Last night’s tracking showed a noticeable jump in Bloc support in Quebec coinciding with attacks on Stephen Harper’s views and comments related to culture.
Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Tories holding strong nationally at 37% support. The Liberals trail 11 points behind at 26%, followed by the NDP at 21%, the Bloc Québécois at 9% and the Green Party at 7 %. The Bloc Québécois has regained ground in Quebec, while the Conservatives and Liberals remain statistically tied in the province of Ontario. At 39%, Stephen Harper heads Canada’s choice for Prime Minister, followed by Jack Layton at 17%. Stéphane Dion drops to 11%, with Elizabeth May scoring 5% and Gilles Duceppe 3%.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 22, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,003, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 37 (-1)
- Liberal Party 26 (-1)
- NDP 21 (NC)
- BQ 9% (+1)
- Green Party 7% (+1)
- Undecided 16% (-1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 39% (+2)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 17% (-1)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 11% (-2)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (+1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
- None of them 9% (-1)
- Unsure 16% (+1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 108 (-5)
- Jack Layton 47 (+3)
- Stephane Dion 32 (-6)
- Gilles Duceppe 19 (+6)
- Elizabeth May 18 (+5)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Definately a spike for bloc support in quebec. A mistake on harper's part to blo... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 24 Sep 14:15
Majority! Majority! Majority!... more
hsingh (British Columbia) 24 Sep 14:18
Yes it is a spike for Bloc support, but according to a reporter from LaPresse mo... more
Rosebud in BC (British Columbia) 24 Sep 14:41
That's possible - i think it will generally affect them in quebec a little for ... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 24 Sep 14:45
If the Tories do have a hidden agenda - stuff they won't talk about but would do... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 24 Sep 15:23
I agree. Ridculous to be spending our tax dollars to air Wheel of Fortune and Je... more
kschell (Ontario) 24 Sep 15:29
Comments
Foxer
Definately a spike for bloc support in quebec. A mistake on harper's part to blow off the funding cuts like that. He's right of course - they DID increase funding overall - but now he looks a little callous towards the arts community.
It'll probably be short lived, but only if he comes forward with a much more positive message for quebec to repair this mistake.
Libs down again and the ndp isn't - thats still within the margin of error of course, but it's not what the libs wanted to see. They're within 5 points now.
[updated Wed Sep 24 14:15:54 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 14:15
36 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Rosebud in BC
Yes it is a spike for Bloc support, but according to a reporter from LaPresse most of this support is from Montreal. The outlying areas are still strongly Conservative. IMO it is also resonating well in the rest of Canada because of grants given to "artists" such as the group that calls themselves the "Oh F**k" (word not used by any media outlet) and another "artist" that stuck a vial of his own blood up his you know what, and contorted himself upside down and drank his own blood (see todays NP). These people do not desire our tax dollars and these are the ones whose funding has been cut. It's a pity the art community in Montreal doesn't do some research before they have a knee jerk reaction to a Conservative announcement.
[updated Wed Sep 24 14:41:06 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 14:41
Foxer
That's possible - i think it will generally affect them in quebec a little for a day or two but if they start hammering on the good they can do for quebec, then it'll bounce.
It will probably not affect them much elsewhere. I think harper was right - the average person isn't all that worried about it. His mistake was to say it the way he said it.
[updated Wed Sep 24 14:45:33 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 14:45
kschell
I think that has been one of the biggest faults of the CPC - not getting the full message out on what they are really doing. Of course the left biased media doesn't help any.
CPC are funding the arts to a level never before seen in Canada - actually restoring cuts the Liberals made! But cutting programs that are inefficient, aren't meeting their objectives, or are funding things that most Canadians would find distasteful if not down right disgusting.
I know this is in the party press releases - I have seen some of them. But go figure, the media doesn't tell that part of the story. All we get is the six second sound bites they decide to air. However, as more and more people get their news from the internet instead of the mainstream media, maybe this will change. Wishful thinking maybe.
