Last night’s tracking showed a noticeable jump in Bloc support in Quebec coinciding with attacks on Stephen Harper’s views and comments related to culture.
Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Tories holding strong nationally at 37% support. The Liberals trail 11 points behind at 26%, followed by the NDP at 21%, the Bloc Québécois at 9% and the Green Party at 7 %. The Bloc Québécois has regained ground in Quebec, while the Conservatives and Liberals remain statistically tied in the province of Ontario. At 39%, Stephen Harper heads Canada’s choice for Prime Minister, followed by Jack Layton at 17%. Stéphane Dion drops to 11%, with Elizabeth May scoring 5% and Gilles Duceppe 3%.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 22, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,003, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 37 (-1)
- Liberal Party 26 (-1)
- NDP 21 (NC)
- BQ 9% (+1)
- Green Party 7% (+1)
- Undecided 16% (-1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 39% (+2)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 17% (-1)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 11% (-2)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (+1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
- None of them 9% (-1)
- Unsure 16% (+1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 108 (-5)
- Jack Layton 47 (+3)
- Stephane Dion 32 (-6)
- Gilles Duceppe 19 (+6)
- Elizabeth May 18 (+5)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Definately a spike for bloc support in quebec. A mistake on harper's part to blo... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 24 Sep 14:15
Majority! Majority! Majority!... more
hsingh (British Columbia) 24 Sep 14:18
Yes it is a spike for Bloc support, but according to a reporter from LaPresse mo... more
Rosebud in BC (British Columbia) 24 Sep 14:41
That's possible - i think it will generally affect them in quebec a little for ... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 24 Sep 14:45
If the Tories do have a hidden agenda - stuff they won't talk about but would do... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 24 Sep 15:23
I agree. Ridculous to be spending our tax dollars to air Wheel of Fortune and Je... more
kschell (Ontario) 24 Sep 15:29
Comments
Foxer
Definately a spike for bloc support in quebec. A mistake on harper's part to blow off the funding cuts like that. He's right of course - they DID increase funding overall - but now he looks a little callous towards the arts community.
It'll probably be short lived, but only if he comes forward with a much more positive message for quebec to repair this mistake.
Libs down again and the ndp isn't - thats still within the margin of error of course, but it's not what the libs wanted to see. They're within 5 points now.
[updated Wed Sep 24 14:15:54 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 14:15
36 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
hsingh
Majority! Majority! Majority!
[updated Wed Sep 24 14:18:28 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 14:18
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Foxer
lol - are you hoping for one or hoping to scare liberal/ndp voters with the threat of one? :)
[updated Wed Sep 24 14:46:08 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 14:46
christine
There will be no majority with these numbers. In order to win a majority government in this country ideally you should be leading in the two provinces with the most seats--Ontario and Quebec, or at the very least, be competitive in one and have a sizeable lead in the other.
This is not the case for the Conservatives. Look at the regional numbers for Ontario and Quebec if you don't believe me, The Bloc has a commanding lead at 40 per cent,with the Conservatives well back at 23 per cent.As for Ontario, the Conservatives and the Liberals are tied at 37 per cent. It doesn't matter that the Conservatives are leading nationally at 38 per cent. This number reflects huge leads in areas where seats are relatively few, namely the west.
[updated Wed Sep 24 15:48:16 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 15:48
skoblin
I think your numbers may be off, Christine. Harper only needs around 30 more seats than last time to reach majority country. With the Liberals falling off significantly in Atlantic Canada and down as well in BC, Harper may not need to have a majority in Ontario to reach the majority plateau. 10 or 15 new seats in Ontario, a few in Quebec and about a dozen new ones in Atlantic/BC/Manitoba may be sufficient to put him over the top.
[updated Wed Sep 24 16:08:21 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 16:08
christine
Look at the margin of error for Atlantic Canada. With a margin or error of nearly 10 per cent I wouldn't put much faith in them. Plus there is a great deal of volatility; Take a look at the five day regional numbers which suggest a much closer race.
