badly in Quebec. So much so he promised a billion dollar bridge to day in quebec to try and win one riding.
Leave disney land and join the real world
[updated Tue Aug 19 20:28:58 EDT 2008]
19 Aug 20:28
Foxer
No - the last two polls don't show the liberals slightly ahead. The harris decima poll showed a statistical tie, and they are notorious for showing the libs higher and the cpc lower than any other polling firm even when the polls are taken at the same time. Other polls taken that same month show that the parties were around about the usual 36 - 30 score, and internal polling released today (the star had a story about it) suggests about the same.
More interestingly tho - there is a large undecided vote, and the issue that is now at the top of everyone's list of importance is the economy. And more and more we're seeing harper score higher than dion as the best person to run the economy.
Will that be enough to get him the 6 points or so he'll need to get a majority? Hard to say. But - it's very very hard for dion to go up TEN points when his party is not percieved as being good economic stewards during a soft economy.
It is techincally possible for dion to take a minority gov't, although unlikely, but unless there is a massive massive event there is no chance of him taking a majority. Even the liberals know that.
[updated Tue Aug 19 21:31:13 EDT 2008]
19 Aug 21:31
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
BS there isn't one current poll showing the Tories/reform ahead. you can't find one I bet. The word is CURRENT.
[updated Tue Aug 19 21:38:27 EDT 2008]
19 Aug 21:38
Foxer
Sigh - you really do make it too easy.
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4040
is august 19th "current enough" for you?
Tories (36%) Continue To Lead Grits (30%) Nationally, Only Trail Grits By 2 Points In Ontario, Bloc By 9 Points In Quebec
[updated Tue Aug 19 22:06:31 EDT 2008]
19 Aug 22:06
Foxer
oh - and another one taken about 10 days ago:
http://tinyurl.com/6yqoja
Five-Point Lead for Conservatives in Canada
Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Conservative party is holding on to the lead in Canada, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 35 per cent of respondents would support the Tories in the next federal election, while 30 per cent would vote for the opposition Liberal party.
Well. I guess that kind of shows which of us is the more informed of the two :)
[updated Tue Aug 19 22:13:54 EDT 2008]
19 Aug 22:13
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
BTW a review of Nik's polls this calendar year show the Libs and reform tied or with in one percent of each other. Being as we all agree he is the most accurate pollster I would suggest your attempt at one upmanship is useless.
[updated Fri Aug 22 18:12:45 EDT 2008]
22 Aug 18:12
Foxer
Oh my god, you are HILARIOUS! :) Seriously, i'm almost feeling guilty for not paying for your show :)
All your whining and crying about polls not counting unless their fresh like a little boy who doesn't want to go to bed .... and you come up with THAT line? :)
I can imagine you really hate the fact there's no delete button for these posts - it must irk you to no end that people will be able to read this, and think less of liberal supporters as a result of your own clumsiness. Heh!
Hey - you asked for polls. You were SURE they didn't exist. You were wrong.
As you are wrong about a great number of things.
It's really very simple. The core support for the CPC is about 36 percent of the population. The core support for dion is about 30. The 'loyalty' so to speak of dion's support seems slightly weaker than Harpers core.
That's the way it is. Accept it and move on, and you'll wind up spending less time looking like a fool who doesn't know what he's talking about.
Now - if you want to argue whether or not dion has a plan up his sleeve that will bring voters to him, that's fine. We haven't seen it, but maybe he does. Or - if you want to discuss the possibility that Harper will be able to attract the 5 or 6 percent HE needs to get a majority - we can talk about that too. Seems more likely but who knows.
Or maybe you'd like to discuss how the election will result in the same gov't we have now, more or less.
But arguing that dion is moving up, or that harper is falling behind, is just nuts. Next time - educate yourself a little before speaking.
Dion's green shift has fizzled. If anything it may hurt him. So - the only question at this point is has he got something else up his sleeve that's gonna really 'wow' people, and of course the flip side of that question is 'does harper'.
Right now your boy is sinking. I know that must make you insane, but no point pretending the sun doesn't rise in the east.
But - thanks for proving how desperate some of his supporters are :) Always good to see.
[updated Fri Aug 22 19:09:57 EDT 2008]
22 Aug 19:09
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Your logic is as perverse as you think mine is. I have one guiding issue in that I expect my govvernment to act ethically and to honor all of Canada and all Canadians. Harper has failed miserably at both and therefore needs to be purged.
I love your sense of ego however...a real tory who can do no wrong nor see any evil except in the movies.