[updated Wed Sep 24 14:51:03 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 14:51
Lex Llewdor
If the Tories do have a hidden agenda - stuff they won't talk about but would do if given a majority - I hope it's an overhaul/dismantling/privatisation of the CBC.
[updated Wed Sep 24 15:23:15 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 15:23
kschell
I agree. Ridculous to be spending our tax dollars to air Wheel of Fortune and Jeopardy. Not to mention their obvious bias.
[updated Wed Sep 24 15:29:54 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 15:29
Hey Lex, notice how Harper's hidden agenda got swallowed up by trash talk and trivialities? Funny about that.
Mr. Harper would indeed dismantle the CBC, piece by piece, if need be, He'd sell of the post office and emasculate the wheat board. He would cut support for any disadvantaged group you want to name.
He would be more likely to support America's wars (and reduction in our rights and freedoms), less likely to care for the environment, our children and theirs and on and on. He is most likely to agree with Big Oil or any other corporate bigwigs.
Mr. Harper would throw away the key in the case of 14-year olds. But corporate executives, who defraud us a million times worse, they get golden parachutes, no matter their companies' performance. And protection from all comers, some poor individual consumer or employee (or emasculated regulator).
How sweet is that?
[updated Wed Sep 24 21:13:16 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 21:13
kschell
rsharp, I don't understand how you can say Harper and the CPC are beholden to big business. That was the Liberal's constituency, as evidenced by the Sponsorship scandal, among other things.
That's why the libs have no money for a campaign today. Since Jean Chretien changed the election financing laws to screw Paul Martin, the Liberals have not been able to get the millions they got every year from big business.
The CPC gets its money from individual Canadians, a few dollars at a time, and out fund raises the Liberal party about 3 or 4 to 1. The money that Harper raised for his leadership campaign came over 90% from individuals.
In fact Harper has said in the past he doesn't believe taxpayers should bail out private companies.
If any party is the party of big business, it has been the Liberals for a long time.
I can't believe we are still hearing this 'hidden agenda' crap.
[updated Wed Sep 24 22:25:02 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 22:25
C'mon. A few million bucks to a few marketing/communications shysters in Quebec flogging the Canadian flag in hockey rinks? Big scandal.
Harper is so pro-corporate America/Canada (is there any left of the latter?), only a f++l can't see it.
Who would look after everyday Canadians? And who would look after corporations and the rich?
If you don't know the answer, you are disqualified on October 14.
[updated Wed Sep 24 22:55:31 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 22:55
Lex Llewdor
You utterly failed to address the questions asked of you.
[updated Thu Sep 25 12:55:18 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 12:55
k. Which would they be? I can't follow the trail.
I can tell you Mr. Harper is a veritable Neanderthal, by which I mean really backwards. Kids can't have sex. Kids can be sent to prison for life.
He's pro-war, anti-environment, anti-disadvantaged groups, and on and on.
His love for anything corporate and America is the most sickening. Because America is the most sickening spectacle of all. These guys (and a few gals) are the worst thing to hit this planet, ever. Ever.
[updated Thu Sep 25 18:32:50 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 18:32
kschell
What, no one who disagrees with you is allowed to vote? Give me a break.
When you are ready for serious discussion of the issues instead of your ridiculous scare-mongering let me know. I don't have time to waste with fanatics.
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:05:16 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 09:05
A joke!. That was a joke. You and yous can vote us back to the stone age if you wish. That was another joke.
k. I'm not the funniest guy in the world. But I'm not a fanatic either. Please, no name-calling.
[updated Fri Sep 26 19:39:42 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 19:39
Lex Llewdor
Would you rather have the government step in and impose wage controls? Because that's what you're proposing in your objection to those "golden parachutes". Being a CEO is hard - Ben & Jerry's Ice Cream is an excellent case study of what happens when people decide that executives shouldn't earn executive salaries.
The wheat board is a price control. It benefits no one.