As for western Canada, the high number here for the Conservatives comes in large measure from Alberta; BC, with more seats is more competitive.
[updated Wed Sep 24 16:20:47 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 16:20
Foxer
Christine - the regional numbers for bc that are bc specific for ALL polls show that it isn't even remotely competative here. The libs are completely tanking. The ndp is about the same or higher as the libs, but still far behind. The cpc has about double the liberal vote.
Look at the specific province by province breakdowns for nanos, ekos, the 'battleground riding' polls, etc and they all paint the same story.
And the ekos numbers for the atlantics, which have only a 4 point spread, show the cpc ahead by about 5 points.
There's little doubt that everywhere except quebec the CPC is winning, and in most places by a fair amount.
[updated Wed Sep 24 16:26:27 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 16:26
christine
You are missing the point. I never denied that the Conservatives were ahead in BC, only that in comparison to Alberta, it was a closer race. (67 per cent for Conservatives in Alberta vs 40 per cent according to Nanos 5 day regional, followed by the Liberals at 33, and the NDP at 20).
My point was that although the Conservatives might be leading nationally (as well as in select regions) they were not--ACCORDING TO THIS POLL--leading in the two provinces with the most seats, Ontario and Quebec. Thus, ACCORDING TO THIS POLL, the Conservatives are not likely to win a majority.
[updated Wed Sep 24 16:46:42 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 16:46
Peter3
It is worth looking at Jean Chretien's 1997 performance. He took 101 of 103 Ontario ridings with just under 50% of the vote. That gave him a majority nationally with 38%.
Taking 98+ seats with less than 50% of the vote is only possible with an extremely efficient distribution of votes. Mr.Harper does not have anything like this working for him at the moment.
One of the issues with the Nanos numbers that inflates Conservative fortunes in Ontario is the regional clustering of northern and eastern Ontario. Eastern Ontario will see large Conservative pluralities in many ridings. In the north the fight will be between the NDP and Liberals, with Conservative candidates only really seriously in play in a couple of places.
Quebec is also a lot more complicated than Montreal and the rest of Quebec, which is how it tends to get discussed.
This business about 5 parties being in play does not scan, at least for the moment. It only matters if the votes are distributed in certain ways, and it is far from clear that much has changed in most of the country. There is time for that, but there is no clear indication of anything yet.
[updated Wed Sep 24 17:35:15 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 17:35
Lex Llewdor
The Reform/PC vote split in 1997 was a perfect scenario to deliver an easy majority to the Liberals. The Conservatives today aren't likely to benefit from anything similar on the Liberal/NDP side of the ticket.
[updated Wed Sep 24 18:00:01 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 18:00
Peter3
agreed
[updated Wed Sep 24 18:06:24 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 18:06
Foxer
Dion's vote distribution is not terribly efficient either tho - it's highly concentrated. ANd the ndp seems to be getting fairly well distributed gains, which will tend to hurt the libs.
There's little chance of harper pulling a 'chretien', but even now reputable sources are saying 145 seats with basically what he's got today - that's damn near a majority, he wouldn't have to go up more than a point or so to tip the scales.
[updated Wed Sep 24 18:22:06 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 18:22
Lex Llewdor
When you're polling in the mid-20s, concentration is good. Having their vote spread out evenly across the country is how the PCs were reduced to 2 seats in 1993.
For example, the Liberals are running at 12% or so in Alberta (small-sample-size alert). That's good for them, because even at 20% they're not going to win any seats. That extra 8% would be wasted. He'd be better off if every Albertan Liberal moved to Regina or Vancouver so he could win a couple extra seats.
[updated Wed Sep 24 18:34:19 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 18:34
Foxer
Well the problem with that is that while it will win them a few seats in those highly concentrated areas, they won't win anywhere near what they need.
Consider for example bc. while they are polling at somethign around 20 percent, they'll be lucky to get 2 seats. And in ontario where they're 'neck and neck' with the cpc (depending on whose polls you're reading), they're likely to get less than half the seats
So when we see numbers like 26 percent canada wide, it actually represents a significant drop in seats.