[updated Fri Aug 22 19:18:29 EDT 2008]
22 Aug 19:18
Foxer
ROFL - you have no guiding issue in the slightest! And if you DID believe in 'ethics above all', the liberals are the LAST party you'd vote for :)
Heck, you've proven here already you don't have any interest in the truth OR ethics - look at your erroneous statements and how often the facts don't back you up! With only a tiny bit of effort i've had no problems proving you wrong and your information inaccurate.
And i'm not even trying to say the tories will win! I'm just saying things favour them right at the moment. So you're losing, and not even to a 'die hard tory supporter' - just a guy who's pointing out where things stand today!
It's like watching urkle pick a fight with someone - you just come across as goofy :) And as for evil, I have no trouble seeing evil. Fortunately it's about 6 points behind the tories in the polls and sinking fast if it's supporters are any indication :)
I realize the truth must sting right now - but wouldn't you rather be honest with yourself than keep up this facade? Or are you one of those types who believes in denying everything for as long as possible, regardless of the evidence? If you start saying "there are no Americans in bagdad' I'm going to get very concerned about you :D
[updated Fri Aug 22 19:37:58 EDT 2008]
22 Aug 19:37
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Correcting my slight errors does not make me a liar or briber. I post often from memory and the facts seem right at the time.
Your so called review that things favour the tories is obviously totally false.Read O'dowd's post. He is a tory and has it right.Harper is so desperate to avoid the looming scandals he is going to break hi s own law and call an election. Dion has wind in his sails and contrary to your "esteemed" position is definitely on the move up.
But have fun with your illusions.
[updated Sat Aug 23 21:57:00 EDT 2008]
23 Aug 21:57
Foxer
Slight errors :) one or two are 'slight errors' maybe, but methinks you're beyond that just a hair. When you make numerous factually inaccurate statements attempting to support your claim, that's more than just a simple error. Being a hair off on your figures is understandable, but when you make firm statements like 'bs, there isn't such a poll' without knowing - then that's a little more.
But you're quite right about the bribery - to my knowledge you've never done that.
For gods sake man - every single source of information shows the so called 'scandals' are a NON ISSUE. Niks' own info show it - the numerous polls showing the cpc right where they've always been shows it, the papers know it, EVERYONE knows it.
You might as well go on about how jupiter's aligning with mars and THAT will make the tories lose. Makes about as much sense.
Everyone knows why harper wants to go now - the green plan is a disaster and he thinks he can kick dion's butt with it.
And absolutely nothing anywhere points to a rise for dion. If anything he's losing ground in the atlantics, and is losing or barely holding most everywhere else.
Barring a miricle, he's going to lose. That's the way it is. A lot of party insiders have suggested thats why they've been pushing him for an election - get it over with and pick a new leader that might win. The question is how bad is he going to lose. Will harper get a majority (or something very close) or will we be back to where we were before, and basically rewind the clock to 2006.
[updated Sat Aug 23 23:39:46 EDT 2008]
23 Aug 23:39
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Keep those wet dreams alive Foxer. I don't know what drugs you take but moderate them please. Harper cannot drive a trck through the green shift plan. He has been running ads around here all summer with his low ball attacks on Dion along the green shift and his numbers are not moving. The commons ethics committee is only starting to make noise in the newspapers. Remember adscam wasn't making much headline news until Martin foolishly made it a front line issue with his commission of the Gomery inquiry.
The Liberals have lots of front page stuff now for an election campaign which people like you only seem to read. The tories are on the defensive over the environment and this is starting to show up in Quebec where separation politics no longer are a real factor. Ontario has a real chance of giving the Libs over 75 seats there. Its been done in the past and the votes are there for harvesting this time around.
[updated Sun Aug 24 05:12:55 EDT 2008]
24 Aug 05:12
Foxer
Harper doesn't need to drive a 'trck' (whatever that is) through the green plan. Everyone else is doing that for him. The provinces are coming out against it, business associations are, heck FOUR (or is it five?) of dion's candidates have given up and NOBODY wants to pay new taxes. Dion managed to do it himself.
And the committee has been news in the papers for months now. And the whole in-and-out thing has been in the papers for about a year. NOBODY CARES.
Adscam hit the papers like a tidal wave! When the auditor general released her report it was like an explosion - people were INSTANTLY furious. People wanted the heads of the liberals the MOMENT it happened - paul martin called the inquiry to try to calm people down. It didn't work.
And that's because the liberals were as corrupt as sin and had obviously done something criminal, and stolen tens of millions (if not hundreds) of the taxpayers money. That's OUR money!
Nothing even close to that happened here.
The only thing the liberals have put forward lately is their new tax, the suggestion of trade wars, and of course the fact that they're losing candidates almost as fast as they're putting them on.