[updated Thu Sep 25 12:54:14 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 12:54
Peter3
The Conservative vote in Montreal must have crashed massively and the Bloc increased dramatically for a purely Montreal-based shift to be the explanation for the Quebec numbers. I'm guessing this went down poorly in Quebec City, where the Conservatives have high hopes, and elsewhere.
I am pretty sure that the backlash has a lot less to do with any specific cuts that might have been made than it does to Mr. Harper's injudicious description of the artistic community as gala-going parasites. That came across as mean-spirited,and although it undoubtedly appealed to his base it confirms the suspicions many have held about him and will not help him get where he needs to get in Quebec and Ontario for a majority to be possible.
[updated Wed Sep 24 16:12:54 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 16:12
Lex Llewdor
But within 5 points is a statistical tie in this survey. This is an important threshhold.
[updated Wed Sep 24 15:24:47 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 15:24
Foxer
Arguably true. It would be even more arguable if they were within 3 points, but yes, you're correct.
I suspect tho that right now there is a gap between them, even tho technically there might not be.
If they get any closer together - then i think the newspapers will be getting very excited and dion will be getting very defensive.
[updated Wed Sep 24 15:38:41 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 15:38
skoblin
I notice EKOS has been paralleling Nik's findings rather closely. EKOS also had the Bloc up a significant margin in their last poll as well. Both polls also have the NDP consistently in 19-21 range with the Liberals sliding - both have the same 5 point margin between the two parties. I can't make any sense of the Harris numbers which consistently have the NDP around 16 and the Greens in double digits. Personally, I think the Bloc numbers are not necessarily exaggerated. Harper's tough on crime policy statement and disparagement of artists recently may have been good fodder for the West and rural Ontario but I think it may have blown his chances in Quebec. The Tories have fallen off about 10 solid points in Quebec and this has been a steady fall, so I doubt it is a statistical blip. Layton's appearance with Duceppe at an Art's benefit though was good strategy on his part. I expect to see the Quebec federalist vote now turning to the NDP as the alternative to the Bloc, but will still probably not pan out in many seats. The apparent Liberal collapse still has me amazed by its extent. I though 16% was about as far as they could fall in Quebec, but now done to 14%. Even more surprised by Atlantic Canada. My impression was that Atlantic Canada and Toronto especially were the two areas the Liberals could rely upon. But now two polls in a roll showing them statistically tied with the NDP for 2nd place. Liberals seem to be in free fall as well in the West. Considering Liberal support is usually above the NDP in Alberta, Nik's numbers must mean that the Liberals have fallen significantly behind the Dippers in both BC and Manitoba. These numbers probably are going to mean Dion's handlers are going to be telling him to go offensive in the debate which will take him out of his cool bureaucratic comfort zone. Not sure how this will go over. Considering the numbers now look pretty good for every other party leader, he may come across as the most desperate candidate (which he is now) which I doubt will be to his benefit.
[updated Wed Sep 24 15:25:44 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 15:25
Foxer
I agree with you pretty much verbatim. I was just noting the ekos numbers this morning.
Ekos has a very very large sample, about 3 times most of the others. So i tend to believe it's accurate. The fact that it's so close to nik's numbers also suggests to me that those two have got the story right.
And it's not a pretty story for the libs. They are poised for a complete collapse of their support. They are right now about where kim campbell was in her campaign.
If the debates go badly for dion, I suspect that we will see the libs collapse in the last two weeks and massive support bleed to the greens and Dippers. Only in the GTA is liberal support still holding.
Dion is going to get desperate and desperate leaders do desperate things. Given his personality, he will likely decide on a course of action on his own, and it's likely to be very over-the-top. Historically that just drives people away more - no one likes someone who's desperate.