Concentration with low numbers is great- if you're content with 35 seats. But that's death for the libs, and it means every point they lose is likely outside of their core areas, putting more seats at risk.
More importantly tho, it means you've got much less room for a 'break out'. For example - if you're polling 35 percent in ontario, and the cpc is polling 39 percent, if the vote distribution is even then if you can switch momentum you'll pick up a lot of seats just by increasing a few points.
But if you're 100 percent in a handful of ridings and only 30 percent elsewhere - a rise in support by a few points isn't going to help. The cpc will still sweep the province for the most part. Plus it's harder to get your vote out in those other ridings.
If things slip much more for the libs, they could be down to 35 seats or so this election, and while they will be very strong within those seats the fact is that will kill them
It's good for the ndp to concentrate votes - they don't expect to be running the country. But for the libs - if they lose that bad then they'll be essentially wiped out in canada with very minimal representation outside of core areas which the libs can chip away at, and with no money.
[updated Wed Sep 24 19:09:21 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 19:09
Hope
Hi Christine,
I hope you're right. I think minority government is good - unbridled power bad. I think the minority would have worked just fine if the leaders would have cut the pecker stretching and got on with what we elected them to do - run the country.
[updated Wed Sep 24 18:16:19 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 18:16
Foxer
Do you think the pecker-stretching will stop at this point? I kind of doubt it.
Minorities are good to a point, but at some point you need a majority to actually get things done.
[updated Wed Sep 24 18:22:49 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 18:22
Foxer
Well looking at todays polls the libs are much lower in bc, and that is the truth. And because bc has a much larger percent of the population it weighs heavier than alberta does. Likewise - man and sask actually equal alberta's population.
So while it's true that alberta affects the overall 'western' vote, it's not by that much.
LIkewise in ontario the gta skews the votes for the libs. it affects the overall average, but not by THAT much.
[updated Wed Sep 24 18:20:34 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 18:20
Lex Llewdor
On that note, today's EKOS numbers hand the Liberals only one seat in BC using Hill & Knowlton's seat calculator.
Now, seat projection is a very fuzzy business, and it doesn't appear Hill & Knowlton have updated their calculator at all since 2006, but it still makes Liberal fortunes in BC look pretty bleak.
[updated Wed Sep 24 18:57:53 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 18:57
Foxer
I think they did change the algorithms since then, but no matter what it still can't account for regional issues unless you do it manually riding by riding.
Using nik's numbers they only get two seats. And that's using the national numbers, not the regional ones.
The bc libs are very likely to be all but wiped out. Worse for them, the NDP looks like it will stilll be fairly firmly entrenched in the metro's, so it's not just the cpc they'll have to fight to win seats back in the future.
In fact - the libs may be down to as few as 3 or 4 seats in all of western canada. And with the new seat distribution coming down the line from the census, that could mean almost 100 seats where the libs have virtually no influence at all and the ndp is the "other" party in the metro areas.
How will the libs ever rise to have a majority again without support in that region? That's just under 1/3 the votes in canada, and it's not likely they'll ever sweep ontario and the other provinces again for a long long time.
[updated Wed Sep 24 19:19:12 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 19:19
Lex Llewdor
They should hold at least one Vancouver riding (South or Centre - maybe both), and they'll hold Ralph Goodale's riding in Regina. That's probably it for them west of Manitoba.
Ouch.
[updated Wed Sep 24 20:08:10 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 20:08
Foxer
Yeah, that's about my count. they MAY take one in manitoba. And vancenter is really up in the air for them.
So - 5 max, 2 min - that's pretty ugly.
[updated Wed Sep 24 21:09:02 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 21:09
Lex Llewdor
Four high profile candidates. It'll be a war.
[updated Thu Sep 25 12:50:11 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 12:50
christine
Yeah, I wonder about their regional seat projections myself. Plugging in the Ontario numbers from today's Nanos poll gives the following results:
Cons: 26 seats (40 in 2006)
Libs: 70 seats (54 in 2006)
NDP 10 seats (12 in 2006)
Grn 0 seats (0 in 2006)
[updated Wed Sep 24 19:43:41 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 19:43
Lex Llewdor
I noticed that. You'd really have to break out Toronto separately to make that one work.