There is no chance even by the most optimistic polls that ontario will give the libs 75 seats. About the best they can hope for right now is that they won't lose any.
And it's typical of you that you present no facts whatsoever, no information to back up your rather wild claims, and your entire premise is based on what you hope will happen, not on any kind of rational thinking or logic.
If dion's doing so great - where's HIS numbers increase? The recent polls put him tied in ontario with harper - where are these 75 seats going to come from?
[updated Sun Aug 24 10:09:18 EDT 2008]
24 Aug 10:09
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Show us, old wise one, where the Tories are tied with the Libs in Ontario. Since I'm "always" wrong I'll wait for your seasoned answer.
As for the scandals just wait for the explosion. It will happen after the writ is dropped. Dirty politics begets more dirty politics.
You know full well that Harper is intent on NOT letting that money laundering story get full play until after an election and if he wins it will get buried so deep in Ottawa you won't be able to find it until the court case is heard. That strategy is well defined by his current actions. your comment that he feels Dion is weak on green shift is perfect for the Libs who are not hearing that themselves from the left side of the spectrum. You can believe all the fairy tales you want about Lib candidates dropping out but in at least two, and very probably more, cases they left for legitimate personal reasons other than policy issues with the party.
[updated Sun Aug 24 11:11:32 EDT 2008]
24 Aug 11:11
Foxer
For heaven's sake TPQ - i've already posted polls for you that are from august that say exactly that.
As to the scandals - I HAVE been waiting for the explosion - for close to a year now.
It isn't going to happen - none of them are 'new' news - this stuff has been around for ages. Nik himself posts that it's just not an issue for people.
Here's a hint - an explosion happens when you put a match to something - not a year AFTER you put a match to it. The closest thing to an 'explosion' we had was the Maxime issue, and that's pretty much died out.
Harper doesn't care about the in and out thing. Nobody does. Aside from a few people like yourself who want to pretend it's something it wasn't because of partisan feelings, it's a dead issue. Only a completely bias person or an idiot would think of it as 'money laundering' - it simply isn't.
the previous liberal gov'ts set the 'bar' very high on scandals. Compared to what they did, this stuff is just not even worth mentioning. The public doesn't care.
LOL - and if you believe that the candidates left right now due to 'personal reasons', you're living in a dream world.
The party is divided. Many libs have said they are not comfortable with the idea of the Green Shift, and many know that they're in trouble in their ridings.
Most seem resigned to the fact dion will lose - they just want to get it over with and pick a new leader and hopefully keep harper to a minority. Then try again in a year or two with a better leader and hopefully revived party.
People don't want a tax and spend gov't right now. It was a terrible platform to put forward, and harper believes he can defeat dion on that platform enough to win a majority. He may well be right - it will depend on the campaigns.
[updated Sun Aug 24 12:41:28 EDT 2008]
24 Aug 12:41
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Keep on trying with your ignorance and BS. I just proved you know nothing of actual happenings in the Liberal party. I know exactly why those candidates left and you are simply speculating just as I thought.
You are a true Harperite...liar, and ethically bankrupt.
[updated Sun Aug 24 22:48:16 EDT 2008]
24 Aug 22:48
Foxer
hehehehe - because you say so without any evidence, proof, or even rational thought :)
The rats are fleeing the ship. And we've all seen how often the 'facts' you post turn out in fact to be completely false.
You will say anything, do anything, go to any length to try to convince someone that dion has even the slightest chance.
Fortunately, i have truth and facts on my side, and you don't as i've shown dozens of times already.
Dion will lose, he will be replaced, and the liberals will be in financial trouble. the question is how badly will he lose, and how much trouble will they be in?
If you're an example - I'd say they're going to lose pretty bad :)
[updated Mon Aug 25 01:42:51 EDT 2008]
25 Aug 01:42
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
You live your moment of truth and I will live mine. The real facts are that harper is running scared because his numbers are weak and the scandals are starting to creep up on him. His obfuscation efforts are running out of time and the election call will be the ongoing cover up. Your comments that these scandals don't weigh are patently false.
McGuinty is working to help defeat him in Ontario and for whatever reason he is very popular there and carries a lot of weight. The green shift has not hurt Dion and has made him the leader in new and fresh ideas for the coming election. Harper and Flaherty cannot bribe us with more tax cuts.
Even the NDP is quietly supporting a dump Harper move as opposed to trying to replace the Liberals in their fantasyland world.
The election will be too close to call but Dion has a better than even chance of winning becasue he just keeps coming on and people will see him for what he is.......smart, intelligent and a winner.. .