[updated Wed Sep 24 15:46:12 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 15:46
skoblin
Foxer, I tend to agree with you regarding Nik and EKOS having it right and Harris being off base. But I do not think you will see a massive bleeding of Liberal support to the Greens at least, except in a few BC ridings. If Liberal voters decide to switch in the last two weeks it will be for strategic reasons, which means the NDP. Still, one must count on a certain base level of Liberal support which will not disappear, despite how bad things get for the Liberals. Interestingly, EKOS has the NDP as the most favoured 2nd party, especially among the Bloc - with more Bloc supporters seeing the NDP as 2nd choice then Liberals and CPC combined. This lends credence to my thinking that the Tories may have blown it in Quebec. Bringing up culture in Quebec is as bad as bringing up sovereignty. Considering that Quebec was the most volatile region in the country, I see very little further uptick in CPC numbers now. The real battle in Quebec now will be between the NDP and Bloc for wavering Bloc supporters and NDP and Liberals for wavering Liberal supporters.In the rest of the country it will be between the Greens and the NDP for softening Liberal support, with the advantage for the NDP. Unless the Liberals can somehow make Dion disappear or place a hex on Harper and make him commit a major gaffe, the Liberal campaign is finished. I don't see any more rabbits coming out of their hat....and they may not even have a hat fairly soon.
[updated Wed Sep 24 16:01:25 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 16:01
Foxer
Oh i didn't mean to suggest that the greens would get the lion's share of the vote - far from it. Just that the libs would bleed to both parties. I don't think the ndp will get all the votes. The cpc will even pick up some from 'blue liberals' or 'neo-cons' as they're often called who just can't bring themselves to go more to the left and vote ndp.
As to the cpc support in quebec - i don't know if that story is over just yet. I agree that the culture thing was a mistake, pure and simple. But i don't think that chapter is over, and if bloc supporters do move to the ndp, then it could be the cpc who benefits. And there is still a fact that will resonate with Quebecers - the bloc will not be able to do anything at all for quebec. At no time will they bring quebec any goodies at all. It made some sense when they were seperatist - but now?
If harper subtly sends the clear message "hey - if you want more arts, more funding, etc then you better send some CPC reps to ottawa because nobody else will be making any decisions" - then I think that message will resonate a little. Many may go to the ndp instead - but if it weakens the bloc then it improves harper's chances in key ridings.
And the picture in ontario is not looking good for the libs. They are still uber strong in the GTA - but outside that harper is gaining and is ahead of them. He might well pick up a number of seats there. He's GOING to sweep the west almost completely, with the ndp only doing decent in bc. The libs are going to get hurt bad.
The time just after the debates will tell the story i think, but unless dion pulls SOMETHING out of his hat we're looking at a further liberal collapse.
[updated Wed Sep 24 16:11:57 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 16:11
HC in AB
With regard to EKOS, I was actually polled by them about 10 days ago.. (2nd time being polled in 40 years of being a bit of a political junkie). It was and automatic dialer with a recorded message asking "Press 1 if you intend to vote Liberal, Press 2 if you intend to vote NDP etc.". Is this common now instead of using people to call personally to ask the questions? Just curious if anybody knows anything about this.
[updated Wed Sep 24 16:23:39 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 16:23
Foxer
Not 'common' - not new either.
That's what allows them to collect such a large sample.
Like most polling methods, it's been debated as to if it's better or worse. Most companies have something a little different about them - like nik doesn't give people a list of who they might vote for, etc.
I suspect it's as accurate as any other method. The large sample size is nice, more samples generally mean more accuracy.
[updated Wed Sep 24 16:29:11 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 16:29
MSH
Yes, it is increasingly common to use predictive dial systems and IVR or touch-tome response machines for such polling.
Nanos/SES has actually never done that--they ask in person and they also ask an open question instead of giving a chose (they ask simply "who would you vote for" and wait for an answer, instead of presenting choices). They also do not ask for "leaning" or otherwise extrapolate support from undecideds. On the extrapolation part I think Harris might be amongst the ones that still do that.