[updated Wed Sep 24 20:06:36 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 20:06
christine
The Quebec results using H&K's seat predictor are even more bizarre:
Cons: 0 seats (11 in 2006)
Libs: 1 seat (12 in 2006)
NDP 1 seat ( 1 from by-election)
Bloc 73 seats (50 in 2006)
Grn 0 seats (0 in 2006)
[updated Wed Sep 24 19:52:46 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 19:52
skoblin
Christine, you are right about the high margin of error in Nik's Atlantic numbers, but EKOS also show the Liberals at around 30% in that region. This compares to 54% for the Liberals in the last election. The CPC meanwhile is up around 10 points in both polls since the last election. How many more Tory seats will this be? Not sure, but one would think at least maybe 5 or 6. Nik has the Liberals down 10 points in West since the last election and this mirrors EKOS findings of the Liberals at 19% in Manitoba and 20% in BC. A three way split for the anti-Tory vote in BC will probably mean a pick up of around 4 or 5 seats for the CPC in BC as well and maybe 1 in Manitoba. Like I mentioned, this only means picking up around 20 seats between Ontario and Quebec. With the numbers as they look now, eminently possible. This, without any appreciable increase in Tory support in Quebec due to the splitting of the non-Conservative federalist vote between the Libs and the Dippers.
[updated Wed Sep 24 16:40:26 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 16:40
Foxer
the numbers don't say 'majority' at this time - but they're damn close. Harper would only have to go up a hair on voting day to win a majority, and if the libs collapse continues he may not even need to do that.
[updated Wed Sep 24 16:31:37 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 16:31
HC in AB
You cannot treat Ontario as 37 to 37. You have to look at Toronto separately. The number of seats in Toronto will saw off against Alberta (more or less) with about the same numbers (only reversed). If you look at the rest of Ontario a gain of 10 to 15 seats is very possible with a spread there of about 10 points, compared to a virtual dead heat in 2006. Looking a the numbers overall I would guess that the Conservatives will likely come out of the Altantic with no gain (Williams ABC), maybe pick up 4 or 5 in Quebec, 10 to 15 in Ontario, get 3 of the 7 that they don't already have on the prairies and pick up about 10 in BC. That would give them around 154 to 155 total, but if they dont gain at least 20 between Ontario and Quebec, it won't be a majority.
[updated Wed Sep 24 16:35:42 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 16:35
Foxer
Interesting dion's leadership scores fell again last night. Sooner or later that's going to translate into very bad news for dion - he SHOULD have had a bump from his platform release but instead it looks like it was not well received by people at all. I think people really don't trust what he says.
That may be in part to the fact liberals have broken promises so often - but I also have to wonder if it isn't due to the vagueness and complexity of the liberal plan. It's a very complex plan that's very short on details, making it hard to understand even for people who study that kind of stuff for a living.
I think a lot of people look at that and immediately assume the politician is hiding something. Regardless of the politician.
Dion should have spelt things out much more clearly - like 'how much carbon will the green tax save'? Simple things like that are very important to people.
I think dion's problem is he's a concept guy - but really falls short on details.
[updated Wed Sep 24 14:52:12 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 14:52
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westerner (suspended)
This poll and many others appear to be holding very steady for the Conservatives and the Best PM numbers show Harper (39%) increasing his lead over Dion (11%). Not in majority territory yet but would deliver a solid minority government.
[updated Wed Sep 24 14:59:19 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 14:59
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MSH
This is the electoral equivalent to World War II, and very unfortunately for Dion and the Liberals they find themselves playing the role of Germany, fighting a losing battle on two fronts: To the west he has hit an immovable wall in the "Commonwealth/American" Tories, and to the east where he has previously taken ground easily his army, starving on meagre campaign rations, now faces the resurgent "Soviet" NDP. (apologies to Liberal supporters/apologists who might see an inference to Hitler when I mention Dion--Dion is certainly not the equivalent to the notoriously evil Hitler, nor do I mean to imply we'd see negative consequences of that scale should Dion become PM--I very simply mean to compare the tactical situations of the war and the election campaign).