[updated Mon Aug 25 05:08:03 EDT 2008]
25 Aug 05:08
Foxer
If harper is scared - why do i see dion in the paper pleading with him to change his mind and not call an election? When you're scared, you avoid an election. Like paul martin did - like dion has for the last 2 years. You don't charge into one.
And nobody cares about the so called 'scandals' - but it's not MY word on that, read nik's own comments above! He clearly states the same thing! And the polling numbers tend to back him up! So - the polls don't support you, nik thinks you're entirely wrong, and i've explained why. Ya think maybe you got this one wrong? :) I think so.
Mcguinty is indeed against harper but he's got to walk a very fine line - he knows that harper is likely to win, and he knows he'll be going back to harper for more favours if he does. Can't piss the man off too bad :) He was all smiles standing beside harper a month ago when they got that funding for new roads and infrastructure.
The green shift HAS hurt dion, but so far only a little. The problem is - he was counting on that to be his election plank - and people HATE the plan. It makes no sense - its a disaster economically, and people don't like tax-and-spend gov'ts. So Dion has realized the same thing harper has - if he fights an election on it - he's going to get murdered.
And there's nothing fresh or new about tax-and-spend gov'ts.
Oh - and it's not a 'bribe' when you let people keep their own money. It's a bribe when you give them someone ELSE'S money - kinda like the green plan does. Take from the middle class and business - give to social spending and 'research firms' picked by the libs.
The NDP has hardly been quiet - Unlike dion they've shown up at all the confidence votes and voted! Layton thinks he can convince people that because Dion has been running scared and not showing up for work, the NDP would make a better opposition party. They at least DO something. He may be right.
Dion has virtually no chance of winning if we go to the polls in the near future. The green plan will sink him and he knows it.
That's why he's out there begging harper to reconsider right now. And that's why harper is pressuring him like hell to go.
It's bad luck the libs picked a leader with no spine, no vision, and no feel for politics. But he's getting whupped, and if he goes to the polls now he's going to get his butt kicked. And he knows it, and he's trying everything to avoid it now.
If dion was truly not petrified - he'd be telling harper to go ahead and call the election. Instead of begging for his political life.
[updated Mon Aug 25 11:46:12 EDT 2008]
25 Aug 11:46
Mike
Harper will lose the next election, and will fade into the Alberta landscape until he is called to appear at his own trial
[updated Sun Aug 24 09:30:09 EDT 2008]
24 Aug 09:30
Foxer
Well there's logic. What do you base that on? He's ahead of dion by 6 - 7 points in the polls, and dion's running on a tax increase and trade wars.
Or is the liberal stratagy to simply try to repeat nonsense again and again in the vain hopes that somehow it'll become true?
The information seems to suggest very strongly that dion will be doing very well to hold harper to another minority - and considering he seems happy to let harper do whatever he wants anyway that's really not much of a victory.
[updated Sun Aug 24 10:13:37 EDT 2008]
24 Aug 10:13
Mike
There you go again with the conservative spin; Dion is running on an environement platform, shifting taxes from revenue base to consumer base. This tax base is a proven recipe to combat our dependency on fossil fuels in the rest of the world except of course in Bush country. The liberal platform his compares very nicely to the trash and burn style Harper has been practicing.
How many full time bloggers do the conservative have on their payroll?
[updated Sun Aug 24 12:32:11 EDT 2008]
24 Aug 12:32
Foxer
It is not conservative spin to state simple facts - as we see the data today the indications are that the cpc will win the election. Dion IS in fact proposing a new tax. Most people will wind up paying more in taxes and cost of goods. That's a tax. I have no doubt he intends to spend the money - that's what gov'ts do with tax money, they spend it.
And liberal mp's themselves have called it a 'wealth shift' - it's not like that's my term or anything.
As to it being 'proven' - not only has it not been proven, but dion is unable to come up with even an estimate of how much it will reduce carbon output.
Can you show me where it's been 'proven' in the past? Or explain why dion can't come up with a target for the plan?
The CPC has no need to 'pay bloggers' - honesty and truth tend to speak for themselves. But it's amusing you would think of it.. they say a fox smells his own scent first - are you perhaps getting some remuneration from the libs? Perhaps they've done you a favor or something - have you noticed any brown envelopes full of money at any of the restaurants you've been to of late?