The press release from Nanos explains why Nanos (formerly SES) has always shown more support for the Liberals and mentions these differences from the others (the rolling average and regular daily tracking make a difference too). When not presented with the options people forget about the greens so they get less support from less committed voters, and being the most familiar brand the Liberals are first to come to mind when less commited voters are put on the spot with an open question. It is most similar to the polling booth situation as far as making people think about their choice. True, a ballot makes it multiple choice again, but the candidate name is emphasised over the party on a ballot, and the importance of voting makes people think the way they have to when answering an open question, thus Nanos seems to be most accurate (even before the 2006 election they seemed the most accurate).
The Liberals must be quite anxious right now, because the Tories have more than 10 points spread on them in a poll using methodology that favours them the most, and this far into the campaign have absolutely no momentum advantage over the Tories. The poll paints a picture where you don't need to vote Liberal to block a Harper majority--there are a good many ridings where left-leaning voters can confidently vote NDP and not increase the Tory seat count and more people see that now. The NDP were brilliant to remind traditionally timid anti-conservatives about the Liberal's voting record--planting the idea that granting Liberals balance-of-power in a minority is nearly equivalent to a Harper majority, so might as well pick the "principled" choice and gamble a bit that the NDP will be a more aggressive watchdog in a re-constituted Harper minority.
[updated Wed Sep 24 16:51:06 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 16:51
HC in AB
Mr. Harper and his organisers ar the consumate political strategists. Let's face it, they know that Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver will be as nice to them as Albertans will be to the Liberals. They know that this will play well in a lot ridings where their vote was 8 to 12 points behind the Liberals in 2006. In these ridings, if it moves or solidifies 2 or 3 votes out a hundred, that could be the difference to a majority.
The arts "thing" will only play well to these urban voters, the rest of the could give a "fiddler's f**k".
[updated Wed Sep 24 16:10:32 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 16:10
Foxer
Vancouver is going pretty blue this time out actually HC. He stands to win in north van, west van, quadra and a few other ridings.
And greater vancouver has always elected some CPC or equivilant.
I think only toronto and montreal will really care.
[updated Wed Sep 24 16:13:40 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 16:13
Rosebud in BC
I heard the other day that with 6 viable parties running in Quebec and 5 viable parties running in the rest of Canada that it would lower the percentage of popular vote needed to win a majority. If this is true, the Conservatives could be in majority territory already. With the Greens coming on so strong on the west coast, this splitting of the vote may help Harper. Having said that, the Liberal candidate in the Saanich the Islands riding (where the NDP candidate quit, but his name will stay on the ballot) is an ex Green Party member and now I think will easily be elected. The left vote will mostly go to the Liberals in this case.
[updated Wed Sep 24 16:48:07 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 16:48
Lex Llewdor
I don't see how you count 5 viable partis outside Quebec (or 6 within it), but you're right that the threshhold for a majority is lower than it was in the Mulroney days. But I also think it's higher than it was in the Chrétien era, because the regional fracturing isn't as strong and the Reform/PC vote split is gone.
[updated Wed Sep 24 17:52:01 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 17:52
Foxer
Hard to say - the greens and ndp could very well play the same roll the reform and the bloc did in chretien's day.
But i'm not seeing a majority numbers wise yet. If harper were at 39 tho, that would actually be a majority. (tho thinking about it chretien did it with 38.4 or whatever, so maybe you're right and it is slightly higher.)
[updated Wed Sep 24 18:24:57 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 18:24
Rosebud in BC
Sorry, fingers on wrong keys, it should have read 4 viable parties outside Quebec and 5 inside. I believe it was Donalo today who seems to think that if the trend continues the Liberals may get only Montreal and Toronto. The Tories are leading in all the Liberal seats in Vancouver. But it still has 3 weeks to go, and anything can happen.
[updated Wed Sep 24 18:34:35 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 18:34
Foxer
Anything can happen, but it's getting very late in the campaign for a 'turn around'.
Dion has one chance - the debates. He would have to do VERY well and come out the winner in the debates. But the fact is that's not his strong suit. He generally does not do well in debates.