The lukewarm reaction to the Liberal platform may be the death knell. It seems not to dispel the image painted in the Tory "not worth the risk" attack ads but instead give them credibility. This week we've seen inconsistent budgetary estimates (casting doubt on the "revenue neutrality" of the "green shift" plan) as well as inconsistency in philosophy (a green shift plan that is supposed to be "tough on polluters" but is easy on "Ontario polluters" with breaks on gasoline and other carbon taxes that would impact that provinces manufacturing and transportation sectors..and now a promise to rescind income trust taxes...perhaps to bribe western voters with the biggest beef over the subject?).
Being an Albertan disgruntled with the Tories pulling a Trudeau-style turnabout on an economic policy in the trust tax grab, Dion's proposal to reverse the tax seems appealing...but being an Albertan I also view the Liberals with deep distrust--even more so than I have with Flaherty's brain trust. Trusts are a good vehicle to fund income-producing-but-depreciating assets, and making them tax free would promote the exploitation of established oil and gas fields to exhaustion, with the income being distributed to unit holders given priority over investment in new "greener" technology.
Since that aspect of an income trust tax cut seems to run counter to the "green shift" I just KNOW there has to be a big asterisk on that platform plank written in invisible ink. I suspect other trusts like REITs will benefit fully but royalty trusts will be slapped with some other punitive measure of a sort that would make Trudeau and his middle finger proud. I think many westerners have been coloured "unimpressed". The Tories "not worth the risk" attack campaign is "negative done right" and very shrewd and sharp. It won't make voters love them but it reinforces Harper's economic track record.
Canada might be struggling but we've been doing much better than the US in the past year under Harper's leadership, and without a doubt it is the US-led credit crunch and not Harper policies that sparked the downturn seen round the globe. We here see that and view a PM with an economist background and pragmatic approach as the safest, if not ideal, choice leading into potential recessionary times.
In the east "Comrade Layton" is looking pretty confident too...and he is running a surprisingly sharp campaign, notwithstanding what he..ahem..might've been smoking. Not since Broadbent ran the politburo have they sustained support in the 20s for any great time. Whether or not the NDP's policies are rooted in reality, at least they are consistent and clear and different from the government (at a time when the Liberals' elite sound rather NDPish and the Tories are increasingly harder to distinguish from disgruntled former Martinites still in the Liberal tent)--very much what voters crave at the moment. Those t-shirts with the Dion Liberal voting record...genius strategy!
With "der Führer Dion" fighting on two fronts and presenting a platform that is a bit hastily put together the Liberals are looking a bit desperate. The game is changing--a majority for the Tories is still very questionable, but now the NDP are edging towards statistical tie with Liberals. Strategic voting will not work for Dion at that point...not if voters want a minority that would REALLY keep the Tories in check.
[updated Wed Sep 24 16:24:08 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 16:24
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Don't Harper's Wars on Terror/Crime Violate UN Conventions? Look at these:
Article 37 (rights of kids)
Parties shall ensure that:
(a) No child shall be subjected to torture or other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment. Neither capital punishment nor life imprisonment without possibility of release shall be imposed for offences committed by persons below eighteen years of age;
Now, let's not even talk about Omar Kadr, whom Mr. Harper has left twisting (and tortured) in the wind down at Gitmo. Or his age of sexual consent madness.
14 yeal olds! 15 year olds! What can this man be thinking?
I'll tell you what, he doesn't care about right and wrong. He doesn't care about facts. He's an ideological freak with a hidden agenda. To quote Mr. Harper, we won't recognize Canada when's he's done with it.
That's why ABC or ABH has to take hold, and fast.
[updated Wed Sep 24 20:07:46 EDT 2008]
24 Sep 20:07
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