[updated Sun Aug 24 13:01:14 EDT 2008]
24 Aug 13:01
Mike
Between 1990 and 2006 Sweden cut its carbon emissions by 9%, largely exceeding the target set by the Kyoto Protocol, while enjoying economic growth of 44% in fixed prices. The main reason for this success, say experts, is the introduction of a carbon tax in 1991. Swedes today pay an extra 2.34 kronor (20p) per litre when they fill the tank (although many key industries receive tax relief or are exempted). "Our carbon emissions would have been 20% higher without the carbon tax," says the Swedish environment minister, Andreas Carlgren.
Many more examples if you care to look. How does that compare with Harper/Baird/Ambrose results?
[updated Sun Aug 24 14:20:40 EDT 2008]
24 Aug 14:20
Foxer
Sweden did a lot more than 'carbon taxes'.
First off - their carbon reduction plans started slowly back in the early 90's. It happened very gradually over a long time, giving people a chance to adapt while offering new technologies to replace existing methods.
Secondly - they introduced carbon taxes at a time when gas and energy was very low. In the 90's in canada for example gas was as low as 35 cents a litre. Conversely, our energy costs are very high right now. You can influence people's behavior if something is cheap and you make it more expensive - but if it's ALREADY expensive then raising the price doesn't have the same effect. Anybody who can afford to move away from fuel is already doing so - so raising the price doesn't help much.
You can see this in america. No carbon tax, but rising prices and a slower economy has already caused people to change their habits en masse. Fuel consuption is considerably lower. Sales of fuel efficient vehicles is up and gas heavy vehicles is down. Adding a carbon tax would have no benefit. You don't add a gas tax when gas is already high. Doing so cripples the economy.
Sweden also spent the tax money very differently - they gave rebates and incentives to move to high efficiency systems that used alternative fuels, like fuel pellets and biofuel. There was no tax on biofuel, so it made it easy for people to switch. Dion is just spending the money on social programs and 'technology development'. They also did carbon capture ideas etc etc.
One of the big things they did to minimize the impact of taxes on business is as they raised carbon taxes on business, they directly cut employee taxes for staff. That meant business didn't suffer at all - but they could make MORE money by going with new energy technology. They weren't penalized, they were encouraged. Dion's plan doesn't do that.
And of course sweden is the size of british columbia, and the economy is primarily services based. That means they are far less dependant on travel and shipping than Canada, the second largest country in the world.
So it's not much of a comparison to dion's 'green plan'. And considering the carbon taxes were only a tiny part of the whole plan, the 9 percent drop can't exactly be attributed to carbon tax.
Sweden is proof that if you do a wide range of things, and pump any taxes collected directly back into making it cheaper for people to switch to new technology instead of just penalizing them then you can enjoy a small reduction in emmissions without destroying the economy. But that's not the same as 'carbon taxes reduce emmissions.
They had a huge plan that was massive - it wasn't just carbon tax. Here - read their own report:
http://www.sweden.gov.se/sb/d/2023/a/54762
As to how it compares to harper's plan - let's also compare it to the liberal plan.
Under the liberal plan emmissions went up by 20 percent.
Under harper's plan, emmissions have already begun to drop. His plan calls for a hard reduction of 20 percent by 2020. To put that in perspective - the swedes reduced theirs by 9 percent in 16 years - within 14 years from when he started, harper will reduce emmisions by more than double that.
Harper has begun to take some of the swedish ideas - he increased taxes on gas guzzling vehicles - BUT also lowered ttaxes on fuel efficient vehicles.
See how that works - you make it easy for people to change. You don't need to destroy the economy at a time when energy prices are sky high. That is closer to the swedish approach.
Had the liberals started this in 1994 - things would have been different. But now - it makes no sense. And the green plan wouldn't make sense even then.
[updated Sun Aug 24 17:50:14 EDT 2008]
24 Aug 17:50
Mike
Great, the hell with the planet, the liberals did not get it done back then, let's just make sure we make as much profit as possible. You are defending a crook, Stephen Harper should be in jail. Better still he should be in a Texas jail. The guy is a crook and a wannabe dictator, and you are a fool for supporting him
[updated Sun Aug 24 18:02:18 EDT 2008]
24 Aug 18:02
Foxer
Hey - the whole point is YOU want me to believe that the guy - the SPECIFIC guy - who didn't get it done back then is the guy to get it done now!
I didn't say anything about profit - i said we're actually doing something about it now where we DID NOT before - and the plan harper has put forward is actually MORE agressive than the one you held up as an example!
Dion's plan won't do crap for the environment! Just like he didn't do crap for the environment the LAST time! I'll take harper's ACTUAL reduction over dion's PRETEND reduction (but in reality an increase) any day.
You call me a fool - but you're supporting a man who represents an ACTUALLY corrupt party and who LIED to you the first time when he said he'd deal with the environment. You know what t