[updated Wed Sep 24 19:25:35 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 19:25
Lex Llewdor
Dion's not likely to make up any ground in the English debate unless someone else makes a big mistake. The French debate is better for him, but Duceppe is an excellent debater. Though, Dion's doing poorly enough in Quebec he can't really do worse - he's got very little to lose.
[updated Wed Sep 24 20:09:58 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 20:09
Foxer
yeah - he's got little to lose but he's gotta do better than 'break even' if he's going to stop the slide. He's got to look fantastic and i don't think he's going to.
[updated Wed Sep 24 21:10:15 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 21:10
Lex Llewdor
As I mentioned yesterday, I think Vancouver Centre will be an entertaining riding to watch.
Hedy Fry has been the MP there for years, and handily defeated NDP hero Svend Robinson last time out.
But, the Liberals are fading badly in BC, and Hedy Fry faces two high-profile opponents in former provincial cabinet minister Lorne Maynecourt and former provincial Green Party leader Adrianne Carr.
It's an odd riding. It's the gayest riding in the country, and it includes both very wealthy and very poor sections. I used to live there. It features regular protests (good for the NDP). It's home to the head office of the Fraser Institute (good for the CPC). It contains Stanley Park (good for the Greens). Hedy is a high-profile incumbent (good for the Liberals).
I look forward to election night.
[updated Wed Sep 24 17:57:39 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 17:57
Foxer
I think hedy's day is done. I have no idea who's going to win it tho :) It's going to be a nail biter i think.
[updated Wed Sep 24 18:27:14 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 18:27
psiclone
Although it may turn out to be a very smart startegic move by Harper to go after a niche group such as arts and culture that received 3 billion dollars last budget and the increase in budget was only slowed down by 40 million so Harper has a lot ammunition here if he wants to keep this fight going. First off most of the cultural elite are not voting conservatine anyways and note how Layton was there very quickly attacking Harper so in a weird way it is like Harper giving a few points over to the NDP. I am reasonable certain that Harper does not want his numbers to be too high else the strategic voters may come into play so picking a fight and taking a hit or two might be just what the doctor ordered. I did note that it took Dion a long time to respond and his response did not seem to get a lot of play so I am not sure how the LPC numbers in Quebec might pan out.
[updated Wed Sep 24 18:16:25 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 18:16
Foxer
I think he could have made the same move without being quite so inflammatory. I think he misstepped there, but we'll see. It's a long way from over and there are other prorities on quebec's plate.
[updated Wed Sep 24 18:30:13 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 18:30
hsingh
Majority! Majority! Majority!
[updated Wed Sep 24 14:18:28 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 14:18
26 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
Interesting dion's leadership scores fell again last night. Sooner or later that's going to translate into very bad news for dion - he SHOULD have had a bump from his platform release but instead it looks like it was not well received by people at all. I think people really don't trust what he says.
That may be in part to the fact liberals have broken promises so often - but I also have to wonder if it isn't due to the vagueness and complexity of the liberal plan. It's a very complex plan that's very short on details, making it hard to understand even for people who study that kind of stuff for a living.
I think a lot of people look at that and immediately assume the politician is hiding something. Regardless of the politician.
Dion should have spelt things out much more clearly - like 'how much carbon will the green tax save'? Simple things like that are very important to people.
I think dion's problem is he's a concept guy - but really falls short on details.
[updated Wed Sep 24 14:52:12 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 14:52
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner (suspended)
This poll and many others appear to be holding very steady for the Conservatives and the Best PM numbers show Harper (39%) increasing his lead over Dion (11%). Not in majority territory yet but would deliver a solid minority government.
[updated Wed Sep 24 14:59:19 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 14:59
5 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MSH
This is the electoral equivalent to World War II, and very unfortunately for Dion and the Liberals they find themselves playing the role of Germany, fighting a losing battle on two fronts: To the west he has hit an immovable wall in the "Commonwealth/American" Tories, and to the east where he has previously taken ground easily his army, starving on meagre campaign rations, now faces the resurgent "Soviet" NDP. (apologies to Liberal supporters/apologists who might see an inference to Hitler when I mention Dion--Dion is certainly not the equivalent to the notoriously evil Hitler, nor do I mean to imply we'd see negative consequences of that scale should Dion become PM--I very simply mean to compare the tactical situations of the war and the election campaign).
