CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 37, LP 26, NDP 21, BQ 9, GP 7 (ending September 23)

Definately a spike for bloc support in quebec. A mistake on harper's part to blow off the funding cuts like that. He's right of course - they DID increase funding overall - but now he looks a little callous towards the arts community.

It'll probably be short lived, but only if he comes forward with a much more positive message for quebec to repair this mistake.

Libs down again and the ndp isn't - thats still within the margin of error of course, but it's not what the libs wanted to see. They're within 5 points now.

[updated Wed Sep 24 14:15:54 EDT 2008]

Majority! Majority! Majority!

[updated Wed Sep 24 14:18:28 EDT 2008]

Interesting dion's leadership scores fell again last night. Sooner or later that's going to translate into very bad news for dion - he SHOULD have had a bump from his platform release but instead it looks like it was not well received by people at all. I think people really don't trust what he says.

That may be in part to the fact liberals have broken promises so often - but I also have to wonder if it isn't due to the vagueness and complexity of the liberal plan. It's a very complex plan that's very short on details, making it hard to understand even for people who study that kind of stuff for a living.

I think a lot of people look at that and immediately assume the politician is hiding something. Regardless of the politician.

Dion should have spelt things out much more clearly - like 'how much carbon will the green tax save'? Simple things like that are very important to people.

I think dion's problem is he's a concept guy - but really falls short on details.

[updated Wed Sep 24 14:52:12 EDT 2008]

This poll and many others appear to be holding very steady for the Conservatives and the Best PM numbers show Harper (39%) increasing his lead over Dion (11%). Not in majority territory yet but would deliver a solid minority government.

[updated Wed Sep 24 14:59:19 EDT 2008]

This is the electoral equivalent to World War II, and very unfortunately for Dion and the Liberals they find themselves playing the role of Germany, fighting a losing battle on two fronts: To the west he has hit an immovable wall in the "Commonwealth/American" Tories, and to the east where he has previously taken ground easily his army, starving on meagre campaign rations, now faces the resurgent "Soviet" NDP. (apologies to Liberal supporters/apologists who might see an inference to Hitler when I mention Dion--Dion is certainly not the equivalent to the notoriously evil Hitler, nor do I mean to imply we'd see negative consequences of that scale should Dion become PM--I very simply mean to compare the tactical situations of the war and the election campaign).

The lukewarm reaction to the Liberal platform may be the death knell. It seems not to dispel the image painted in the Tory "not worth the risk" attack ads but instead give them credibility. This week we've seen inconsistent budgetary estimates (casting doubt on the "revenue neutrality" of the "green shift" plan) as well as inconsistency in philosophy (a green shift plan that is supposed to be "tough on polluters" but is easy on "Ontario polluters" with breaks on gasoline and other carbon taxes that would impact that provinces manufacturing and transportation sectors..and now a promise to rescind income trust taxes...perhaps to bribe western voters with the biggest beef over the subject?).

Being an Albertan disgruntled with the Tories pulling a Trudeau-style turnabout on an economic policy in the trust tax grab, Dion's proposal to reverse the tax seems appealing...but being an Albertan I also view the Liberals with deep distrust--even more so than I have with Flaherty's brain trust. Trusts are a good vehicle to fund income-producing-but-depreciating assets, and making them tax free would promote the exploitation of established oil and gas fields to exhaustion, with the income being distributed to unit holders given priority over investment in new "greener" technology.

Since that aspect of an income trust tax cut seems to run counter to the "green shift" I just KNOW there has to be a big asterisk on that platform plank written in invisible ink. I suspect other trusts like REITs will benefit fully but royalty trusts will be slapped with some other punitive measure of a sort that would make Trudeau and his middle finger proud. I think many westerners have been coloured "unimpressed". The Tories "not worth the risk" attack campaign is "negative done right" and very shrewd and sharp. It won't make voters love them but it reinforces Harper's economic track record.

Canada might be struggling but we've been doing much better than the US in the past year under Harper's leadership, and without a doubt it is the US-led credit crunch and not Harper policies that sparked the downturn seen round the globe. We here see that and view a PM with an economist background and pragmatic approach as the safest, if not ideal, choice leading into potential recessionary times.

In the east "Comrade Layton" is looking pretty confident too...and he is running a surprisingly sharp campaign, notwithstanding what he..ahem..might've been smoking. Not since Broadbent ran the politburo have they sustained support in the 20s for any great time. Whether or not the NDP's policies are rooted in reality, at least they are consistent and clear and different from the government (at a time when the Liberals' elite sound rather NDPish and the Tories are increasingly harder to distinguish from disgruntled former Martinites still in the Liberal tent)--very much what voters crave at the moment. Those t-shirts with the Dion Liberal voting record...genius strategy!

With "der Führer Dion" fighting on two fronts and presenting a platform that is a bit hastily put together the Liberals are looking a bit desperate. The game is changing--a majority for the Tories is still very questionable, but now the NDP are edging towards statistical tie with Liberals. Strategic voting will not work for Dion at that point...not if voters want a minority that would REALLY keep the Tories in check.

[updated Wed Sep 24 16:24:08 EDT 2008]

Don't Harper's Wars on Terror/Crime Violate UN Conventions? Look at these:

Article 37 (rights of kids)

Parties shall ensure that:

(a) No child shall be subjected to torture or other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment. Neither capital punishment nor life imprisonment without possibility of release shall be imposed for offences committed by persons below eighteen years of age;

Now, let's not even talk about Omar Kadr, whom Mr. Harper has left twisting (and tortured) in the wind down at Gitmo. Or his age of sexual consent madness.

14 yeal olds! 15 year olds! What can this man be thinking?

I'll tell you what, he doesn't care about right and wrong. He doesn't care about facts. He's an ideological freak with a hidden agenda. To quote Mr. Harper, we won't recognize Canada when's he's done with it.

That's why ABC or ABH has to take hold, and fast.

[updated Wed Sep 24 20:07:46 EDT 2008]