The lukewarm reaction to the Liberal platform may be the death knell. It seems not to dispel the image painted in the Tory "not worth the risk" attack ads but instead give them credibility. This week we've seen inconsistent budgetary estimates (casting doubt on the "revenue neutrality" of the "green shift" plan) as well as inconsistency in philosophy (a green shift plan that is supposed to be "tough on polluters" but is easy on "Ontario polluters" with breaks on gasoline and other carbon taxes that would impact that provinces manufacturing and transportation sectors..and now a promise to rescind income trust taxes...perhaps to bribe western voters with the biggest beef over the subject?).
Being an Albertan disgruntled with the Tories pulling a Trudeau-style turnabout on an economic policy in the trust tax grab, Dion's proposal to reverse the tax seems appealing...but being an Albertan I also view the Liberals with deep distrust--even more so than I have with Flaherty's brain trust. Trusts are a good vehicle to fund income-producing-but-depreciating assets, and making them tax free would promote the exploitation of established oil and gas fields to exhaustion, with the income being distributed to unit holders given priority over investment in new "greener" technology.
Since that aspect of an income trust tax cut seems to run counter to the "green shift" I just KNOW there has to be a big asterisk on that platform plank written in invisible ink. I suspect other trusts like REITs will benefit fully but royalty trusts will be slapped with some other punitive measure of a sort that would make Trudeau and his middle finger proud. I think many westerners have been coloured "unimpressed". The Tories "not worth the risk" attack campaign is "negative done right" and very shrewd and sharp. It won't make voters love them but it reinforces Harper's economic track record.
Canada might be struggling but we've been doing much better than the US in the past year under Harper's leadership, and without a doubt it is the US-led credit crunch and not Harper policies that sparked the downturn seen round the globe. We here see that and view a PM with an economist background and pragmatic approach as the safest, if not ideal, choice leading into potential recessionary times.
In the east "Comrade Layton" is looking pretty confident too...and he is running a surprisingly sharp campaign, notwithstanding what he..ahem..might've been smoking. Not since Broadbent ran the politburo have they sustained support in the 20s for any great time. Whether or not the NDP's policies are rooted in reality, at least they are consistent and clear and different from the government (at a time when the Liberals' elite sound rather NDPish and the Tories are increasingly harder to distinguish from disgruntled former Martinites still in the Liberal tent)--very much what voters crave at the moment. Those t-shirts with the Dion Liberal voting record...genius strategy!
With "der Führer Dion" fighting on two fronts and presenting a platform that is a bit hastily put together the Liberals are looking a bit desperate. The game is changing--a majority for the Tories is still very questionable, but now the NDP are edging towards statistical tie with Liberals. Strategic voting will not work for Dion at that point...not if voters want a minority that would REALLY keep the Tories in check.
[updated Wed Sep 24 16:24:08 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 16:24
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Don't Harper's Wars on Terror/Crime Violate UN Conventions? Look at these:
Article 37 (rights of kids)
Parties shall ensure that:
(a) No child shall be subjected to torture or other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment. Neither capital punishment nor life imprisonment without possibility of release shall be imposed for offences committed by persons below eighteen years of age;
Now, let's not even talk about Omar Kadr, whom Mr. Harper has left twisting (and tortured) in the wind down at Gitmo. Or his age of sexual consent madness.
14 yeal olds! 15 year olds! What can this man be thinking?
I'll tell you what, he doesn't care about right and wrong. He doesn't care about facts. He's an ideological freak with a hidden agenda. To quote Mr. Harper, we won't recognize Canada when's he's done with it.
That's why ABC or ABH has to take hold, and fast.
[updated Wed Sep 24 20:07:46 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 20:07
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